Subtle but Significant UKMET Shift

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MWatkins
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Subtle but Significant UKMET Shift

#1 Postby MWatkins » Tue Sep 09, 2003 3:17 pm

The 12Z UKMET guidance has started to come around to the thinking of the other models...but still remains a northward outlier.

Consider that the 0Z version of the model had the system moving NW on day 6:

00UTC 09.09.2003 18.2N 44.3W
12UTC 09.09.2003 19.7N 46.5W
00UTC 10.09.2003 20.9N 48.4W
12UTC 10.09.2003 21.4N 50.5W
00UTC 11.09.2003 21.9N 52.8W
12UTC 11.09.2003 22.0N 54.5W
00UTC 12.09.2003 22.1N 56.4W
12UTC 12.09.2003 22.0N 58.3W
00UTC 13.09.2003 22.2N 59.9W
12UTC 13.09.2003 22.9N 61.8W
00UTC 14.09.2003 23.7N 63.5W
12UTC 14.09.2003 24.7N 65.5W
00UTC 15.09.2003 25.7N 66.8W

Then the most recent run:

12UTC 09.09.2003 19.6N 46.0W
00UTC 10.09.2003 21.1N 48.3W
12UTC 10.09.2003 21.9N 50.5W
00UTC 11.09.2003 22.3N 52.4W
12UTC 11.09.2003 22.9N 54.4W
00UTC 12.09.2003 23.2N 55.9W
12UTC 12.09.2003 23.2N 57.8W
00UTC 13.09.2003 23.8N 59.4W
12UTC 13.09.2003 24.2N 61.4W
00UTC 14.09.2003 24.7N 63.0W
12UTC 14.09.2003 25.2N 64.3W
00UTC 15.09.2003 25.4N 64.9W
12UTC 15.09.2003 25.5N 65.6W

So although they end up at almost the exact same point...the shape of the track is significant...instead of suggesting a possible recurvature scenario...the UKMET now agrees with all of the other models and bends the track back to due west by day 3/4...which is still later than the other models...but now indicates what the other models have been suggesting...that Isabel will get trapped under the ridge and not recurve.

Now...if the UKMET runs start shifting appreciably south in the next day or so...then...well...you have your consensus.

More later.

MW
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Josephine96

#2 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 3:25 pm

Not such good news.. even more reasons for Florida-Carolinas' to watch Isabel.

I knew this chick was mean.. I hope she makes up her mind where she goes and doesn't break any hearts along the way
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#3 Postby Scott_inVA » Tue Sep 09, 2003 3:29 pm

Josephine96 wrote:I knew this chick was mean.. I hope she makes up her mind where she goes and doesn't break any hearts along the way


There ought to be a rule...no TCs named after women with their heads cut off.

Scott
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Josephine96

#4 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 3:31 pm

True Scott.. and get rid of French names too lo..
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#5 Postby Tommedic » Tue Sep 09, 2003 3:35 pm

Scott, I see from your model page that all models now keep Isabel North of PR. I don't like that, at least living here near Wilmington.
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MW...Do you think that danger has gone for PR now?

#6 Postby Weathermaster » Tue Sep 09, 2003 3:51 pm

Can we get a relief with the last forcast path provided by NHC?
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