ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Does anyone know when the floater goes to every half hour?

I think after it pass the 30W longitude. If I am wrong someone tell.

see the blacked out area.. once it passes that.. so yeah 27 to 30w

should go up tomorrow morning or mid day

[northjaxpro]

I feel we will have some good indication in the next 48 hours from the models whether or not if 98L will curve out to sea. The ridge in the Atlantic has been anomolously strong so far this season, so we will see if it will breakdown enough on its western edge to allow an escape route for 98L. If I was a betting man at the moment, I would say that the ridge will probably hold firm.

Again , this is just my thoughts, and of course, not official forecast.

___________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster. Please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Thanks Luis and Aric. At least a new image is coming soon...

[cycloneye]

Remains at 60%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. AN
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT AND ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Extratropical94]

Now moving WNW again and at 20 mph...

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I noticed the 20 mph forward speed motion also, although it is slightly less than Chantal's forward speed. However, if it gets up to 25 mph or more, like Chantal was, then this system will struggle very much to organize.

[Alyono]

Thanks Luis and Aric. At least a new image is coming soon...

One can pay to receive 15 minute imagery

[Senobia]

Looks like an Ike/France's type tracks here being portrayed by some models

According to what? Do you have historical data you can post?

[ozonepete]

Thanks Luis and Aric. At least a new image is coming soon...

One can pay to receive 15 minute imagery

Not on my budget!

[Senobia]

then, according to what I read a week or so ago, the Northern Gulf is at risk if anything should make it this far. NOT A FORECAST.

Where did you read that?

[KatDaddy]

Back to a normal Summertime pattern across TX. Watching the tropics this evening as Invest 98L is approaching TD status. Will 98L reach TD status before SAL (Saharan Air Layer - very dry, warm, dusty air that tropical cyclones hate) wins? Models show a W bend into the NE Caribbean of whatever is left. Its getting to that time of year again. Something to watch for now.

[Hammy]

NRL site contains 15 minute imagery, though somewhat blurry.

[wxman57]

Convection is concentrating near the center now. Could be upgraded at any time.

[Gustywind]

8 PM discussion. Notice that the latest TWD says that the direction is west ... while the latest TWO says moving WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. Find the error . Anyone notice that.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
THE FEATURE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N39W. THIS CYCLONIC
CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND OCEAN
TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE BY THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[Gustywind]

Anyway, 98L is moving; that's sure!

[RL3AO]

Thanks Luis and Aric. At least a new image is coming soon...

Heres a new IR image every 15 minutes.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... r/geo/1km/

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... eo/1km_BD/

Just open the last 10 images or so and go tab to tab in your browser. Create your own loop.

[BigB0882]

I am not sure what thread it was in. There was an image and showed the higher risk to the Northern and Eastern gulf should storms make it to the Gulf. This was all just based on speculation, though. Nothing set in stone and it only takes one storm to sneak through and ruin anyone's year.

[blazess556]

Here is a link to a great IR loop of 98L.

http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif

[ozonepete]

Thanks Luis and Aric. At least a new image is coming soon...

Heres a new IR image every 15 minutes.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... r/geo/1km/

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... eo/1km_BD/

Just open the last 10 images or so and go tab to tab in your browser. Create your own loop.

Thanks!

[ozonepete]

Here is a link to a great IR loop of 98L.

http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif

Excellent. They did all of the work for me. Thanks, blaze.