ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[Hurricanehink]

This could be a dumb question, but why does it matter if it's over land or not? If it has an organized LLC (debatable at the current time) and good convection/outflow (which it does seem to have), why couldn't it be upgraded over Honduras? I realize that it appears the NHC doesn't want to, but in other parts of the world, storms forming over land aren't so unheard of (I'm looking at you Australia, and even Arthur 08 in the Atlantic proved otherwise). Mostly what I'm getting at is that it looks like a tropical cyclone now. Would it be unreasonable to classify it as such?

[NDG]

The MLC to ENE is stealing a lot of inflow and is over water. so it could become a new circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yes, I agree, especially since there is really no strong evidence of a defined surface LLC further west closer to the coast of Belize and western Honduras so a new surface COC might form closer to the deep convection, we'll see as the day goes by if this happens or not.

[GCANE]

A number of overshooting tops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Should see the cirrus build this morning.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Taking a look at the GFS/ECWMF/CMC/NAVGEM this morning, they all don't look very bullish on development even in the BOC because they keep the invest very far south and doesn't have enough time over water to really get going.

High Pressure looks very strong over the Southern United States and Gulf of Mexico throughout the next 7 days which would suggest that even if there were development, it would likely be a Mexico-only threat.

[NDG]

The 8 AM report from the Island of Roatan of an easterly wind at 35 mph killed the idea of a circulation NE of this island, IMO.
So the only circulation is the one they are tracking just S or SW of the island.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

[TexasF6]

Big what if here--what if the coc under the blow up of fresh convection takes over? Will 93L then feel that front sagging into Texas Tuesday?

[Sanibel]

I think the Low center is still just inland in Honduras. Should tell the final story on this one for now.

[NDG]

Big what if here--what if the coc under the blow up of fresh convection takes over? Will 93L then feel that front sagging into Texas Tuesday?

Ridging along the GOM is fairly strong, it should continue moving WNW towards the main land of MX after the BOC.

[tailgater]

The 8 AM report from the Island of Roatan of an easterly wind at 35 mph killed the idea of a circulation NE of this island, IMO.
So the only circulation is the one they are tracking just S or SW of the island.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

I wasn't saying that the MLC to the ENE or NE of the one thats being tracked has has a COC already, just that it could easily form one since it's out over water with less wind resistance and seems to be stealing inflow from the current LLC?

[gatorcane]

Looping the SAT imagery, it looks like the circulation SW of Roatan island is a bit more vigorous this morning. It's tracking West at a pretty good clip and probably will be over the Yucatan before it can develop (hence the 40% by the NHC). Even if the LLC were to form to the NE of the island, the difference shouldn't make much of a difference of where the system eventually ends up in the long-term.

[wxman57]

Big what if here--what if the coc under the blow up of fresh convection takes over? Will 93L then feel that front sagging into Texas Tuesday?

Ridging along the GOM is fairly strong, it should continue moving WNW towards the mainland of MX after the BOC.

Agree - Texas doesn't appear to be in its sights.

[BZSTORM]

Anyone have latest buoy readings winds and pressures - its actually pretty calm winds here right now from Placencia Peninsula South to Punta Negra (I have friend there who said its dark with heavy clouds, raining and little to no wind, vertical rain not too heavy, but I woke with sinus headache and that's normally for me sign of pressure change. Thanks in advance Oh link for buoy mapping would be good to have this season, had computer crash and lost 80% of my bookmarks.

[wxman57]

Anyone have latest buoy readings winds and pressures - its actually pretty calm winds here right now from Placencia Peninsula South to Punta Negra (I have friend there who said its dark with heavy clouds, raining and little to no wind, vertical rain not too heavy, but I woke with sinus headache and that's normally for me sign of pressure change. Thanks in advance Oh link for buoy mapping would be good to have this season, had computer crash and lost 80% of my bookmarks.

National Data Buoy Center:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml

There's nothing anywhere near Belize.

[supercane4867]

06z GFS develops it into a minimum TS at BOC

[BZSTORM]

Anyone have latest buoy readings winds and pressures - its actually pretty calm winds here right now from Placencia Peninsula South to Punta Negra (I have friend there who said its dark with heavy clouds, raining and little to no wind, vertical rain not too heavy, but I woke with sinus headache and that's normally for me sign of pressure change. Thanks in advance Oh link for buoy mapping would be good to have this season, had computer crash and lost 80% of my bookmarks.

National Data Buoy Center:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml

There's nothing anywhere near Belize.

Thanks Wxman - There was plan last year for NOAA to put in weather buoy near lighthouse caye in the North and another in the South but I know the team who was to do the substrate survey for what type of anchorage it needed was unable to do so on the survey day due to extremely rough seas. Thought they might have got out earlier this year to do it but guess not. At least the radar is working on website as it has been down for a few weeks.

[ROCK]

looks slightly south than the current presentation but this should have more water than that to work with. Mexico looks like a good bet but how far north up the coast is the question.

[GCANE]

Long-range radar from Belize

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... Belize.gif

[vbhoutex]

Long-range radar from Belize

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... Belize.gif

That sure begs the fact that there appears to be a LLCC on the coast just SW of Roatan. JMHO

[tropicwatch]

Appears to be a fairly nice circulation east of Punta Gorda.

[NDG]

Wind gusting now close to tropical force on the island of Roatan.

Current Weather Conditions:
Roatan, Honduras
(MHRO) 16-19N 086-31W 2M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jun 17, 2013 - 10:00 AM EDTJun 17, 2013 - 09:00 AM CDTJun 17, 2013 - 08:00 AM MDTJun 17, 2013 - 07:00 AM PDTJun 17, 2013 - 06:00 AM ADTJun 17, 2013 - 04:00 AM HST
2013.06.17 1400 UTC
Wind from the E (080 degrees) at 28 MPH (24 KT) gusting to 39 MPH (34 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
ob MHRO 171400Z 08024G34KT 9999 BKN015 FEW020CB BKN070 28/24 Q1010 A2985 NOSIG


http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html