ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[SFLcane]

18z updated..

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles.

[Gustywind]

GFS ensembles.

http://oi44.tinypic.com/w7ea02.jpg

Leewards trip in store ?! Let's wait and see again to have a better idea but seems that the Eastern Carib is really in that path if something happens ( should it verifies first!).

[Gustywind]

1845z Models guidance.


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC SAT JUL 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130706 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130706 1800 130707 0600 130707 1800 130708 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.0N 34.8W 8.5N 38.5W 9.6N 42.9W 11.1N 47.8W
BAMD 8.0N 34.8W 8.5N 38.0W 9.4N 41.4W 10.7N 45.0W
BAMM 8.0N 34.8W 8.5N 38.4W 9.6N 42.4W 10.9N 46.7W
LBAR 8.0N 34.8W 8.4N 38.7W 9.2N 43.1W 10.4N 47.8W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130708 1800 130709 1800 130710 1800 130711 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 53.0W 17.3N 63.2W 21.2N 71.9W 24.7N 77.2W
BAMD 12.2N 48.6W 15.1N 55.0W 16.6N 59.3W 15.8N 62.2W
BAMM 12.6N 51.1W 16.2N 59.3W 19.7N 65.7W 21.7N 69.0W
LBAR 11.9N 52.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 34.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 7.7N LONM12 = 31.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 7.6N LONM24 = 27.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

ATCF updated the 18z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013070618, , BEST, 0, 80N, 348W, 25, 1009, WV

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[wxman57]

Certainly looks more impressive than 94L. All models indicate significant shear in its path as it approaches the eastern Caribbean Monday night (beyond 48 hrs). After that, conditions may improve beyond 120 hrs as it reaches 70-75W.

[jaguarjace]

No floater but here's an alternative loop

[hurricaneCW]

This is another one of those disturbances that would have likely been a TD by now if it was say in the Caribbean or GOM. The curvature and obvious banding signatures are very impressive for a wave so far east and prior to the Cape Verde season.

If they name much worse looking disturbances TDs or storms that threaten land, why not be fair and do the same for those much further away who may often look far more impressive.

[CrazyC83]

This is another one of those disturbances that would have likely been a TD by now if it was say in the Caribbean or GOM. The curvature and obvious banding signatures are very impressive for a wave so far east and prior to the Cape Verde season.

If they name much worse looking disturbances TDs or storms that threaten land, why not be fair and do the same for those much further away who may often look far more impressive.

There is no need for the NHC to be too aggressive that far out, since there are no warnings or watches necessary, and not until Monday or Tuesday at least probably. Of course I wish Recon could reach 35W but there is no plane with enough gas to get that far out except perhaps the Global Hawk, and why waste a mission this early for a developing system?

I'd personally say this is a tropical storm based on microwave + OSCAT earlier...

[ozonepete]

18Z Guidance from Colorado State for track and intensity. Consensus has a hurricane approaching the islands at 72 hours:

[CrazyC83]

The Bermuda High and troughs would make it a northward magnet once past about 80W, correct?

[ozonepete]

That's how it looks now but of course 5 or more days out is just impossible to forecast. The Bermuda high could extend well westward by then or contract eastward. The current forecast is for troughing in the eastern U.S. by next weekend which would pull it north. But still, just way too far out.

[ozonepete]

Very early start to the Cape Verde season. You can see 95L out there in the middle of the Atlantic and impressive easterly wave action continues over Africa. Look at that huge one blowing up over Africa now.

[caneman]

Not looking good for our Bahamas cruise next week

[Alyono]

If this does not develop within 48 hours, it isn't going to, at least not until it reaches the WC. Appears as if there will be too much shear in the EC to allow development

[Hurricane Andrew]

Amazing structure. New Forecast by me.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Chance of Development
Storm: 95L
Forecast: 2

48 Hours: 40%
72 Hours: 50%
120 Hours: 50%

[ouragans]

Even from an Antilles base?

Even from Barbados.

and they won't use a drone for just an Invest. If it was a TS ou minimal hurricane, they would have sent one by Sunday or Monday. Hurricane Hunters don't have that range to reach where 95L should be before Tuesday

[ouragans]

Look at that huge one blowing up over Africa now.

this area over Souther Chad definitely needs to be monitored... 95L should clean up the air before that one comes out.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Alyono: Couldn't the shear there just lessen? Perhaps an anticyclone will develop?

[ROCK]

If this does not develop within 48 hours, it isn't going to, at least not until it reaches the WC. Appears as if there will be too much shear in the EC to allow development

good point....the last GFS run I saw open this up as it entered the Carib.....took the wave under all the islands...