ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Jevo]

0z NAM +72



0z NAM +84

[Jevo]

0z GFS +96 850mb

[SapphireSea]

Well, pretty good consensus on a pretty hard breakdown of the ridging. I wonder though how weak steering currents will become as of a result at the time it reaches DR.

[meriland23]

this is way north of NHC predictions..

[Jevo]

0z GFS +120 850mb

[ozonepete]

I find it funny that this system could pose a threat to Florida. There was a article in the Sun Sentinel today saying Florida should be protected this year from tropical cyclones because of several different atmospheric conditions. I didn't waste my time reading the article so I do not know what they where.

I thought we had higher chances this year cause of the strong bermuda ridge.

Bermuda ridges aren't the end all be all case for Florida landfalls. For an eastern landfall it usually is up to a trough lifting out in time for a system to be of proper latitude and a combination of a Mid-West Ridge and Bermuda ridge bridging just right for a W to WNW motion into Florida. Generally a stalled trough in the mid-west and a stronger Bermuda ridge can cause a WNW-NW to Cen-N Florida. After that you are talking about late or early season impacts from the SW.

Andrew was a case of missing a weak trough and getting caught in a building ridge off the E Coast. Katrina was also influenced by a strong ridge in the E Coast in her early evolution causing the dip SW. Ike also dipped SW in response to a powerful E Coast Ridge. I believe at those times the Bermuda Ridge was actually weak and infact alot of weaknesses existed in the WATLC/CENATLC.

If I am mistaken about any of the above cases please indicate so so I may correct myself.

You said that very well. And just to add, in any season with a strong Bermuda High or a very weak one, it only takes a few days of weakness or strength in the Bermuda high to change the direction of a TC drastically, so you can never really rely on the overall pattern of the summer to protect you or cause you to feel you are under a threat. Unfortunately all of us living on the coastline have to look at every new TC carefully and follow it until the danger is over.

[bamajammer4eva]

Well, pretty good consensus on a pretty hard breakdown of the ridging. I wonder though how weak steering currents will become as of a result at the time it reaches DR.

Looks like it slows to a crawl through the Bahamas

[Jevo]

0z GFS +120 Simulated IR Satellite showing a sheared storm in the Bahamas

[cycloneye]

00z GFS is more enthusiastic at 00z than in past runs in intensity about Chantel.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like there "could be" a substantial weakness between Florida and Bahamas. Just have a feeling the models are predicting to strong a trough digging down and therefore turning Chantal to north to quick like they do every season to a lot of the storms. And they just keep on trucking west. Nevertheless the Bermuda high will be fighting to build back in and could trap her and turn her west or even possibly WSW on future runs. Should be interesting to watch and see what happens.

[SapphireSea]

No doubt. GFS does indeed show a breakdown of the ridge, Euro also has been doing the same, and NAM now shows heavy erosion of the ridge. The calls for a N turn at 75W by wxman I believe are well supported. Now whether steering currents lax off or deep layer flows sends this off is the questionable part. Models seem to be latching on to a quick exit though, SC/NC may get a brush if the erosion of the ridge is exaggerated even by a little bit.

I would see if this stays consistent for 0z tomorrow. I believe the ULL over florida may be a key to their decision especially if it merges with a trough coming in.

[TexasF6]

I'm not buying any model data until Recon gets in there and takes in proper data to ingest to the models. Until then, Chantal bears watching.

[ROCK]

that weakness is pretty pronounce by the 0Z GFS....I could see this moving up and out if the 0Z GFS is right and miss the ridging building back in....

[meriland23]

I'm not buying any model data until Recon gets in there and takes in proper data to ingest to the models. Until then, Chantal bears watching.

Does recon really have a massively significant to how the GFS models play out?

[Jevo]

0z GFS +144 850mb

[Evil Jeremy]

According to the 00z GFS, Chantal moves through the northern Bahamas, but gets caught under the rebuilding ridge. Basically hours 132-165 is a slow drift from the Bahamas into the North Florida coast, but by the time it reaches land it's a very broad system.

[SFLcane]

Building ridge brings into northern florida.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The GFS builds the ridge back in and sends her west. The Canadian and a few other ensemble models have been hinting at this possibility for a few runs now.

[meriland23]

Recent satellite image



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[Evil Jeremy]

I'm not buying any model data until Recon gets in there and takes in proper data to ingest to the models. Until then, Chantal bears watching.

Does recon really have a massively significant to how the GFS models play out?

Recon, especially the Gulfstream IV flights (which are rare), contribute very useful upper atmospheric information to the models.