ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

Again, GFS making it potentially stronger and persistent than last run.. and slightly north of the islands

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[Riptide]

Strong blocking ridge, heading WSW into the TC shredder at 150.

Where are you getting this? Cause @ 156hr. GFS has it north of the gap between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

That's pretty much where it is, it skirts the coast of Hispaniola later on. I really hate that island, but it has great and strong people living on it considering what they deal with.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Up to 70%. That almost guarantees an upgrade during the next TWO. According to the statistics, 100% of past storms to receive a 70% or higher chance for development have developed.

And here is in graphic.

[img ]http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/two_genesis_2012.png[/img]

DOes that mean there is a 100% chance of storm?

No. It means of all the disturbances that were given a greater than or equal to 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation with 48 hours last year, all of them became tropical cyclones within the period.

[Hurricaneman]

This needs to be monitored for you people that live in the Islands this weekend and next week in Florida maybe if the GFS idea comes to pass

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[RL3AO]

Lot more interesting than it looked a few days ago in terms of the future

[TheStormExpert]

Whatever is left is heading into the SE Gulf. @ 240hr.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Whatever is left is heading into the SE Gulf. @ 240hr.

Off topic and nothing to worry about, but look at that low in the north Atlantic on this run. I wonder if that would be made an invest?

[TheStormExpert]

Off topic and nothing to worry about, but look at that low in the north Atlantic on this run. I wonder if that would be made an invest?

That is a Non-tropical trough of low pressure, or cold front to be more specific. Nothing that far up in the North Atlantic is ever tropical in nature.

[Riptide]

Off topic and nothing to worry about, but look at that low in the north Atlantic on this run. I wonder if that would be made an invest?

That is a Non-tropical low but I'm not fully sure how to explain it. Nothing that far up in the North Atlantic is ever tropical in nature.

Please check your sources, there are multiple storms formed and maintained as far as 40 degrees North; which is the northernmost extension of the subtropics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Hurri ... cane_Chris

[Hurricane Alexis]

Off topic and nothing to worry about, but look at that low in the north Atlantic on this run. I wonder if that would be made an invest?

That is a Non-tropical low but I'm not fully sure how to explain it. Nothing that far up in the North Atlantic is ever tropical in nature.

Please check your sources, there are multiple storms formed and maintained as far as 40 degrees North; which is the northernmost extension of the subtropics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Hurri ... cane_Chris

That low is well north of 40 north. I've never heard of a TC just south of Iceland.

[Riptide]

That low is well north of 40 north. I've never heard of a TC just south of Iceland.

Lol, was looking at the 1018mb low. Of course that is not tropical; nonetheless still looks potent.

[JGrin87]

Looks as if it's trying to get it's act together rather quickly. Convection looks to be increasing too.

[img ]http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif[/img]

Where is a link to this satellite imagery?

[TheStormExpert]

Looks as if it's trying to get it's act together rather quickly. Convection looks to be increasing too.

[img ]http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif[/img]

Where is a link to this satellite imagery?

The bar above the image sends you to the actual link.

[Hurricane Alexis]

That low is well north of 40 north. I've never heard of a TC just south of Iceland.

Lol, was looking at the 1018mb low. Of course that is not tropical; nonetheless still looks potent.

Well the GFS does have something besides possibly future Dorian. It's that low off NC at 54 hrs. I thinks that's the low south of Iceland.

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Cmc , getting stronger near the end of the run .

[Florida1118]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL CYCLONE
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

[meriland23]

Thinking the 5 am will up it.

[ROCK]

Won't be long now...NHC is probably is watching for the convection to maintain just a few hours longer before making the call...haven't seen latest T numbers but should be about 2-2.5 I would think...

[chaser1]

Cmc , getting stronger near the end of the run .

Yeah, just noticed that; track pretty much in line with the GFS but a tad more north and entering the S.E. Bahamas. A way's off yet, but not liking the look of a possible storm taking shape as its comin' around the ridge moving NW possibly into Central Fla. I cant help but feel as if being in the center of a dart board while the champion dartsman is warming up and simply tossing darts with his opposite hand - just for entertainment. Then, just to take a look at tonights GFS 0Z 850mb charts and cannot help but take notice at the "monsoon-like" low starting to set up shop off the W. Coast of Africa at around 136 hrs. Furthermore, a big low to come off the coast at around 216 hr., and a very vigorous low coming off the coast during the first couple days of August.

Here's an odd thought; given there far east longitude there would seem to be little reason for those who live in the Cape Verde Islands to even think about the "wind threat" from a hurricane. Just wondering.... do people have any type of hurricane shutters for their homes there??

[fci]

Yeah, 5 AM first advisory is a good bet.
As a TD or TS??