ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

Increasing T Numbers!

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/2345 UTC 10.2N 45.4W T2.5/2.5 95L
07/1745 UTC 9.8N 43.6W T2.0/2.0 95L

[Evil Jeremy]

dying to know what their forecast track is...

My guess is that they use a smoother version of the TCVN. Split the difference between the Jamacia bound GFDL/HWRF, the northern bound CMC, the showing nothing ECMWF, and the in the middle GFS.

So, day 5 point just over Havana.

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[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Chantal is there...


559
WHXX01 KWBC 080226
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0226 UTC MON JUL 8 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL (AL032013) 20130708 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130708 0000 130708 1200 130709 0000 130709 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 46.1W 11.5N 50.8W 13.7N 55.5W 15.8N 60.5W
BAMD 9.7N 46.1W 11.0N 50.3W 12.7N 54.2W 14.5N 57.8W
BAMM 9.7N 46.1W 11.0N 50.8W 12.8N 55.2W 14.5N 59.5W
LBAR 9.7N 46.1W 10.7N 50.9W 12.0N 55.7W 13.3N 60.5W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130710 0000 130711 0000 130712 0000 130713 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 65.4W 21.6N 73.3W 24.8N 77.3W 28.1N 77.5W
BAMD 16.2N 60.9W 19.1N 64.8W 19.5N 65.9W 18.0N 66.0W
BAMM 16.4N 63.5W 20.2N 69.9W 23.6N 73.1W 26.0N 73.4W
LBAR 14.8N 64.7W 18.2N 71.2W 22.6N 73.2W 26.4N 70.4W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 46.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 36.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN

[summersquall]

Does that mean there will be an 11pm advisory?

Oh yeah!

Cool.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking north of Cuba in 5 days - if it survives the eastern Caribbean intact.

[LaBreeze]

Look at that contorted spaghetti lookin' mess after 70 w... what in the world?


[]http://i44.tinypic.com/33jqqev.jpg[/img]

Looking at those ensembles I see a system getting trapped under a developing Bermuda High at the end forcing a west or southwest turn, which is in line with how things have looked this year. This is a different pattern than years past. We may unfortunately see a lot of this coming up.

Is this what happened to Betsy in '65?

[southerngale]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 080255
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS AND DOMINICA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SAINT VINCENT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF SAINT LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SAINT LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* SAINT LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT VINCENT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
CHANTAL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 47.2W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 47.2W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 46.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 10.8N 50.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.1N 55.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.9N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.6N 65.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.4N 73.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 25.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 47.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN




------------------------------------------------------------------






000
WTNT33 KNHC 080301
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013

...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 47.2W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS AND DOMINICA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF SAINT LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SAINT LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* SAINT LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT VINCENT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS SAME RAPID
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD
APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...
AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[Evil Jeremy]

Day 5 point is 25.0N 78.0W, which is in the Northern Bahamas.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Look at that contorted spaghetti lookin' mess after 70 w... what in the world?


[]http://i44.tinypic.com/33jqqev.jpg[/img]

Looking at those ensembles I see a system getting trapped under a developing Bermuda High at the end forcing a west or southwest turn, which is in line with how things have looked this year. This is a different pattern than years past. We may unfortunately see a lot of this coming up.

Evening Brian,

Busy start to the season. You thinking this will take the southern verses the northern track.

[LaBreeze]

Day 5 point is 25.0N 78.0W, which is in the Northern Bahamas.

Heading....?

[TheStormExpert]

This just goes to show you that the models do not always catch onto every little disturbance/wave that shows up throughout the Atlantic. Some of them just pop out of nowhere and can look like nothing but turn out to be something big in the future.

[jinftl]

keep in mind margin or error for that many days out


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

Day 5 point is 25.0N 78.0W, which is in the Northern Bahamas.

[Evil Jeremy]

keep in mind margin or error for that many days out


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

Day 5 point is 25.0N 78.0W, which is in the Northern Bahamas.

Oh I know, I do find it interesting though how far north they put the day 5 point seeing how there are still some models tracking south of Cuba.

[floridasun78]

Day 5 point is 25.0N 78.0W, which is in the Northern Bahamas.

put as open wave or weak tropical depression

[CrazyC83]

Land interaction could wreck the intensity forecast as well.

[blp]

00z pass. Not bad.

[jinftl]

Note forecast intensity of only tropical depression by the time it is near andros

keep in mind margin or error for that many days out


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

Day 5 point is 25.0N 78.0W, which is in the Northern Bahamas.

Oh I know, I do find it interesting though how far north they put the day 5 point seeing how there are still some models tracking south of Cuba.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif

[SFLcane]

Not much left after those cuban mountians

[floridasun78]

look like strongest going to be is strong ts not hurr

[floridasun78]

one system last season take same track want by eastern cuba got weaker