ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[KBBOCA]

Following @NHC_Surge to see how new mapping and increased focus on storm surge will play out this year. Here's the latest Tweet:

NHC_Surge ‏@NHC_Surge

#stormsurge flooding of up to 5 ft above ground, or inundation, is possible in Florida Big Bend area with next high tide this afternoon

[artist]

Reports coming in of some signifigant damage in the Acerage, which is in Palm Beach County. I have family right around where some of the worst damage is and they said the wind just started howling and things began flying by and then it was over.. lasted about 20 seconds.

glad they are ok.

Yeah, we live out in the Acreage. Not pretty.

[greenkat]

Seems like Andrea isn't going to be the waste of a name everyone thought it would be! I don't know if that's good or bad

[Stormcenter]

I think everyone should be a little surprised this morning.....except for the Canadian model.

[Janie2006]

The heavy squalls are going to bring stronger winds to the surface and I've no doubt the warnings are going to be lighting up the west coast, so buckle down.

[ROCK]

I think everyone should be a little surprised this morning.....except for the Canadian model.

agree..CMC did very well and did not waver all that much compared to the GFS and EURO (splitting lows, shearing out etc)..

that E- SE jog was very odd....its trying to consolidate and come together. I dont know if that was because of land friction slowing down the outward circulation so the LLC can catch up....something to think about.

[ronjon]

I think everyone should be a little surprised this morning.....except for the Canadian model.

Actually the ECM from the 00z run really deepened Andrea too - I know a little late but interesting.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013060600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[artist]

The heavy squalls are going to bring stronger winds to the surface and I've no doubt the warnings are going to be lighting up the west coast, so buckle down.

Yes, please take it seriously, guys.

[greenkat]

Any chance of a hurricane watch anywhere? Andrea seems to be getting up there in intensity...

[robbielyn]

its not going se its just wrapping around you can see the last couple of frame a nice coc still headed to cedar key.

[HurricaneBelle]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
958 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 957 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR GULFPORT...OR NEAR SAINT PETE BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT
30 MPH.

* THE WATERSPOUT WILL BE NEAR...
GULFPORT...SAINT PETERSBURG.
TROPICANA FIELD...DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG.
LEALMAN...SAWGRASS LAKE PARK.
PINELLAS PARK.
HIGHPOINT...LARGO.
SAINT PETE CLEARWATER AIRPORT...CLEARWATER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 275 BETWEEN EXITS 6 AND 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...AS WATERSPOUTS MOVE ASHORE THEY BECOME TORNADOES AND
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

[SouthDadeFish]

Strong band about to affect to greater Tampa area, including a tornado warning for Pinellas County. Radar showing rotation.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 282...

VALID 061403Z - 061500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 282 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REISSUED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE PENINSULA BY
15Z.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. CENTER OF CIRCULATION
APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 120 MI WEST OF PIE...LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. WHILE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED OVER LAND
DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP...A FEW STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA THIS
SHOULD ENCOURAGE A BIT MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE DISCRETE STRUCTURES.

..DARROW/WEISS.. 06/06/2013


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 28898281 28908066 25487958 25498165 28898281

[ronjon]

Convection wrapping around the center and its shrinking in size. Is Andrea making a run at hurricane status? Expect to start seeing the tide rise rapidly in Tampa Bay and points south as the center moves north of your latitude. High tide in St Pete is around 12:30 pm.

[ddad040]

Is Andrea taking a bit of an eastwardly jog? Looks like it looping the radar and SAT imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Plus convection continues to build around the center of Andrea. Quite impressive she has organized this quickly in a matter of 24 hours I must say!

We may have to tip our hat to the CMC when this is done, though I think the CMC showed even a stronger system than this right now.

The CMC did get a big SW upgrade this year so that may have helped it forecast this.

Still the GFS and Euro did not show this when you looked at their runs from several days ago.

I remember when the GFS was trying to split the low in the Eastern Gulf but kept both lows weak.

I am not going to jump on the CMC bandwagon, but maybe give it some credit this time

[Terry]

Convection wrapping around the center and its shrinking in size. Is Andrea making a run at hurricane status? Expect to start seeing the tide rise rapidly in Tampa Bay and points south as the center moves north of your latitude. High tide in St Pete is around 12:30 pm.

Tides in our area around Tampa Bay are suppose to be 2-4 feet on top of the high. The Big Bend area is the place I am concerned about.

[NDG]

44 mph wind gust so far in St Pete


Conditions at: KPIE observed 06 June 2013 13:50 UTC
Temperature: 24.0°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.72 inches Hg (1006.5 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 29 MPH (25 knots; 13.0 m/s)
gusting to 44 MPH (38 knots; 19.8 m/s)
Visibility: 1.50 miles (2.41 km)
Ceiling: 900 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 900 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2200 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)

[tropicwatch]

I don't know if she will make it to hurricane strength but I am glad she is moving fast. This should keep any strengthening to a minimum before landfall.

[ronjon]

Tides at St Pete are rising. Currently about 1 ft above normal.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8726520%20St.%20Petersburg,%20FL&type=Tide%20Data

[TheStormExpert]

Andrea is really reminding me a lot of TS Alberto(2006) now that it has 60mph winds. Alberto even strengthened further than expected as it got into the northeastern GoM. Even the forecast track is about the same.