ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[blp]

00z Best Track

AL, 95, 2013070800, , BEST, 0, 100N, 460W, 35, 1008, WV

Hmmm. That puts the center quite close to the developing convective concentration overhead. Also, it looks like this has started a jog to the west-northwest, which concurs with the NHC statement. That would bring it closer to the more northerly islands.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What is your take on this possible WNW heading and it's future prospects. I am thinking the further south it stays will give it its best shot to survive. It is moving closer to the dry air and the shear will be bad above 15n when it gets to the Caribbean.

[KBBOCA]

Even after 10 years at S2K I'm always amazed at how quickly someone comes up with an answer to such detailed "trivia" questions... "when was the last time...?" It's one of the things that keeps me hooked on this site. There are just so many walking hurricane encyclopedias who post here. I love it!! Thanks to all who keep sharing all your knowledge and statistics!!

When was the last time the NHC initiated advisories on a system at 11pm? I don't recall anything of the sort happening in the past few years...

Last time a first advisory was issued at 11 PM was for TS Florence last year, so 15 storms ago (but you're right that it doesn't happen very often).

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD:


07/2345 UTC 10.2N 45.1W T2.0/2.0 95L
07/1745 UTC 9.8N 43.6W T2.0/2.0 95L
07/1145 UTC 9.1N 41.1W T2.0/2.0 95L
07/0545 UTC 8.0N 38.5W T1.5/1.5 95L

[meriland23]

when is the next NHC update ?

[Evil Jeremy]

When was the last time the NHC initiated advisories on a system at 11pm? I don't recall anything of the sort happening in the past few years...

Last time a first advisory was issued at 11 PM was for TS Florence last year, so 15 storms ago (but you're right that it doesn't happen very often).

Beryl last year also started with an 11PM advisory. It also happened a couple times during the 2004-2005 seasons. It's still pretty rare though.

[lester]

when is the next NHC update ?

2am ET, or 11pm ET if they decide to upgrade it

[CrazyC83]

Latest microwave. Where is the center?

[jlauderdal]

Getting really interesting with the formation alert. Wait and see I guess.

Time to dust off max mayfield and see what he thinks.

[Gustywind]

704
WHXX01 KWBC 080032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC MON JUL 8 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130708 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130708 0000 130708 1200 130709 0000 130709 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 46.0W 11.8N 50.8W 13.9N 55.6W 16.0N 60.7W
BAMD 10.0N 46.0W 11.4N 50.2W 13.0N 54.1W 14.8N 57.7W
BAMM 10.0N 46.0W 11.4N 50.7W 13.1N 55.2W 14.9N 59.5W
LBAR 10.0N 46.0W 11.1N 50.7W 12.7N 55.4W 14.1N 60.0W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130710 0000 130711 0000 130712 0000 130713 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 65.5W 21.7N 73.4W 24.8N 77.4W 28.1N 77.6W
BAMD 16.6N 60.7W 19.2N 64.4W 19.2N 65.4W 17.6N 65.7W
BAMM 16.7N 63.5W 20.4N 69.9W 23.7N 73.0W 26.2N 73.3W
LBAR 15.6N 64.1W 18.5N 70.7W 22.6N 73.2W 26.4N 70.3W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 46.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 23KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 36.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN

[WeatherEmperor]

Getting really interesting with the formation alert. Wait and see I guess.

Time to dust off max mayfield and see what he thinks.

Is Roland Steadham still around? May sound strange, but I wonder what he thinks about this...

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[cycloneye]

TXNT27 KNES 080024
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)

B. 07/2345Z

C. 10.2N

D. 45.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEMS LLCC NOT EASY TO FIND IN IR. DT=2.0 BASED ON PARTLY
EXPOSED LLCC ON EDGE ON CONVECTIVE SHIELD. MET AND PAT ALSO 2.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

[Gustywind]

From Wunderground:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

Tracking Info For Invest 95L

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type

18 GMT 07/7/13 9.8N 43.8W 35 1008 Invest
00 GMT 07/8/13 10.0N 46.0W 35 1008 Invest

[Dean4Storms]

Going to be a slight uptick in the SST's once this gets into the eastern Carib. Sea, maybe a degree or so.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not convinced with its fast pace in the easterlies that it will deepen enough to not continue on south of the big islands of PR and Hispaniola. I'm beginning to think the only island it crosses is Cuba!

[torrea40]

http://s8.postimg.org/l36py2wtx/20130707_2240_f18_x_colorpct_91h_91v_1deg_95_LINV.jpg

Latest microwave. Where is the center?

10.2N 45.1W

[torrea40]

From Wunderground:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

Tracking Info For Invest 95L

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type

18 GMT 07/7/13 9.8N 43.8W 35 1008 Invest
00 GMT 07/8/13 10.0N 46.0W 35 1008 Invest

Go up....

[floridasun78]

Btw, most of us know that SAL, the Saharan Air Layer (which contains a lot of Saharan dust) can "choke off" convection in a TC. But this system is a really good example of why a TC or developing TC can be right on the edge of a large area of SAL but not be affected by it. Notice that the SAL layer, outlined in brown, is being pushed away by the low to mid-level circulation of the TC itself. This is also aided by the fact that there's no shear from the north which could push the dust into the TC, and the system is moving quickly, which enhances the easterly and northerly winds on the north side of it, helping to keep the dust at bay.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrgb2013-07-072015annofordust_zpsae9690df.jpg

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ty for explaining this about 95l i never notice that other question do you this as open wave by PR?

[cycloneye]

ASCAT missed for the most part. Pass made just before 8 PM EDT.

[meriland23]

Look at that contorted spaghetti lookin' mess after 70 w... what in the world?

[floridasun78]

we miss QuikSCAT very usefully for system in central Atlantic alot system were able to upgrade that area be cause of QuikSCAT