Looking out aways....

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SolakNC
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Looking out aways....

#1 Postby SolakNC » Tue Sep 09, 2003 2:10 am

OK---far fetched, I know :roll: But when ya live on the immediate coast (in my case, OBX, NC), you do have to look ahead.... 288 hr model looks intimidating to this neck of the woods...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288s.gif
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ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 2:21 am

Sure, you look ahead to a point, Solak. :) However, computer forecast model guidance is after all guidance... the forecast models will change quite bit in each run; some more than others.

A forecast position by one model 288 hours (12 days) out shouldn't be taken too seriously. Sure, give it some thought and watch additional runs. :)
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imagine it
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#3 Postby imagine it » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:18 am

Hello solak nc i am here in Lumberton NC this model does look very scary. Lets hope its wrong.
there has been alot of diff models showing diff things. its too bad they cannot all be the same it can confuse people.
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AussieMark
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#4 Postby AussieMark » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:39 am

WHat sites can u get guidance models on tropical systems from?
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#5 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Sep 09, 2003 6:14 am

The best is the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov and Storm2k ;-)
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ColdFront77

#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 11:47 pm

imagine it wrote:Hello solak nc i am here in Lumberton NC this model does look very scary. Lets hope its wrong.
there has been alot of diff models showing diff things. its too bad they cannot all be the same it can confuse people.

There would be worse problems if forecast model guidance didn't confuse people... if only a certain number of models were issued than the actual track will most like follow any of them. :)
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