ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[BobHarlem]

The GFS is keeping it in the Caribbean, and rides it along the northern islands, never really amounting to much, but the globals still don't seem to have a good grasp on the system yet.

[cycloneye]

Aric, post those great visible animations that you have.

[floridasun78]

Does anyone think this will become Chantal before the islands?

no one know only nhc but it do look like low east of storms so speed could be issue

[Aric Dunn]

its pretty straight forward... it might be small system... but its a tc...

[SFLcane]

Needs to put the breaks on a bit

[floridasun78]

that high to north not letting up so strong causing rip current in florida so high will need weaking to gave 95l chance slow down

[Hurricaneman]

Needs to put the breaks on a bit

Probably won't do that until its near the larger islands if the models and forecast are right, but storms can make it like Charley did in 2004, had similar trade wind conditions but a more moist environment this one doesn't have

[JonathanBelles]

This doesn't seem like a TD to me, although it looked better last night

[Aric Dunn]

you can clearly see the circ briefly before it got covered back up. typical NHC they will wait till its threatens.

[NDG]

I can clearly see the LLC tracking westward south of 10N, north of the dying MLC to its south.

[Alyono]

you can clearly see the circ briefly before it got covered back up. typical NHC they will wait till its threatens.

what? There is clearly no earth relative circ. Storm relative does not count

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Storm: 95L
Forecast: 3

Chance of Development
48 Hours: 40%
72 Hours: 50%
120 Hours: 60%

[Aric Dunn]

you can clearly see the circ briefly before it got covered back up. typical NHC they will wait till its threatens.

what? There is clearly no earth relative circ. Storm relative does not count

Oh come on. You know the difference as well as me and although there is "no real way to comfirm" without obs this is a classic TD/Ts TC being affected by dry air and sal.

[blp]

Dr Masters going with 70%.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

In their 8 am EDT July 7 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday. I put these odds higher, at 70%. Climatology argues against 95L becoming a tropical depression east of the Lesser Antilles Islands; there have been only 20 July tropical depressions that have formed east of the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one tropical cyclone every eight years.

[Incident_MET]

you can clearly see the circ briefly before it got covered back up. typical NHC they will wait till its threatens.

what? There is clearly no earth relative circ. Storm relative does not count

Alyono: What does "geostationary imagery" mean in your definition ??

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS....... Does not do much with 95L but man the pattern toward Florida! Whoa!


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[Dean4Storms]

12Z GEM.....Still bullish toward SC Coast and develops another TC in the eastern Gulf.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[CrazyC83]

I think the models are definitely on to something...80-83W seems to be the turn point. That low will turn it north in a heartbeat.

[Dean4Storms]

actually after looking again, GEM is developing that ULL that combines with the Tropical Wave closing in on it once in the eastern Gulf. Just what we need here in the Panhandle, more rain!

[torrea40]

Dr Masters going with 70%.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

In their 8 am EDT July 7 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday. I put these odds higher, at 70%. Climatology argues against 95L becoming a tropical depression east of the Lesser Antilles Islands; there have been only 20 July tropical depressions that have formed east of the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one tropical cyclone every eight years.

70% today.???????????