Texas Summer - 2013

[ndale]

It looks like scattered showers are trying to pop up in NW and NC Texas. Short guidance thinks they will cluster and another MCS may make a run tonight, tomorrow morning again at DFW. Think they won't make it much further south than Waco so no help for Austin I don't think but they will come close! ...

Well the good news for us is that you were wrong Ntxw! A MCS rolled through the Austin metro area early this morning. While the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County only recorded about .20 inches of rain, areas to the north did much better. I suspect that weatherdude probably got some good rain.

Interesting ... the short-term, high res models blew Monday's forecast for south central Texas but accurately progged this morning's MCS.

Anyhoo ... it's mid June and it is still raining on parts of Texas. Oh, what a beautiful summer already!

Got exactly an inch here in Plugerville this morning.

[Peanut432]

Flash flood warnings for about 5 or 6 counties in the panhandle as well. Haven't seen that in a while

[Portastorm]

Got exactly an inch here in Plugerville this morning.

That's great, ndale! Good for you. I didn't realize that y'all got quite that much. My brother lives up there and is always griping that P-ville gets skunked in the rainfall dept. all the time. I'll give him some grief now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

@RyanMaue just posted an image of a 600 DM ridge over the western US

[Ntxw]

@RyanMaue just posted an image of a 600 DM ridge over the western US

Thank goodness this ridge has settled itself so far over the west being weaker as it moves east and I think it will tend to stay there most of the summer. NW flow aloft from it is good MCS program for parts of Texas. Southerly flow has still been dominant vs southwesterly!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

@RyanMaue just posted an image of a 600 DM ridge over the western US

Thank goodness this ridge has settled itself so far over the west being weaker as it moves east and I think it will tend to stay there most of the summer. NW flow aloft from it is good MCS program for parts of Texas. Southerly flow has still been dominant vs southwesterly!

Is there any reason why that is good for MCS's? Is it because of the southernly flow near the surface? I think we will be on the edge of the ridge which is good rain events.

[Ntxw]

Is there any reason why that is good for MCS's? Is it because of the southernly flow near the surface? I think we will be on the edge of the ridge which is good rain events.

NW flow aloft in the summer often brings disturbances from troughs in the PAC NW, couple that with moisture from the low level southerly flow and you get MCS that start in the Panhandle or west Texas and swing southeast and their outflows allow for popcorn showers. That's what we have been seeing the past couple of weeks. Being on the right periphery of the ridge (anchored in the west) is best situation for this, unlike 2011 when it was parked smack dab over us.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ok great, thanks for the knowledge! Yeah, the ridge over us was no fun. I have been watching it everyday and it has been skipping around us for the most part.

Speaking of, is there any indication on what the winter will look like due to temps in the pacific? Or maybe any analogs to see where the ridge may park itself this summer? Looks like the west may be the victim this summer for the ridge hovering overhead

[Ntxw]

No clue on winter .

For the ridge, follow where drought is growing and that's over the west. Plains and southern plains drought is improving. We are not coming out of La Nina so that will only get better. May had a +PDO reading which is no coincidence I believe since +PDO is cool east hot west and -PDO vice versa. Next reading will tell us if that will continue. 2008 may be a good summer analog based on SST's (that's the year Ike struck).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ok awesome. Thanks. Is it as simple as that? Follow the drought? The soil moisture is main indicator of where the 500 MB ridge sets up? Never knew that

[South Texas Storms]

Unfortunately the next 7 days looks hot and dry for much of Texas. Hopefully the tropics will bring us some more widespread rain chances around the 4th of July.

[Ntxw]

Ok awesome. Thanks. Is it as simple as that? Follow the drought? The soil moisture is main indicator of where the 500 MB ridge sets up? Never knew that

In a sense yeah. There's two main areas of ridging at 500mb that's the source for HP, the Sonoran/Chihuahua Desert and the Bermuda high. They move around and assert themselves, In areas of drought they strengthen and feedback happens and wanes in wet areas. It's like what snow cover does in winter. Path of least resistance is what weather likes to do!

[Ntxw]

Ah yes, the famed summer solstice. Some of the hottest weather ever in these parts are during this period (DFW's 113 back in 1980). Fortunately nothing like that is in the offing the next 7 days. Like South Texas Storms mentioned aside from thunderstorms/MCS effecting West Texas in the afternoons and maybe a sea breeze in SE Texas, looks seasonably hot and dry.

This is what June had to offer thus far, looks pretty normal when you average it out for the state



EPAC is about to get going with most guidance showing one or more systems. If they do pan out we will see mid level moisture stream up from the SW. At the same time they also show increasing tropical moisture heading into the gulf from the Caribbean. If they two can verify later in the month and early next month is promising. The MJO has stayed away from the Maritime phases so I do not believe any heat waves will be sustaining, in fact they are moving to the 7,8,1 phases which is a wetter pattern for Texas in the summer period. +PNA is coming, doesn't work the same as winter but it does provide lower pressures over our state.

[vbhoutex]

No clue on winter .

For the ridge, follow where drought is growing and that's over the west. Plains and southern plains drought is improving. We are not coming out of La Nina so that will only get better. May had a +PDO reading which is no coincidence I believe since +PDO is cool east hot west and -PDO vice versa. Next reading will tell us if that will continue. 2008 may be a good summer analog based on SST's (that's the year Ike struck).

SSHHH!!!!! They'll hear you!!
Your path of least resistance remark makes more sense than anything I have read in a long time. I'm lie DOH!!! Why haven't I figured that out yet?? I guess I have known it but never thought of it in the simple terms that are so true.

[Tireman4]

I am already growing tired of Summer and we are just starting. Uggh. DC. was so nice. Goodness. Where is Winter again?

[Nikki]

I would like to report that here is Santa Fe, TX it is nice and and hot.....I mean what else could we wish for these 90+ degree days with humidity and no rain in sight is just joyful

Maybe we will get lucky and the cold fronts will move in early this year!! <-------- HAHA!!!

I hope you all are having a great day today!!!

[KatDaddy]

And just up the Gulf Freeway in League City, TX its also sunny and hot. 93F and humid. I could use a tropical shower today.

[vbhoutex]

And way up the Gulf Freeway and out the Katy Freeway, it is also sunny and hot. WE need tropical showers please!! Less than 2" of rain so far this month.

[KatDaddy]

Only a few showers around SE TX this afternoon. We are needing rain again.

[vbhoutex]

Only a few showers around SE TX this afternoon. We are needing rain again.

Yep I have to water or my grass is going to start dying. With nothing of consequence in the forecast for at least a week, that water bill will start going up. Still in moderate drought at my location.