ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Of note, GOES 13 comes back online today:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/MESS/MSG1551908.01.txt
From: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html

"GOES-13, at 75 degrees West, will return to GOES-East operations on Thursday, June 6, 2013, at approximately 1534 -1545 UTC (first image at 1545 UTC). Derived products from GOES-13 will begin immediately following the switchover."

Hopefully that all goes smoothly.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I think they just forgot to delete 91L's link earlier I noticed there was a second link right around upgrade time, and it's been the same since.

Some sites might still link to the original floater, so perhaps they are just keeping it around for awhile. Can't remember how that usually goes.

[SouthDadeFish]

I have just finished a blog entry on TS Andrea for those interested:

http://fischerwx.wordpress.com/2013/06/06/tropical-storm-andrea-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Also, it appears recon is confirming that Andrea is slowly intensifying.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060530
AF303 0201A ANDREA HDOB 12 20130606
052200 2550N 08520W 8424 01535 0061 +168 +168 222049 053 042 011 00
052230 2549N 08518W 8430 01532 0061 +163 +163 217046 050 046 012 00
052300 2548N 08517W 8429 01531 0060 +163 +162 214046 047 040 013 00
052330 2547N 08516W 8430 01533 0053 +171 +164 214046 047 037 006 00
052400 2546N 08515W 8431 01534 0054 +171 +162 215047 048 037 004 00
052430 2545N 08514W 8433 01532 0057 +169 +164 215048 048 036 003 00
052500 2544N 08512W 8427 01538 0057 +171 +154 218049 049 037 002 00
052530 2542N 08511W 8429 01538 0060 +169 +152 218049 049 035 002 00
052600 2542N 08511W 8429 01538 0064 +163 +159 217049 050 034 000 00
052630 2540N 08509W 8425 01543 0065 +160 +158 216050 050 035 000 03
052700 2539N 08508W 8434 01537 0067 +164 +156 215049 050 034 000 03
052730 2538N 08506W 8428 01543 0065 +166 +153 216048 049 034 001 03
052800 2537N 08505W 8429 01542 0066 +165 +155 215049 049 034 001 00
052830 2536N 08504W 8434 01538 0066 +165 +153 213049 049 034 001 00
052900 2535N 08503W 8426 01546 0070 +165 +146 210048 049 033 000 00
052930 2534N 08502W 8426 01546 0071 +165 +144 211047 047 033 001 00
053000 2533N 08500W 8431 01544 0070 +167 +141 209048 048 034 000 00
053030 2531N 08459W 8424 01547 0067 +167 +153 214043 048 038 002 01
053100 2530N 08458W 8430 01545 0074 +162 +160 210044 046 041 004 00
053130 2529N 08457W 8432 01541 0072 +162 +160 215046 047 037 006 05
$$
;

53 kts flt lv; 46 kts sfmr

[SouthDadeFish]

Microwave imagery shows an increase in organization compared to earlier today/yesterday, but still a sheared storm:

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060540
AF303 0201A ANDREA HDOB 13 20130606
053200 2528N 08456W 8432 01545 0071 +167 +154 216047 048 036 002 00
053230 2527N 08455W 8434 01542 0079 +159 //// 215049 050 038 005 01
053300 2526N 08453W 8428 01547 0080 +158 //// 214049 050 037 005 01
053330 2525N 08452W 8428 01550 0079 +158 //// 215050 052 036 004 01
053400 2524N 08451W 8426 01553 0074 +165 +157 215048 049 036 002 00
053430 2523N 08450W 8434 01544 0076 +164 +157 212049 049 034 002 00
053500 2522N 08449W 8429 01551 //// +161 //// 212048 048 034 000 01
053530 2521N 08447W 8428 01553 0077 +164 +161 211048 049 035 001 01
053600 2519N 08446W 8433 01549 0078 +165 +160 210048 048 033 001 03
053630 2519N 08445W 8421 01560 0081 +165 +162 208048 049 030 002 03
053700 2520N 08443W 8432 01553 0079 +167 +157 207047 049 /// /// 03
053730 2522N 08444W 8439 01542 0077 +165 +158 206047 047 034 000 03
053800 2522N 08444W 8439 01542 0078 +165 +159 205048 048 034 001 00
053830 2526N 08444W 8431 01548 0078 +164 +159 207048 048 036 001 00
053900 2528N 08444W 8428 01550 0075 +165 +157 207049 050 036 000 00
053930 2530N 08444W 8435 01546 0075 +165 +157 206048 049 036 000 00
054000 2532N 08444W 8427 01550 0075 +165 +156 206048 049 035 002 00
054030 2534N 08444W 8430 01546 0074 +161 +158 206049 049 034 000 00
054100 2536N 08444W 8430 01546 0074 +161 +156 205049 050 034 000 01
054130 2538N 08444W 8430 01545 0073 +161 +149 206048 049 034 001 00
$$
;

[TheStormExpert]

TS Alberto(2006) which seems to be very identical at the moment to Andrea was a east-weighed storm and managed to try and make a run for hurricane status prior to landfall in the big bend region of FL. Even hurricane warnings were issued.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 060539
97779 05354 50253 84809 15300 21048 15159 /2480
RMK AF303 0201A ANDREA OB 06
SWS = 34 KTS
SE EXIT PT
;

[brunota2003]

Watch that convection, looking at the microwave images, I would not be surprised if there are some strong winds there...particularly NE of the center.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060550
AF303 0201A ANDREA HDOB 14 20130606
054200 2540N 08444W 8429 01544 0071 +164 +146 205048 049 034 001 00
054230 2542N 08444W 8433 01540 0070 +165 +151 208047 049 034 001 03
054300 2544N 08444W 8426 01548 0069 +165 +146 208048 049 034 001 00
054330 2546N 08444W 8427 01547 0069 +163 +148 207047 049 036 002 00
054400 2548N 08444W 8427 01545 0069 +161 +153 206045 046 039 001 03
054430 2550N 08444W 8430 01539 0068 +164 +143 207048 049 040 000 00
054500 2552N 08444W 8434 01536 0068 +161 +147 207048 048 039 001 03
054530 2554N 08444W 8427 01540 0067 +160 +149 206048 049 038 002 00
054600 2556N 08444W 8428 01541 0068 +157 //// 205045 048 039 004 01
054630 2558N 08443W 8426 01540 //// +160 //// 206046 046 037 001 01
054700 2600N 08443W 8433 01536 0065 +160 +159 206046 046 037 001 01
054730 2602N 08443W 8428 01541 0064 +162 +155 207046 047 036 001 00
054800 2604N 08443W 8431 01537 0064 +161 +155 207047 047 036 000 03
054830 2606N 08443W 8433 01533 0063 +163 +155 206047 047 039 001 00
054900 2608N 08443W 8429 01538 0063 +160 +157 206047 048 040 002 00
054930 2610N 08443W 8425 01538 0059 +164 +161 202049 051 038 005 00
055000 2612N 08443W 8429 01539 0067 +164 //// 198043 050 053 023 01
055030 2614N 08443W 8430 01533 0059 +163 //// 197048 049 040 004 01
055100 2616N 08443W 8422 01539 0057 +165 //// 194048 050 038 004 05
055130 2618N 08443W 8431 01534 0059 +166 //// 193048 050 034 006 01
$$
;

[Dave]

anybody want to pick up hdobs?

[Dave]

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, looking at the above microwave image, along with MIMIC images from CIMMS, it looks like I get to make an RI forecast.

Pros for RI:
- It is a fairly small system
- It is forecast to come ashore fairly weak, and it is near land late at night

Cons:
- It is near land
- It is early in the season
- I don't want it to
- Lack of time until landfall
- Shear
- No one else wants it to

At 11 pm EDT, the wind speed was 35 knots (40 knots now as of 2 am). I will use 11 pm as my 24 hour marker. Thanks to land interaction and less than 24 hours to landfall (along with shear), I do not believe it will reach the 30 knots needed to classify it as rapid intensification. However, I will forecast strengthening, of about 20 knots. This will put the system at 55 to 60 knots before landfall.

Did I mention it is early in the season?

EDIT:
Just for the record, the indicator looks like it popped up around 9 or 10 pm. Generally RI doesn't start until a few hours later...which would be between 12 am and 2 am, with such a small system.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060600
AF303 0201A ANDREA HDOB 15 20130606
055200 2620N 08443W 8432 01529 0054 +165 +162 196049 051 032 003 01
055230 2622N 08443W 8419 01541 0057 +164 +164 193051 052 034 004 01
055300 2625N 08443W 8431 01529 0062 +162 //// 192051 055 035 006 01
055330 2627N 08443W 8434 01526 0060 +161 //// 189050 051 034 006 01
055400 2629N 08443W 8426 01532 0062 +159 +159 188052 053 039 009 00
055430 2631N 08443W 8431 01527 0067 +161 +161 183052 053 039 009 00
055500 2633N 08443W 8427 01534 0065 +161 //// 180048 051 038 009 01
055530 2635N 08443W 8430 01530 0052 +165 //// 181047 049 040 004 01
055600 2637N 08443W 8431 01529 0054 +164 //// 181048 049 041 003 01
055630 2639N 08443W 8430 01529 //// +161 //// 180050 051 043 003 01
055700 2641N 08443W 8428 01533 0057 +160 //// 180048 049 041 004 01
055730 2643N 08443W 8428 01533 0056 +159 //// 179048 049 042 003 01
055800 2645N 08443W 8431 01527 0059 +160 +160 181050 051 043 006 00
055830 2647N 08442W 8438 01514 0056 +163 +163 175056 060 043 008 00
055900 2649N 08442W 8419 01535 0061 +165 //// 157053 059 044 028 05
055930 2652N 08442W 8434 01517 0056 +168 +168 155058 061 055 028 03
060000 2654N 08442W 8425 01523 0054 +165 +165 161059 062 055 025 00
060030 2656N 08442W 8443 01506 0054 +166 +166 150059 063 051 013 00
060100 2658N 08442W 8421 01531 0053 +165 +165 154057 061 044 010 00
060130 2700N 08442W 8432 01520 //// +161 //// 151055 056 043 008 01
$$

63 kts flt; 55 kts sfmr

[brunota2003]

I can pick them up if no one else wants to, but I don't know how late I'll be up!

[Dave]

I can pick them up if no one else wants to, but I don't know how late I'll be up!

Go ahead and grab a few....about 4.5 mins to the next set.

[SunnyThoughts]

summary of 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...26.8n 86.2w
about 240 mi...385 km WSW of Tampa Florida
about 215 mi...345 km SSW of Apalachicola Florida
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...N or 10 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/h
minimum central pressure...1001 mb...29.56 inches




watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...


none.


Summary of watches and warnings in effect...


a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the West Coast of Florida from Boca Grande to Ochlocknee river


a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Flagler Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina


a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.


A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.


For storm information specific to your area in the United
States...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.






Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Andrea was
located near latitude 26.8 north...longitude 86.2 west. Andrea is
moving toward the north near 10 mph...17 km/h. A turn toward the
northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected
today. On the forecast track...the center of Andrea will reach the
coast of the Florida Big Bend area late Thursday and then move
across southeastern Georgia...southeastern South Carolina and
eastern North Carolina by Friday.


Data from a reconnaissance plane and a NOAA buoy indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph...75 km/h...
with higher gusts. These winds are occurring primarily to the north
and east of the center. No significant change in strength is
anticipated during the next 48 hours.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center. NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported a wind gust of 47
mph...76 km/h.


The estimated minimum central pressure...based on data from NOAA
buoy 42003 and a reconnaissance aircraft...is 1001 mb...29.56
inches.




Hazards affecting land
----------------------
storm surge...the combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola...2 to 4 ft
Florida West Coast south of Tampa Bay...1 to 2 ft


the deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle...and can
vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area...please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service office.


Rainfall...Andrea is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over much of the Florida Peninsula...eastern parts of
the Florida Panhandle...and southeastern Georgia...with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches possible. Total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches are also expected over eastern South Carolina and
eastern North Carolina.


Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later today...making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Thursday night and Friday.


Tornadoes...a few tornadoes are possible over the Florida Peninsula
through Thursday.




Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...400 am CDT.


$$
Forecaster Avila
a

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060610
AF303 0201A ANDREA HDOB 16 20130606
060200 2702N 08442W 8427 01526 0047 +164 +163 152057 059 040 001 00
060230 2704N 08442W 8428 01524 0048 +163 //// 151062 063 042 006 01
060300 2706N 08442W 8432 01522 0053 +163 +163 150060 063 042 007 00
060330 2708N 08442W 8432 01521 0057 +158 +158 152058 059 043 011 00
060400 2710N 08442W 8423 01536 0062 +158 +158 144055 058 042 012 00
060430 2712N 08442W 8426 01532 0061 +156 +156 145052 053 042 010 00
060500 2714N 08442W 8423 01535 0064 +157 +157 142054 054 044 010 00
060530 2716N 08442W 8425 01535 0068 +158 +158 144052 055 040 012 00
060600 2718N 08442W 8428 01534 0067 +161 +161 144050 052 042 013 00
060630 2720N 08442W 8436 01522 0067 +159 +159 143046 048 042 010 00
060700 2722N 08442W 8429 01535 0068 +158 +158 141047 049 042 011 00
060730 2724N 08442W 8425 01538 0069 +161 +161 137048 051 042 010 00
060800 2726N 08442W 8428 01536 0066 +162 +162 136047 049 042 010 00
060830 2728N 08442W 8428 01538 0064 +160 +160 149045 047 041 008 00
060900 2730N 08442W 8432 01531 0067 +157 +157 156044 045 044 011 00
060930 2732N 08441W 8433 01531 0074 +156 +156 151046 047 043 014 00
061000 2734N 08441W 8434 01530 0074 +159 +159 145047 049 042 011 00
061030 2736N 08441W 8427 01539 0073 +157 +157 142046 047 045 014 00
061100 2738N 08441W 8429 01537 0077 +156 +156 136048 050 045 014 00
061130 2739N 08441W 8428 01539 0079 +155 +155 135051 052 041 010 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

VDM from earlier:

000
URNT12 KNHC 060551
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012013
A. 06/05:01:10Z
B. 26 deg 39 min N
086 deg 13 min W
C. 850 mb 1432 m
D. 31 kt
E. 307 deg 22 nm
F. 053 deg 38 kt
G. 309 deg 40 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 16 C / 1528 m
J. 18 C / 1526 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF303 0201A ANDREA OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT 132/68 05:21:50Z