Severe weather outbreak - June 12-13 - Midwest, Mid-Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

PDS Tornado Watch 298 coming out now.

[EF-5bigj]

What? A PDS watch man...

[CrazyC83]

Tornado probs are 60/60.

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM
UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MASON
CITY IOWA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS EAST ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST IOWA
EASTWARD ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. A VOLATILE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD FUEL INTENSE THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS AROUND 50KT
SUPPORTS UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION. A NUMBER OF
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO A CONSOLIDATION OF STORMS INTO A
LARGE MCS TOWARD EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADOES WITH ANY
DISCRETE CELLS. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES SEEM POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNDRAFT/DAMAGING WIND THREATS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.


...CARBIN

[RL3AO]

What? A PDS watch man...

Particularly dangerous situation.

[EF-5bigj]

I know what it means it was not expecting a PDS tornado watch.

[RL3AO]

Sorry misread your post.

It has to be a tornado watch because there is a tornado threat. They made it PDS not for the tornadoes, but because they feel the wind threat is dangerous enough.

[Bunkertor]

Eeeek
Hm, when was it the last time i had to read such.... hm..hm.

LOW-LEVEL /0-3
KM/ SRH FROM THE DAVENPORT VWP OF NEAR 300 M2/S2 SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP.

[EF-5bigj]

Yeah I was just not expecting a PDS tornado watch today but this sever season is full of surprises.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, at 2000Z, I would adjust all the threats north somewhat. I think the whole severe weather is shifting up.

[EF-5bigj]

Well the setup does not look like it did when the Plainsview EF-5 occurred. Or I could be wrong I will have to look at the CAPE values again.

[CrazyC83]

I also wonder if a 30% tornado risk area (which is itself a High Risk as well) will be added? Shear parameters are way above forecast.

This looks a lot like June 5, 2010 to me...

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 122000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN IA...NRN
IL...NRN IND...EXTREME SWRN MI AND EXTREME NWRN OH...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA...CNTRL AND NRN
IL...SRN WI...SWRN MI...IND...AND WRN OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE OH VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL AND ERN MT INTO NERN
WY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. THREAT FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT STILL APPEARS ON TRACK
FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION HIGH
AND MODERATE RISK AREAS.

STORMS ARE IN PROCESS OF DEVELOPING FROM NERN IA INTO SRN WI WITHIN
ZONE OF DPVA AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
GENERALLY NE OF SFC LOW AND NORTH OF E-W QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THE
INITIAL SFC BASED STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF SFC LOW MAY ORGANIZE AS
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIAL TORNADO THREAT. STORMS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRANSITION TO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AS IT MOVES
ESEWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

...MT AND NERN WY...

REF SWOMCD 1042.

..DIAL.. 06/12/2013

[Bunkertor]

657
WFUS53 KLOT 122043
TORLOT
ILC103-141-122130-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0005.130612T2043Z-130612T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
343 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN OGLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 342 PM...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR WALTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALTON...ROCHELLE...AMBOY...FRANKLIN GROVE...ASHTON...HILLCREST...
WEST BROOKLYN...STEWARD AND CRESTON.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED...
LEE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...

I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 58 AND 82.
I-39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 85 AND 103.

[RL3AO]

Looks like we get to see the ultra rare PDS Severe Thunderstorm watch.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN IL...SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...SWRN
LOWER MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 122038Z - 122215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A PDS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 22Z.
TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN IA...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL ARE EXPECTED
TO CONGEAL INTO AN ACCELERATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MOVE ESE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS...SOME IN EXCESS OF 65 KTS...ARE LIKELY ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX/QLCS TORNADOES.

[EF-5bigj]

PDS tornado watch now PDS sever thunderstorm watch.

[Bunkertor]

Briefing on tornado watch for southern WI area.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PtpUSkKH24

[Cyclenall]

Well, this could be a huge day for western OH valley and very dangerous for the city of Chicago. Probably the highest threat for tornadoes there in maybe years. Already a powerful supercell heading towards that general area with the boundary in the worst possible location for the city too.

I can't believe that this thread was just created, and such little talk about it! I've been hearing derecho for a few days, ontop of a high tornado threat...with some major cities in the sights of both! Today has the potential to be one of the worst days we've seen in a long time.

I agree, this day has major potential but it didn't totally sneak up on us, it was a shock when I saw High Risk though...up there in Chicago included...when was the last time the city was in HR?

HRRR short range certainly backs up your thinking. Shows lots of broken storms in a cluster in N Illiniois, S Wisconsin. I hope this isn't one of those surprise events that loves to overachieve.

I think it could be one of those events, but because its a High Risk its not going to be weakly forecasted plus there are PDS watches out, overachieving would be almost historic level.

This looks a lot like June 5, 2010 to me...

A lot of been saying that, lots of analogs to that date too.

[Cyclenall]

TORNADO WARNING
ILC201-122130-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0006.130612T2056Z-130612T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
356 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWEST WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 354 PM...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR GERMAN VALLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WINNEBAGO AROUND 420 PM.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4232 8914 4220 8916 4221 8940 4230 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 264DEG 18KT 4225 8939

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

IZZI

Hooks starting on these. I'm noticing on the far NW corner of IL that all these cells that are exploding rapidly are already having hooks or notches before they're even severe warned.

[EF-5bigj]

Everything seems to be getting hooks as you said.

[WeatherGuesser]

New PDS watch includes Chicago, Gary, Ft. Wayne, South Bend, Toledo and Detroit among others.