ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Some new convection rebuilding near the circulation.

[blp]

Well there is a little more interest now.

[gatorcane]

The 144 hour GFS mid-level steering is shown below. It shows more ridging than the ECMWF over the Western Atlantic (even if you look at the ECMWF at 144 hours).

That circle just north of the Eastern part of Cuba is 95L:

[gatorcane]

95L doesn't seem like it is gaining much latitude looking at the VIS loops today.

[northjaxpro]

That convective burst near the circulation center looks pretty impressive. I would think if the convection can sustain itself, this is easily a TD imo, bordering on a minimum TS.

_________________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

First mission on Monday afternoon.

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 07 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-037

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 08/2100Z                A. 09/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST      B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
       C. 08/1815Z                C. 09/1030Z
       D. 12.5N 54.7W             D. 14.0N 60.8W
       E. 08/2030Z TO 09/0030Z    E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1800Z
       F. RESOURCES PERMITTING

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.


[caneman]

Will need to develop before the East. Carib. as most times systems will not and don't later develop until the West Carib.

[cheezyWXguy]

It's hard to ignore what's going on out there. Based on visible that circulation looks pretty close to being closed if it isnt already and it does seem to be holding at least periodic convection over the center. Not the most healthy looking system because of the dry air and fast motion, but the improvements from even yesterday are apparent.

[Dean4Storms]

That convective burst near the circulation center looks pretty impressive. I would think if the convection can sustain itself, this is easily a TD imo, bordering on a minimum TS.

_________________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I agree, clear LLC on visible and convection re-firing. We have at least a TD now in my opinion.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

both maps show cyclone formation the 72 map and 72 hour surface map and marine map

[Dave]

Recon TCPOD for Invest 95L

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 071607
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 07 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-037

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 08/2100Z                A. 09/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST      B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
       C. 08/1815Z                C. 09/1030Z
       D. 12.5N 54.7W             D. 14.0N 60.8W
       E. 08/2030Z TO 09/0030Z    E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1800Z
       F. RESOURCES PERMITTING

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$

[NDG]

I agree, if convection persists through the afternoon near the apparent LLC this needs to bo upgraded to a TD since this is only a couple of days away from affecting the Islands so that people can start preparing for possible TS conditions.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

First mission on Monday afternoon.

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 07 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-037

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 08/2100Z                A. 09/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST      B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
       C. 08/1815Z                C. 09/1030Z
       D. 12.5N 54.7W             D. 14.0N 60.8W
       E. 08/2030Z TO 09/0030Z    E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1800Z
       F. RESOURCES PERMITTING

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.


look like air force agree to send plane on monday add second flight

[Evil Jeremy]

Anything less than a code red for the 2pm TWO is not doing this system justice. This looks like a TD already.

[floridasun78]

i bet today plane been send down to Saint Croix speical hurricane hunter base

[wxman57]

We've seen systems before that looked like clear tropical storms only for recon to be unable to close off a center at the surface. I think that we'll have to watch this system after it moves west of 70W in 4-5 days. Good video by Levi yesterday:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[floridasun78]

or going wait for early flight on monday to see if td now add monday flight

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone think this will become Chantal before the islands?

[floridasun78]

We've seen systems before that looked like clear tropical storms only for recon to be unable to close off a center at the surface. I think that we'll have to watch this system after it moves west of 70W in 4-5 days. Good video by Levi yesterday:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

you could right or wrong let see nhc say if get to leedwards not been TD it wont be until south of haiti

[NDG]

Convection refiring nicely over apparent LLC.