Texas Summer - 2013

[gboudx]

We're in the middle of the huge donut hole in the middle of the red circle for rain totals: This means no help for Lake Lavon as the whole watershed got shafted.

Considering the current radar presentation in Collin County, I think horse is gonna be happy. Nice training of storms right over the Lake Lavon watershed. Hopefully it responds with a decent increase.

[Tireman4]

Thunder all over Houston...

[vbhoutex]

Thunder all over Houston...

Yep but very little rain unless you are N and W of the city.

[Ntxw]

Lots of action going on in eastern TX right now, Dallas and Houston areas included. Drove into blinding rain and lightning on 635/35 intersection heading home from work.

[Tireman4]

Thunder all over Houston...

Yep but very little rain unless you are N and W of the city.

It is raining now. Ahh....it will be hot again. How long will this heat wave last Ntxw?

[Ntxw]

It is raining now. Ahh....it will be hot again. How long will this heat wave last Ntxw?

Next week will be hotter for sure than last. However, soil around Texas is wet. I think persistent mid to upper 90s (seasonal) and maybe a 100 or two in usual hotspots, very humid though. It doesn't look anything like the last heat wave which was on the heels of a long stretch of no rain. End of next week I'm slowly seeing signs of perhaps another retrograding trough from the Ohio valley, we'll have to see how models trend this weekend to be certain.

If this TUTT like area over TX/LA can focus more diurnal showers this weekend it will help keep temps in check next week.

[Ntxw]

Considering the current radar presentation in Collin County, I think horse is gonna be happy. Nice training of storms right over the Lake Lavon watershed. Hopefully it responds with a decent increase.

NWS FW and radar mentioned 3+ near the Lake.


****
THESE TROPICAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN TODAY. A FEW AREAS MAY HAVE ALREADY HAD OVER 3.5
INCHES OF RAIN TODAY BASED ON RADAR STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES...AND A
FEW AREAS MAY SEE THAT MUCH OR MORE TOMORROW.

[somethingfunny]

This is just what we needed. It won't bust the drought, but there should be some nice improvements on next Thursday's drought monitor (this week's drought monitor doesn't show much because the cutoff for new data is Tuesday morning - before a good chunk of this week's rain fell). The donut hole north/east of Dallas is pretty apparent on this map, but we'll take what we can get.

The really great news is that the heaviest rainfall was near the headwaters of the rivers that flow into those desperately low Central Texas reservoirs!

[somethingfunny]

Some more neat radar-estimated precipitation maps:

7-Day Departure from Average Rainfall:



Maybe that's a bit expected since most weeks in July aren't full of widespread rainfall like this. Let's try the Departure from Average for the past 30 days instead:



This toy is a lot of fun. http://water.weather.gov/precip/

[Ntxw]

A couple of popcorn showers sat over the North Texas branch of the PWC today and dropped an additional half inch bringing the 7 day total at 2.6 inches at the locale. Mid 90s will rule much of northern half of Texas and upper 90s for the southern half this week, hottest days being mid week. Again unlike the last heat wave much of the sun's energy should be spent drying out soil moisture, otherwise we would see widespread 100s+. Some kind of weak front should push into the state late in the week and bring at least small rain chances, if the trough is deeper it will bring more relief but that's 7 days away.

Some extra tidbit, the Arctic ice melt this year has been better than last year (obviously it was a record low). Long range guidance has cold air dominating the region as we head into August. While this has little effect on our weather now, in about 2 weeks the sun will be setting north of the Arctic circle (Alaska and northern Canada) and be in at least partial darkness until next year. While I do not have confidence in any analogs at this time, with the way patterns have persisted especially in the south/southeast I believe summer will end sooner this year.

[weatherdude1108]

A renegade pop up heavy shower around 6:15pm dropped about a quarter inch (0.22 to be exact) at the Weatherdude Abode. Didn't expect that! Had no idea. NICE surprise!! . Cooled it off into the 70s too!

[weatherdude1108]

Guess it is to be expected, but still. Ewx took the words right out of my mouth on their last sentence. Hmmm.

But, at least I have not watered my yard -- at all -- in almost two weeks, and it is as lush as ever -- in July.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
THRU MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBSIDENCE TO CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS KEEPING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT BAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROF DOES MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
TO BRING PCPN AND COOLER TEMPS TO OUR NE COUNTIES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. WELCOME TO THE RETURN OF THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

[Ntxw]

More confidence a front (yes we are still talking about fronts going into the height of summer yet again) will make it's way through Texas this weekend in association with the eastern trough. I am not certain if this front will drive through Central/South and Southeast Texas but it will for North, West, and Northeast Texas. Will bring temperatures below normal (upper 80s to around 90 for highs). A shortwave/disturbance will cross the southern plains and at least provide opportunities for scattered showers. Hopefully models will trend more bullish with the front and we can send it through the southern half of Texas for some relief!

[Tireman4]

More confidence a front (yes we are still talking about fronts going into the height of summer yet again) will make it's way through Texas this weekend in association with the eastern trough. I am not certain if this front will drive through Central/South and Southeast Texas but it will for North, West, and Northeast Texas. Will bring temperatures below normal (upper 80s to around 90 for highs). A shortwave/disturbance will cross the southern plains and at least provide opportunities for scattered showers. Hopefully models will trend more bullish with the front and we can send it through the southern half of Texas for some relief!

Well, I hope it comes. Dadgummit. I hate Summer. I hate running in Summer. I hate the sun. LOL. I am glad it rained, but dadgum we are paying this week with heat indices near 105. I hate Summer. I know the Dark Lord of Summer (Wxman 57) is loving this. Whatever. LOL. Vbhoutex was right. He knew I would complain. Ok, rant over. Please front come. Thank you.

[Rgv20]

Today is the 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Dolly Landfall in the RGV! Time flies by, I can't believe it's been five years already!



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[weatherdude1108]

Wow! I can't believe it has been five years!

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow:
Wow! I can't believe it has been five years!

Next up for 5 years since in Texas is Ike on September 13(iirc). Has the valley area recovered completely from Dolly?
Meanwhile, somebody left the oven open in SE TX. Could you please close it?

[Ntxw]

Complex of storms and weak front coming down from Oklahoma is wrecking havoc for North Texas forecasting today. What was supposed to be the beginning of a heat stretch (near 100s) is being offset by clouds and perhaps some showers keeping temperatures low. FW thinks thunderstorms/rain may spot up this afternoon near the I-20 corridor and HPC pretty much agrees but short range guidance isn't as bullish, we'll see. No change in the southern half of Texas, Tireman4 is currently in hiding.

[Tireman4]

Complex of storms and weak front coming down from Oklahoma is wrecking havoc for North Texas forecasting today. What was supposed to be the beginning of a heat stretch (near 100s) is being offset by clouds and perhaps some showers keeping temperatures low. FW thinks thunderstorms/rain may spot up this afternoon near the I-20 corridor and HPC pretty much agrees but short range guidance isn't as bullish, we'll see. No change in the southern half of Texas, Tireman4 is currently in hiding.

Well hurting, not hiding lol. This morning's run was a sweat fest. I am sure this 7 miler I am doing this afternoon will be one too. I just keep saying, first real front (drying things out) will be the last week of September. That is climo...

[gboudx]

Complex of storms and weak front coming down from Oklahoma is wrecking havoc for North Texas forecasting today. What was supposed to be the beginning of a heat stretch (near 100s) is being offset by clouds and perhaps some showers keeping temperatures low. FW thinks thunderstorms/rain may spot up this afternoon near the I-20 corridor and HPC pretty much agrees but short range guidance isn't as bullish, we'll see. No change in the southern half of Texas, Tireman4 is currently in hiding.

I happened to watch Dan Henry's(Fox 4) forecast last evening. His model clearly showed the complex dropping south from Ok and then dissipating over the metroplex, specifically the east side. It appears it was just about spot on. His model also showed showers and storms developing roughly over the same area the storms dissipated and then moved it all southward. We'll see how accurate this afternoon turns out to be. We had a trace of rain, but the clouds and cooler temps are pretty awesome for July 24th.