#3 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 18, 2013 8:45 am
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2N 114.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT, WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
OVER THE CONVERGENT SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 180044Z
SSMIS 37V IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO A BROAD LLCC. A 180129Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A
171634Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOW A DEFINED, BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO
15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGENT, CYCLONIC EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC
AND WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD HAINAN
ISLAND AND NORTHERN VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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