Texas Summer - 2013

[ndale]

Just checked the rain gauge, got .8 inch from our morning showers.

[weatherdude1108]

Anyone see the CPC's latest (July 8th) long-term forecast? 4 out of 5 confidence in the 6-10 day and 3 out of 5 confidence in the 8-14 day. It could very well do a 180 tomorrow like we have seen time and again. But seeing something different from the same ole' same ole' gives me some hope, even if it is wrong!




PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JULY 08 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 18 2013

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL, MOST
MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA AND NEAR THE COAST OF
WASHINGTON STATE, AND RIDGES OVER ALASKA AND MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS EXPECTED
HEIGHT PATTERN FAVORS BOTH THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AND THE ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MAIN STORM
TRACK TO NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MINOR VARIATIONS ON THIS
THEME AMONG THE ASSORTMENT OF MODELS, TWO ITEMS STAND OUT. THE FIRST IS A
RELATIVE WEAKNESS PREDICTED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHICH INDICATES A POTENTIAL PATHWAY FOR ANY FUTURE TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THE SECOND
IS THAT THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS RUN PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
(COMPARED TO SUMMER CLIMATOLOGY) OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS, THE FAR WEST, AND BOTH THE INTERIOR AND PANHANDLE OF ALASKA. THESE AREAS
ARE GENERALLY DUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE-NORMAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGING. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM NEW MEXICO
EASTWARD TO ALABAMA, AND OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THIS IS GENERALLY DUE TO
EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION (SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS), AND BOTH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND RELATIVELY COOL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA).

THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW,
POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM CHANTAL, AND MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE FUTURE
TRACK OF CHANTAL. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE THE PREDICTED REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES, WHILE OTHERS TAKE IT MORE TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO ENHANCED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CONUS (PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN STORM TRACK), AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA (PROXIMITY TO STORM TRACKS). BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MOST OF CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND MUCH OF
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS IS GENERALLY ATTRIBUTED TO AREAS OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING, ABOVE-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS, SIGNIFICANT DISTANCE FROM STORM TRACKS,
OR SOME COMBINATION THEREOF.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE CIRCULATION MODELS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 22 2013

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN DURING THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEEK 2 MEAN
CIRCULATION PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN PREDICTED
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LONG WAVE FEATURES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES, BUT OVER THE CONTERMINOUS U.S. LITTLE IF
ANY EASTWARD MOTION IS DISCERNIBLE IN THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN. AS WAS THE CASE
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE PREDICTED TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR WEEK 2 ARE SIMILAR TO
THOSE MADE FOR DAYS 6-10, WITH MOSTLY MINOR ALTERATIONS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH OFFSET BY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
SURFACE TOOLS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA

[Tireman4]

What the heck? Huh?

[weatherdude1108]

Ewx is "cautiously optimistic." I guess I would be too.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

MID/LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NRN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK AND
MOVE INLAND BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY WITH THE
ORIGIN AND NATURE OF THE LOW...HAVE REMAINED CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
AND HAVE GONE WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE END UP GETTING SIGNIFICANT RAINS
FROM THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL HELP MODERATE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

[weatherdude1108]

We received a whopping 0.06 (six one-hundreths of an inch) at the Weatherdude Center out of this tropical event. Back to the usual bake and sizzle for now. Disappointing.

[Portastorm]

We received a whopping 0.06 (six one-hundreths of an inch) at the Weatherdude Center out of this tropical event. Back to the usual bake and sizzle for now. Disappointing.

That's more than me ... I got a rock (i.e. zero).



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[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion....Another shot of Rain as we head until the weekend and early next week!

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN INCREASINGLY SOLID AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED
LOW BREAKING OFF OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH AND RETROGRADING INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE/DCVA FOR NOW
LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BUT WITH THIS TYPE
FEATURE EXPECT AT LEAST SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONTINUED THE
GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND INCREASED TO CHANCE COASTAL/OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LITTLE SOMETHING AROUND EVERY
DAY BUT TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE FOR NOW. KEPT TEMPS
FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT
COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Tireman you and the rest of Texas can have our upcoming rain as well..........PLEASE!!!

[northtxboy]

You things are gettin sad when you mow ur yard 29 days ago amd it still looks like I just mowed it..... except its brown and dry now.. we need somthing tropical hell I bet my friends down in south texas would welcome a weak hurricane at this point.. takin one for the team south texas!!!! And to keep on with my complaining it it hotter than a two dollar pistol heat index at 105 in the shade!!!!!!!! You can die in the shade now!!!!! I dont know if I am just gettin older and cant handle the heat as well or its gettin hotter in texas.. we need something big!!!! I wonder sometimes if wxman57 does voodoo magic to keep ot jot and dry in texas all year round.. we should banish this man from texas!!!!!!!!! And as punishment send him and his bike to alaska!!!!!!

[Ntxw]

Some news from the Pacific Ocean, latest PDO value fell sharply which doesn't help regarding rain.

[weatherdude1108]

Hmmm.
I found the following article/blog (link), which is apparently from several days ago. I don't know who wrote this, but this says the PDO has gone positive, and likely for several weeks.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... s.html?m=1

[Ntxw]

PDO index comes out once a month and averages out the readings for the month before. May (+0.08) came positive, slightly, but yesterday's reading for June sharply went down to negative (-0.78). Perhaps the author wrote that before the latest data.

So far in July the daily SST's looks even more negative as the central and west PAC has warmed (PDO is more than just the waters off the coast of NA). No Nino to help the cause either. Ontop of that the positive reading was only one time in many many months (years actually). That certainly does not flip us into the wet +PDO, it takes months and months of stable +'s to truly call it a +PDO phase. We are still very much -PDO in the long term. Now had the latest reading continued the + trend that might have signaled something but the fact it went negative to the point where it's significant (to me any reading more than +/-0.50 is big) is not promising.

We are heading into our 4th year straight without an El Nino to date, that is quite a stretch.

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: PDO index comes out once a month and averages out the readings for the month before. May (+0.08) came positive, slightly, but yesterday's reading for June sharply went down to negative (-0.78). Perhaps the author wrote that before the latest data.

So far in July the daily SST's looks even more negative as the central and west PAC has warmed (PDO is more than just the waters off the coast of NA). No Nino to help the cause either. Ontop of that the positive reading was only one time in many many months (years actually). That certainly does not flip us into the wet +PDO, it takes months and months of stable +'s to truly call it a +PDO phase. We are still very much -PDO in the long term. Now had the latest reading continued the + trend that might have signaled something but the fact it went negative to the point where it's significant (to me any reading more than +/-0.50 is big) is not promising.

We are heading into our 4th year straight without an El Nino to date, that is quite a stretch.

The longest stretch prior to 2009 to currently without El Nino was from 1998 to 2002. Interestingly PDO went into a warm phase in 2002 to 2007. At the same time 2002-2003 was El Nino. We have not had a strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino since 1997-1998. They only occur when the PDO is warm. The 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Nino occurred in warm PDO, which was from 1976-1998. A strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino rarely happens in a cool PDO. The 1918-1919 El Nino was a strong one and occurred in cool PDO.

[Ntxw]

The longest stretch prior to 2009 to currently without El Nino was from 1998 to 2002. Interestingly PDO went into a warm phase in 2002 to 2007. At the same time 2002-2003 was El Nino. We have not had a strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino since 1997-1998. They only occur when the PDO is warm. The 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Nino occurred in warm PDO, which was from 1976-1998. A strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino rarely happens in a cool PDO. The 1918-1919 El Nino was a strong one and occurred in cool PDO.

Thank you for the very interesting data. I highlighted the point that stuck out to me the most. 70s, 80s, 90s all had at least one strong Nino (Satellite Era) yet we have not had one post 2000. I am not one to dab in climate change or global warming, but I find it so fascinating that some claim the oceans are significantly warmer and the Pacific should be producing super Ninos more often. That has clearly not happened in recent times and the oceanic cycles have dominated SST's in the Pacific going the opposite. Many of us could use a super Nino just about now...

[Ntxw]

Latest Euro/GFS/CMC all agree that the retrograding trough will bring well below normal temperatures early next week into the Oklahoma/Texas region. They do show very decent amounts of rainfall. While I will hold the 'believe it until I see it' idea for rain, but I do believe the cool temperatures. High's in the mid 80s with ample cloud cover and on/off showers seems like a good bet. Another rare July cool down looks imminent, no record lows though. But twice in a month is that really rare?

Most of the models give between 1-3 inches of rain, one being southern half 3 being northern half of the state. HPC has been trending upwards.

[weatherdude1108]

Latest Euro/GFS/CMC all agree that the retrograding trough will bring well below normal temperatures early next week into the Oklahoma/Texas region. They do show very decent amounts of rainfall. While I will hold the 'believe it until I see it' idea for rain, but I do believe the cool temperatures. High's in the mid 80s with ample cloud cover and on/off showers seems like a good bet. Another rare July cool down looks imminent, no record lows though. But twice in a month is that really rare?

Most of the models give between 1-3 inches of rain, one being southern half 3 being northern half of the state. HPC has been trending upwards.

I saw the CPCs forecast today. They are being consistent with below normal temps and above normal precip. for most of Texas for the next two weeks. The 6-10 day model skill is a 4 out of 5. The 8-14 day is a 3.5 out of 5. It would be great if panned out! Tired of empty promises from the models and emptying lakes/aquifers. The regional lakes are headed towards having new names, Buchanan Playa, Travis River, and Medina Pond.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, what he said!!

[ravyrn]

Had a nice little bit of dihydrogen monoxide fall here in Jacksonville, TX today.

[Portastorm]

EWX has been skeptical of the models depiction for next week (the upper low from the Great Lakes retrograding southwest into the Southern Plains). However, they do seem to be warming up to the idea as evidenced by their AFD this morning.

Here is the relevant portion of that AFD:

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UNUSUAL SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EVOLVING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING MUCH NEED RAINFALL TO PARCHED SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER OHIO WILL RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL TEXAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE NAM...GFS...UKMET
AND CMC HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. A MODEL CONSENSUS FCST RESULTS IN INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...PEAKING MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE EASTERLIES INCREASE...AIDING CONVECTION ON THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...CLOUD COVER
AND PCPN. TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE
EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

[Ntxw]

Usually when the HPC gets colored within 5 days it's a good sign. Euro is pretty consistent with mid to upper 80s for northern half of Texas next week and low 90s for everyone else which is below normal.



I'm going to believe it since this is not northerly flow, but more like a TUTT (mentioned by FW) feature which is direct SE flow from the gulf via the mid-Atlantic anchored high instead of to our west.