Pay a mighty vigilance to Isabel's future track.

[John]

The ridge to the North of Isabel appears to be solid at Low levels, this would allow a weaker system more of a westward heading, however I believe at mid levels there is a weakness in the ridge which explains the WNW motion for the stronger Isabel. WV imagery clearly shows Isabel responding nicely to the Southerly flow (as mentioned BY the TWO) around the ULL North of the Leeward Islands. Since weakening of the ULL is not expected until the next 48-72 Hours this could prove very important in the Larger scale steering Mechanisms. Isabel is already 19.6 N 46.9 W. unless a bend to the SW occurs soon she is likely to miss the Leeward Islands and Possibly skim PR. IMO Isabel is likely to be further N than the Dynamic-Based track Guidance is indicating. At 72 H the ULL should have either lifted NW or weakened being replaced by a developing Tropospheric Ridge over the western Atlantic, it's that time I expect more of a westward heading to begin, IMO and only IMO Isabel is going to be Further N once the westward heading begins, So unless A Westward heading is achieved sometime today, long range thoughts are that Isabel could approach the Bahamas and take a position Dangerously Close to the South Central Florida coast. I understand this is many days thinking into the future, but with a Ridge building over Bermuda by Saturday, Isabel deserves our full attention.

[Josephine96]

I have to agree with you John, Back in 1995.. Erin was about this same latitude and she ended up missing the Islands before coming this way.. I remember that..

Is it our turn again? we shall see.. Nervous days ahead..

[GulfBreezer]

Erin also crossed the Fl Peninsula and hit us dead on here in the panhandle!!

[Josephine96]

Gulf Breezer, I remember... I was right where I am now and Erin packed a bit of a punch when she came here.. She broke one of my windows lol..

This is no Erin though.. this is the real deal here.. a borderline Cat 5 that will probably make the Floyd evacuations look like an elementary school fire drill

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Great Post...John!

[Josephine96]

Thank you.. as a Journalism major you get taught you use good analogies when dealing with potential crisis situations lol

[JetMaxx]

John, I agree with you....Isabel is IMO a serious threat to south and central Florida...

PW

[rob8303]

It is not a serious threat. won't even get to 70w let alone 75-80-85 w. IT'S A FISH, FISH, FISH

[Josephine96]

Read my post lol "Isabel will NOT be a fish"

[GalvestonDuck]

Rob, how to you like your crow -- barbecued or fried?

[rob8303]

fried, Galvestonduck? lol. glad to see you here on this board and not with the wackos on Gopbi. if it was going to turn west, it would have already GD. it's already going against the models. No worries. CONUS is safe.
For all you newbies, don't take my pronouncements like I'm a pro met. I'm not. I'm far from it. just going on instinct here.

[mf_dolphin]

Rob please remember that a lot of our members look to this board for quality information. Declaring a system a fish and not a threat is just not responsible when there's no indication of that being true....

[JetMaxx]

It is not a serious threat. won't even get to 70w let alone 75-80-85 w. IT'S A FISH, FISH, FISH

The ECMWF says different, and so do I...

[Josephine96]

Jet Maxx.. I agree with you... Very serious threat to the East Coast especially anyone from Florida-Carolinas in my opinion

[weathergymnast]

rob8303.. it is true that the upperlow is forceing Isabel on a much further north component that any of the models say.. but also to the north of the upper low is a huge high pressure system to the north. So eventually Isabel will get to a point where it will be located between the upper low and high pressure (lattitude wise) and thus will turn the system west.. and probablyl pretty fast for a while.. until the upper low disapates.. and stearing currents become rather weak.. by this time.. it will be either at florida or dangerously close to the SE coast line.

[dixiebreeze]

I REMEMBER ERIN WELL. BY THE TIME SHE GOT HERE ON THE WEST CENTRAL FLA. COAST SHE WAS A TS, BUT STILL DID CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE BEFORE BLOWING OFF INTO THE GOM.

[JetMaxx]

It won't surprise me if Isabel moves WSW (or at least south of due west...a 260° heading) for awhile between 50-60 W longitude.

PW

[wrkh99]

I have been saying watch for WSW track for several days .

[JCT777]

This is a great thread and I have found the discussions in this forum to be excellent. Regarding Isabel, it does now appear as if the northern leeward islands, as well as Puerto Rico, will not get a direct hit. They may feel some wind and rain affects, if the WSW track materializes, but certainly they would not bear the full brunt of the storm. However, the Bahamas and Florida definitely have to monitor Isabel very closely, as I would expect Isabel to be headed in their direction early next week.

[Lindaloo]

Rob please remember that a lot of our members look to this board for quality information. Declaring a system a fish and not a threat is just not responsible when there's no indication of that being true....

THANK YOU MF!!!