ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

I was just speaking about that, and that's it...

[SFLcane]

Oh Stacy!

[Dean4Storms]

Until euro develops something then ill be interested!!! Best model!

It has a hard time with such small systems.

[Evil Jeremy]

Chantal at 5 pm perhaps?

It wouldn't surprise me seeing how Stewart is on shift and he used the "At any time" line, which is normally saved for 80-90 percent TWOs.

[Rgv20]

Very deserving of the Code Red!

[CrazyC83]

Probably it is 60% because they think it is becoming a TC now, but they aren't sure if persistence of the possible LLC will take place.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is what the renumber file will be if/when 95L is upgraded to a TC:

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 032013.ren

[cycloneye]

Code Red, 60%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 25 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME...WHICH WOULD
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

Chantal at 5 pm perhaps?

It wouldn't surprise me seeing how Stewart is on shift and he used the "At any time" line, which is normally saved for 80-90 percent TWOs.

Avila will come in later and knock it down so we have to take the mean motion of the percentage

[Gustywind]

Tropical Update
Greg Postel, Hurricane and Storm Specialist, The Weather Channel
Jul 7, 2013 12:07 pm ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

-Vigorous tropical disturbance racing westward across tropical Atlantic ... development possible


Tropical Atlantic


A small, but potent tropical disturbance is speeding westward at ~25 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system, designated as "Invest 95-L" by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), demands our attention. All available data in the region indicate it possesses a well-defined counter-clockwise rotation, with a cluster of strong thunderstorms closely attached. When, or if, 95-L acquires a west wind on its south side (green arrow), NHC will go ahead and call it tropical depression. As of this morning, the wind flow around 95-L was not encircling the lowest pressures ... but it's close. Keep in mind, 95-L is believed to have 35 mph winds already. So it would only take another 4 mph to make it a tropical storm. From what I've seen, I would not be surprised if it gets there ... though many of the models are bearish on developing 95-L during its cross-Atlantic trek.


Perhaps one of the reasons why most models do not favor significant development is the close proximity of the dreaded Saharan Air Layer (a layer of dry and dusty air from the African deserts between about 5,000 and 20,000 feet in altitude that kills thunderstorms). If the SAL (shaded in red below) finds a trap door into 95-L, it could permanently injure the circulation. We'll see. NHC gives 95-L a 40% chance of developing in the next 2 days.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone else not getting the FSU site to update.. mine still stuck on yesterday 12z

[gatorcane]

Seems to be doing quite well fending off the SAL. Latest Vis imagery suggests the SAL is more north and east of where 95L is currently from this time yesterday and is indeed heading toward an environment which is even more favorable (higher SSTs and low shear) and what the NHC has been suggesting...

[TheStormExpert]

Chantal at 5 pm perhaps?

It wouldn't surprise me seeing how Stewart is on shift and he used the "At any time" line, which is normally saved for 80-90 percent TWOs.

Yeah and he also is mentioning the potential for TS Watches and Warnings for portions of the Lesser Antillies. So this means the likelihood of a TS is increasing.

[N2FSU]

12Z CMC; 150hr

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N41W TO
15N40W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. WHILE MOST OF THE WAVE AXIS ITSELF
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SAHARAN DUST AND DOES NOT EXHIBIT ANY
CONVECTION...THE LOW CENTER LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXHIBITS A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREAL COVERAGE CYCLONIC SPIN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAT WAS CAPTURED ON AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS
AROUND 07/1250 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 42W-46W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[N2FSU]

12Z CMC; 156hr

[gatorcane]

Looping the latest 12Z GFS run shows Bermuda High building westward over the mid-atlantic states by early next week...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFSTROPA ... sloop.html

and another Cape Verde system on the way in the MDR...

[TheStormExpert]

Seems to be doing quite well fending off the SAL. Latest Vis imagery suggests the SAL is more north and east of where 95L is currently from this time yesterday and is indeed heading toward an environment which is even more favorable (higher SSTs and low shear) and what the NHC has been suggesting...

The NHC has been suggesting that conditions would continue to become more favorable for the past day. But as of the 2pm TWO they now are saying conditions are conducive for development, as opposed to before when they were saying conditions are conducive for some development.

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF rolling, here's 24 hrs out: