ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression 02L

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 02, 2013061718, , BEST, 0, 164N, 881W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal022013.dat

[wxman57]

18z Best Track

AL, 02, 2013061718, , BEST, 0, 164N, 881W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal022013.dat

That's 20 miles from the coast an hour ago. Center should be inland shortly.

[BZSTORM]

just seen someone post on Facebook that The marina at Sittee River has posted 3 inches of rain fell in the 12 hour period from 10pm to 10 am today. Punta Negra (just south of Punta Gorda) was reporting half hour ago sea calm and winds just started coming from west. we have white caps out from of my area. this is Belize nemos official release an hour ago I just got back from the village:
NEMO ADVISORY No. 1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NO. TWO

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS APPROACHING COAST OF BELIZE

LOCATION...16.2N 87.6W



ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE

AT 0900 AM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.



THE BOOM CREEK ROAD IN THE TOLEDO DISTRICT IS UNDER 4 FEET OF WATER AND IS IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME. PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE ADVISED TO BE ON THE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN YOUR AREAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS BELIZE.



MOTORISTS ARE ALSO ADVISED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON THE HIGHWAYS AND SECONDARY ROADS.

NEMO CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM. STAY TUNERD TO YOUR LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR FURTHER ADVISORIES FROM NEMO AND THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGY SERVICE.



:- End of Release:-

[Hurricane Andrew]

Do you have a link to these maps?

[Kingarabian]

If it makes it through Mexico and crosses into the EPac, will it keep it's name?

[BZSTORM]

taken at 1.20pm looking NNE from Beach in Seine Bight on Placencia Peninsula. Wind was at time approx 15kts N NE

[cycloneye]

This is where ADT has the center. (Official word is NHC)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 88.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN HARD TO LOCATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE SYSTEM DID NOT STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
IN FACT BECAME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE
GENEROUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND...SOME OF IT
MOUNTAINOUS...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE IN THAT TIME
FRAME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WEAKENING...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE...OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE 1800 UTC TRACK GUIDANCE IS
SOMETHAT SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THIS MORNING...AND SO IS THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GFS...HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF MODEL RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH
AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO EMERGE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.4N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.2N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1800Z 17.9N 91.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/0600Z 18.4N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 19/1800Z 18.8N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 19.3N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/1800Z 19.5N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[supercane4867]

Do you have a link to these maps?

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/

[CrazyC83]

Depressions now go into HURDAT, correct?

[BZSTORM]

well after being deafened by rain on roof, its is now pretty peaceful on peninsula barely no wind and very light rain. A friend in BZ City (north) posted half hour ago that winds getting strong up there her glass windows were vibrating (she used term crackling) as expected North getting the brunt of winds.

[Alyono]

Depressions now go into HURDAT, correct?

do not believe so

[Alyono]

18Z GFS now barely brings this into the BOC

Not a guarantee at all as to whether or not this will make it

[ozonepete]

18Z GFS now barely brings this into the BOC

Not a guarantee at all as to whether or not this will make it

Yup. Will be close.

[cycloneye]

GFS barely has TD 2 in the BOC.

[ozonepete]

Here's the topographical map of the area for anyone interested.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Two is organizing for the time being at least. The circulation has become much tighter and deep convection if firing just east of it in what appears to be a spiral band developing. This trend probably won't last long.

[BZSTORM]

Just posted by local news channel in Belize - this is Southern Foreshore, Belize City

[floridasun78]

if stay open water bet longer we see strong ts even cat 1 hurr