EPAC: COSME - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

Does anyone have access to the most recent microwave passes over Cosme?

[Cyclenall]

Is anyone else having issues getting into the NRL page? I can't get it to load!

I've been having that issue for months now (since the start of this year). Its becoming quite unreliable and even the backup doesn't load.

Cosme is a cool looking system. Nice skirt and curl.

[SouthDadeFish]

Can't load the NRL page as well.

Does anyone have access to the most recent microwave passes over Cosme?

I have had no issues accessing the back up NRL site:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Yellow Evan]

Can't load the NRL page as well.

Does anyone have access to the most recent microwave passes over Cosme?

I have had no issues accessing the back up NRL site:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

I can not access the NRL back up website.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 55kts


EP, 03, 2013062500, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1073W, 55, 994, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Big system. It's like Cosme is in the wrong basin (the WPAC). Anyhow, I think with some luck, we can see a cane at 9z or 15z. Will it RI thereafter? who knows? it's his choice. It can be one of those storms that go scre all, I'm RI'ing and pop into a major within 12 hours, but it may not.

[cycloneye]

Recent Microwave.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Shouldn't be long before we have a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Anyone here thinking the NHC might go with 60 knots at 03z? I think they might. If Stewart is on, I think there is a very good chance.

[cycloneye]

...COSME LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 107.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER-CORE BANDING STRUCTURE OF
COSME HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
A BANDING FEATURE NOW WRAPS ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55 KT.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES OVER MUCH COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
DSHP AND LGEM MODELS...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE WEAKER LGEM FORECAST
AFTER 48 HOURS.

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. COSME
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/12...ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS...COSME SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND
REMAIN ON THAT HEADING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE
LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF COSME ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.9N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 16.7N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 17.4N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 18.7N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 20.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH

[Macrocane]

Very impressive and large circulation

[brunota2003]

This is an update to my personal forecast from this morning.

Based on some of the images I've been seeing here the last couple of hours, I was tempted to revise my forecast upwards, but I figured I would hold and keep it at 75 to 85 knots by 12Z, with a peak in the 85 to 95 knot range.

It appears that the very large size of Cosme is drawing out the wrap up into RI, but I still expect it to undergo greater intensification as the night wears on. BTW, Cosme was at 55 knots for the 11 pm advisory. If it were to undergo RI from that (meaning 24 hours, or from 11 pm tonight to 11 pm tomorrow night), it would put the system in the 85 to 95 knot range. Low end MH seems like a small possibility.

[Yellow Evan]

My update:

Cosme is steadily intensifying and has a 24 hr window to become a cane before weakening. I think this storm will weaken slower than normal due to its large size. I also think this storm will intesify a bit during the next 12-24 hours. A turn to the west is likely, preventing impact on Socorro Island.
12hr 65 knt
24 hr 80 knt
36 hr 70 knt
48 hr 55 knt
72 hr 40 knt
96 hr 35 knt

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

FORECASTER ZELINSKY? Have I seen this forecaster before?

Cosme is shedding its outer-bands...now going in for the wrap-around.

[Yellow Evan]

FORECASTER ZELINSKY? Have I seen this forecaster before?

Cosme is shedding its outer-bands...now going in for the wrap-around.

It is looking good tonight indeed. Hope MX is okay. Tropical Storm Cosme has a ragged banding eye, though the eyewall is not yet closed off IMO.

[Kingarabian]

CIMSS's Raw T numbers are up to 5.0.

I would say it's starting to RI... but
I really don't know how the latest microwave pass is going to reveal it's inner eyewall.

[mrbagyo]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

it's wrapping up nicely

[Yellow Evan]

What are it's real chances of RI?

[brunota2003]

Probably slim to none. Especially without observations or recon, unless an eye pops out, I doubt the sat estimates will budget much.

[Kingarabian]

Probably slim to none. Especially without observations or recon, unless an eye pops out, I doubt the sat estimates will budget much.

Well they shot up to 5.0 when there was an eye like feature...