Cutoff ULL in Bahamas

sunnyday · #21 Postby **sunnyday** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 5:41 pm

So the GFS is more robust about this when crossing S. Fla? How robust is that? 8-)

floridasun78 · #22 Postby **floridasun78** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:55 pm

ull look like drying up

Hurricaneman · #23 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:08 pm

The 0zGFS landfalls with a weak low on the eastern FL panhandle at 114hrs

floridasun78 · #24 Postby **floridasun78** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:44 pm

put look as getting weaker tonight ull

Hurricaneman · #25 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:47 pm

floridasun78 wrote:put look as getting weaker tonight ull

ULLs don't tend to keep convection going on during the night but I could be wrong, need a blue tagger to answer this one

#26 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:07 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:put look as getting weaker tonight ull

ULLs don't tend to keep convection going on during the night but I could be wrong, need a blue tagger to answer this one

Yup you are right Hurricaneman. ULLs don't usually hold their convection at night because the thunderstorms they develop don't tend to be concentrated into a large cluster. Large clusters of thunderstorms associated with tropical lows can cool off on top considerably more at night and thus cause even higher growth of the thunderstorm tops (these big "white" clusters of thunderstorms radiate a lot of heat out into space and thus get even colder at night, causing the temp difference between the surface and the tops of the thunderstorms to get really large). But for ULLs the thunderstorms are not concentrated into a large cluster (there are warm spaces in between the thunderstorms) and thus at night the individual thunderstorms weaken and dissipate.

Here's the current rgb satellite. It's got some decent convective bands but it would need to build a real cluster of convection (a big white blob) before I would say it can maintain itself.

Hurricane Alexis · #27 Postby **Hurricane Alexis** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:24 am

Looks like it's re-developing convection it's northern side.

Steve H. · #28 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:31 pm

ULL is developing some nice convection to the west and north, with even some spirals near the "center." Some interaction is going with the tropical wave now. This might get interesting.

boca · #29 Postby **boca** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:03 pm

It looks like the ULL is damping out, I dont really see any convection anymore around it.

Hurricane Alexis · #30 Postby **Hurricane Alexis** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 7:58 pm

I wonder if that wave catching up to it will enhance convection.

ronjon · #31 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 6:04 am

We should probably change the thread title to cut off low in the bahamas now. Convection really blossomed overnight and has clustered now near the center. I would not be surprised if this continues that an INVEST tag is placed on the system. The ULL merged with a tropical wave about 36 hrs ago.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

ninel conde · #32 Postby **ninel conde** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:16 am

lots of convection.

#33 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:54 am

Yes, I have to say that this is probably the best this feature has looked since we have been tracking it the past 4 - 5 days. If somehow the convection can keep popping and sustain itself, then a possibility that a surface reflection may materialize. Something to still keep an eye on definitely, especially that it is now reaching the Bahamas an will be approaching South Florida by mid-week.

#34 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:03 am

The TW has really enhanced the convection this morning and this needs to be watched.

#35 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:09 am

Dean4Storms wrote:The TW has really enhanced the convection this morning and this needs to be watched.

I agree. The interaction with the ULL and the tropical wave is definitely occuring right now. I would not be surprised if this is designated an invest if the convection sustains through the next 12-24 hours.

#36 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:46 am

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

#37 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:55 am

It now has one heck of a vigorous mid level circulation, I bet that the general public that saw the satellite pix this morning think that it is a tropical system getting organized, I bet local TV stations in FL are getting phone calls left and right from their viewers wondering about this ULL.

Florida1118 · #38 Postby **Florida1118** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:59 am

Thats actually what CNN has depicted in their story for TS Chantal lol

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/08/world/ame ... ?hpt=hp_t2

#39 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 10:01 am

Florida1118 wrote::uarrow: Thats actually what CNN has depicted in their story for TS Chantal lol

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/08/world/ame ... ?hpt=hp_t2

Good grief.

#40 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 10:04 am

Florida1118 wrote::uarrow: Thats actually what CNN has depicted in their story for TS Chantal lol

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/08/world/ame ... ?hpt=hp_t2

OMG!!!!! That is horrible. They better change that picture before FL goes into a panic mode.

Cutoff ULL in Bahamas

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