ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

Aric Dunn · #161 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 1:02 am

chaser1 wrote:well, impressive as this continues to look - i'm starting to see evidence that the center may well be over land after all......and slowly developing?!

cant figure how u see that... ?

Hammy · #162 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 3:06 am

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-loop

center coming into view of Belize radar, looks like its right on the coast moving WNW near 16/86.5

bahamaswx · #163 Postby **bahamaswx** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 4:04 am

looking better rather than worse.

#164 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 5:05 am

no evidence of a surface circulation. Nothing at all wrong with the percentages remaining the same. Still more likely than not this does not develop

#165 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 5:46 am

Development chances should rise considerably today as the 48hr outlook extends farther into Wednesday, when development is much more likely. I still think development is nearly certain once it gets to the Bay of Campeche - 80-90%.

#166 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 6:18 am

wxman57 wrote:Development chances should rise considerably today as the 48hr outlook extends farther into Wednesday, when development is much more likely. I still think development is nearly certain once it gets to the Bay of Campeche - 80-90%.

You think it will emerge the Yucatan in a fairly good distance from the Mexican coast of BOC to then develop?

#167 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 6:18 am

Any COC at the surface I think is very close to the coast of Honduras, La Ceiba's last report showed winds switching from the SW and a pressure down to 1009 mb

#168 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 6:38 am

High rain-rate cell beginning to fire pretty far north of the coast.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... bean.0.jpg

#169 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 6:40 am

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HONDURAS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...IT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TODAY...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE
SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER ON TUESDAY OR
THEREAFTER. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND
EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

#170 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 6:42 am

Impressive:

850mb vorticity improving quickly.

No 200mb PV and a good poleward outflow channel.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF

#171 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 6:44 am

RAMMB puts the COC over water

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170345.jpg

#172 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 6:45 am

Textbook warm core at 0.5C

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 7_TANO.GIF

#173 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 6:50 am

GCANE wrote:RAMMB puts the COC over water

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170345.jpg

I agree with this image, of where the COC is this morning, clearly seen from surface reports and long range radar loop from Belize.

#174 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 7:08 am

I estimate the center to be near 15.6N and 86.8W... still inland

Aric Dunn · #175 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 7:14 am

Guess will be waiting on recon..

#176 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 7:18 am

I get the impression from the latest TWO that there will be no recon today. Likely not until Wednesday

Aric Dunn · #177 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 7:22 am

Alyono wrote:I get the impression from the latest TWO that there will be no recon today. Likely not until Wednesday

I suppose the conditions are not going to be any different either way.

#178 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 7:29 am

Note that Belize radar is looking at about 14,000-18,000 ft above the surface. Weak LLC appears to be just off the coast of Honduras about 85 miles ESE of the coast of Belize. Should be moving inland early this afternoon. No recon today. Maybe Wednesday in the BoC.

#179 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 7:29 am

The MLC to ENE is stealing a lot of inflow and is over water. so it could become a new circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Aric Dunn · #180 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 17, 2013 7:38 am

latest visible show two possible circ.. one just off shore sw of roatan Island and the other to the ene of roatan at the edge of the deep convection.

ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

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