ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

#121 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:28 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Alyono: Couldn't the shear there just lessen? Perhaps an anticyclone will develop?

not likely in this case

torrea40 · #122 Postby **torrea40** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:29 pm

#123 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:30 pm

the farthest east that a place can reach is about 40W and only when NOAA deploys the P3s to Barbados for a research mission

ROCK · #124 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:39 pm

well the mighty NAVGEM at 12Z doesnt even have 95L..... :lol:

that upgrade didnt go so well....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

#125 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:40 pm

^Fail. LOL

Aric Dunn · #126 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:51 pm

another large convective burst. I dont think anything is going to stop it from developing before hitting shear in 4 to 5 days. latest images before night show a rapidly organizing system.. nhc will likely go 40 or maybe 50.. though should be 60 to 80

#127 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:56 pm

Systems classified near 95L in July.

#128 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:00 pm

Take a look at the latest surge of dust just north of 95L that 95L is starting to ingest (the hazy appearance in the sat image). Shouldn't be long before it gets suffocated by that. I think the 30% chance NHC gives it is a good call. More than likely this will not get named because there is so much dust out there, it doesn't have much of a chance. A month from now could be a different story though...

hurricaneCW · #129 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:10 pm

I thought that the dry air would be less of a factor if the shear was low. I heard from forecasters before that dry air is unable to ingest into the circulation with low shear. Of course widespread and a potent SAL layer might be different, so I'm not sure.

#130 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:19 pm

Environment not ideal and odds are against 95L, but air moistening a bit as 95L moves west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

beoumont · #131 Postby **beoumont** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:19 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:I thought that the dry air would be less of a factor if the shear was low. I heard from forecasters before that dry air is unable to ingest into the circulation with low shear. Of course widespread and a potent SAL layer might be different, so I'm not sure.

July 6, 18z

#132 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:26 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:I thought that the dry air would be less of a factor if the shear was low. I heard from forecasters before that dry air is unable to ingest into the circulation with low shear. Of course widespread and a potent SAL layer might be different, so I'm not sure.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not sure about that but small systems like 95L are much more susceptible to the SAL than larger ones. Also should point out that there is dry, stable air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere it is heading towards as seen on the latest WV imagery. The best it will probably look is what we are seeing today.

#133 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:52 pm

Latest microwave pass:

#134 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:58 pm

Got pros and cons. We'll have to wait and see. My bet is NHC stays at 30 at 8pm.

#135 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:00 pm

Small and low latitude = best chance to avoid Sally.

#136 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:02 pm

Nice blowup of deep convection

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

Aric Dunn · #137 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:02 pm

SAL does always mean no development. It is situated in a nice pocket of moist air in the mid and upper levels. the SAL is lagging behind the system and to the north. so far considering all that have mentioned sal being around it have not noticed despite it the convection has not only maintained but increased this afternoon.

#138 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:06 pm

It's still very low latitude not far removed from the ITCZ. It just might stay out ahead of the worst of the SAL. I'd be willing to bet we already have a closed LLC under it.

'CaneFreak · #139 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:42 pm

I found this pretty interesting.

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST
GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE
INVEST AL952013 07/06/13 18 UTC

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

jaguarjace · #140 Postby **jaguarjace** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:11 pm

Floater is up:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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