Looking out aways....

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
SolakNC
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 58
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:24 pm
Location: Outer Banks, NC

Looking out aways....

#1 Postby SolakNC » Tue Sep 09, 2003 2:10 am

OK---far fetched, I know :roll: But when ya live on the immediate coast (in my case, OBX, NC), you do have to look ahead.... 288 hr model looks intimidating to this neck of the woods...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288s.gif
0 likes   
Top
ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 2:21 am

Sure, you look ahead to a point, Solak. :) However, computer forecast model guidance is after all guidance... the forecast models will change quite bit in each run; some more than others.

A forecast position by one model 288 hours (12 days) out shouldn't be taken too seriously. Sure, give it some thought and watch additional runs. :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
imagine it
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 7:29 pm
Location: Lumberton NC

#3 Postby imagine it » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:18 am

Hello solak nc i am here in Lumberton NC this model does look very scary. Lets hope its wrong.
there has been alot of diff models showing diff things. its too bad they cannot all be the same it can confuse people.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#4 Postby AussieMark » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:39 am

WHat sites can u get guidance models on tropical systems from?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mf_dolphin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17758
Age: 68
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
Location: St Petersburg, FL
Contact:
Contact mf_dolphin

#5 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Sep 09, 2003 6:14 am

The best is the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov and Storm2k ;-)
0 likes   
Top
ColdFront77

#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 11:47 pm

imagine it wrote:Hello solak nc i am here in Lumberton NC this model does look very scary. Lets hope its wrong.
there has been alot of diff models showing diff things. its too bad they cannot all be the same it can confuse people.

There would be worse problems if forecast model guidance didn't confuse people... if only a certain number of models were issued than the actual track will most like follow any of them. :)
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, BobHarlem, ElectricStorm, Google Adsense [Bot], Sciencerocks and 44 guests