ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Windsat made a good pass nailing the circulation. Looks very good.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

[Alyono]

interesting that they say no evidence of a closed circulation

[Aric Dunn]

interesting that they say no evidence of a closed circulation

nearly everything the NHC says is interesting.. though a lot of the times.. the baffling part is attached lol

[cycloneye]

Maybe bouys that are ahead provide some information.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 062352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 08N35W TO
11N41W TO 16N42W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. WHILE MOST OF THE WAVE
AXIS ITSELF REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SAHARAN DUST AND DOES NOT
EXHIBIT ANY CONVECTION...THE LOW CENTER LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS
AND EXHIBITS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREAL COVERAGE CYCLONIC SPIN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY...120 NM...TO THE LOW CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[floridasun78]

this may not get to be td because shear and dry air i hear it ahead of 95l

[cycloneye]

Here is Bouy 31002 that may be good as is south of the circulation.

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

06/2345 UTC 7.8N 36.2W T1.0/1.0 95L
06/1745 UTC 8.4N 34.7W T1.0/1.0 95L

[Hurricane Alexis]

18z GFS develops it somewhat in the eastern caribbean a few days from now.

[Gustywind]

18z GFS develops it somewhat in the eastern caribbean a few days from now.

Any link to confirm your info?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 95, 2013070700, , BEST, 0, 82N, 364W, 25, 1009, WV

[Cyclenall]

This is the most exciting/interesting invest of the Atlantic season so far for me. You can add me to that group that thinks this is already a TC. I'm drawing a big for what the NHC said about no evidence of a closed circulation. Could be a sleeper. Sometimes I think the models might miss a storm and not show it forming into a good storm because of its size, would be cool to see a shadow storm.

this may not get to be td because shear and dry air i hear it ahead of 95l

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

[Gustywind]

0z Models guidance

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC SUN JUL 7 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130707 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130707 0000 130707 1200 130708 0000 130708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.2N 36.4W 9.0N 40.4W 10.3N 45.2W 11.9N 50.5W
BAMD 8.2N 36.4W 8.9N 39.9W 10.0N 43.6W 11.5N 47.3W
BAMM 8.2N 36.4W 8.8N 40.6W 9.8N 45.1W 11.2N 49.7W
LBAR 8.2N 36.4W 8.7N 40.3W 9.9N 44.7W 11.1N 49.2W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130709 0000 130710 0000 130711 0000 130712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 55.7W 17.8N 66.0W 21.5N 74.6W 25.2N 79.4W
BAMD 13.1N 51.0W 16.0N 57.1W 17.0N 61.0W 15.8N 63.8W
BAMM 12.8N 54.3W 16.3N 62.9W 20.0N 70.1W 23.5N 74.3W
LBAR 12.8N 53.6W 16.2N 60.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 36.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 7.8N LONM12 = 32.7W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 7.7N LONM24 = 29.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Gustywind]

0z Models guidance

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC SUN JUL 7 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130707 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130707 0000 130707 1200 130708 0000 130708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.2N 36.4W 9.0N 40.4W 10.3N 45.2W 11.9N 50.5W
BAMD 8.2N 36.4W 8.9N 39.9W 10.0N 43.6W 11.5N 47.3W
BAMM 8.2N 36.4W 8.8N 40.6W 9.8N 45.1W 11.2N 49.7W
LBAR 8.2N 36.4W 8.7N 40.3W 9.9N 44.7W 11.1N 49.2W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130709 0000 130710 0000 130711 0000 130712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 55.7W 17.8N 66.0W 21.5N 74.6W 25.2N 79.4W
BAMD 13.1N 51.0W 16.0N 57.1W 17.0N 61.0W 15.8N 63.8W
BAMM 12.8N 54.3W 16.3N 62.9W 20.0N 70.1W 23.5N 74.3W
LBAR 12.8N 53.6W 16.2N 60.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 36.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 7.8N LONM12 = 32.7W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 7.7N LONM24 = 29.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Hurricane Alexis]

18z GFS develops it somewhat in the eastern caribbean a few days from now.

Any link to confirm your info?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Gustywind]

18z GFS develops it somewhat in the eastern caribbean a few days from now.

Any link to confirm your info?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Thanks for posting that. That's very important for those who live in the Eastern Carib as 95L seems to increase and progresses towards the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Fresh ASCAT made just before 8 PM EDT. No closed circulation seen.

[Cyclenall]

0z Models guidance

3rd time the charm? Still no intensity forecast on it.

EDIT: I got an strange error that said, "The requested post does not exist" ... never seen that one before. The 3rd repeat is now also removed.

[blp]

Updated: