ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[MiamiensisWx]

Miami, do you have a link to that? Sure didn't look that strong to me.

I just added it to the post. At 96 hours, there is a 35-m/s contour (dark green) near Jacksonville.

[caneman]

12z euro is a little stronger than previous runs, it hangs the low pressure just north of the Yucatan Peninsula through the next 48-72 hrs.

Takes it into the Big Bend area of Florida near Cedar Key.

12z Canadian has a 70kt Hurricane into Appalachicola.

The 12Z ECMWF is actually 20 kt stronger than in the 00Z run. It shows 850-mb winds of 35 m/s at the time of landfall in four days near Cedar Key. This translates to 61 kt / 70 mph at the surface. So the ECMWF now shows a near-hurricane hit, albeit with most winds displaced well to the east of the center. Even strong tropical storms can be somewhat disorganized, but the trough seems to impart divergence which is co-located with the low-level center, thereby minimizing the negative impacts of the shear.

12Z ECMWF at 96 hours

This means very high tides along the west coast of FL due to the large wind field and the angle of approach. Tides could easily be 5-6' above mean sea level from the Everglades National Park to north of Tarpon Springs--according to the track shown by the ECMWF. No one should be complacent; even a large but disorganized TS produced quite a bit of beach erosion and flooding on the Gulf Coast.

Hey, you're up in our neck of the woods now. Weren't you in Miami before?

[Hurricane Andrew]

That is at 850mb level. Looks really messy anyway, with high winds away from the center. More like a weak TS.

[wxman57]

The 12Z ECMWF is actually 20 kt stronger than in the 00Z run. It shows 850-mb winds of 35 m/s at the time of landfall in four days near Cedar Key. This translates to 61 kt / 70 mph at the surface. So the ECMWF now shows a near-hurricane hit, albeit with most winds displaced well to the east of the center. Even strong tropical storms can be somewhat disorganized, but the trough seems to impart divergence which is co-located with the low-level center, thereby minimizing the negative impacts of the shear.

12Z ECMWF at 96 hours

This means very high tides along the west coast of FL due to the large wind field and the angle of approach. Tides could easily be 5-6' above mean sea level from the Everglades National Park to north of Tarpon Springs--according to the track shown by the ECMWF. No one should be complacent; even a large but disorganized TS produced quite a bit of beach erosion and flooding on the Gulf Coast.

You're making an incorrect assumption. Relatively strong winds aloft as the system interacts with an upper-level trof won't translate to the surface. I'm looking at the high-res Euro 10m wind forecast and see only 25-28 kts around the 1005 mb low center.

[MiamiensisWx]

Hey, you're up in our neck of the woods now. Weren't you in Miami before?

Hello, neighbor! Yes, I once lived in the Miami metro area, meaning SE Florida, in Boca Raton to be exact. I just started attending college at USF Saint Petersburg in Pinellas County this spring. I am currently back in Boca for summer break, but I will return to St. Pete for the fall and spring semesters of 2013-2014. So my real "home" is in St. Pete. What a special city...but more vulnerable to storm surge than in SE FL, thanks to the shallow Gulf shelf. Anyway, too many people who don't live on the Gulf do not know why we take even messy tropical storms seriously due to the surge. The ECMWF is showing a large storm at LF, meaning more of a fetch / surge hazard for the FL Gulf Coast from near Naples to near Cedar Key.

Andrew, since 1 m/s = 1.94 kt, I multiplied 35 m/s*1.94 kt = 67.9 kt at 850 mb. Since the NHC uses about a 90% reduction factor, I got 61 kt (70 mph) at 10 m (the surface).

Edit: Ah, never mind. Thanks to wxman57 for correcting me.

[Dave]

THIS MISSION WAS CANCELLED BY NHC THIS MORNING (TUESDAY) - SEE NEXT MISSIONS BELOW

NOUS42 KNHC 031421
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT MON 03 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA---GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
C. 04/1730Z
D. 24.0N 88.5W
E. 04/1845Z TO 04/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
NEAR 24.5N 88.5W AT 05/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$

[Alyono]

12z euro is a little stronger than previous runs, it hangs the low pressure just north of the Yucatan Peninsula through the next 48-72 hrs.

Takes it into the Big Bend area of Florida near Cedar Key.

12z Canadian has a 70kt Hurricane into Appalachicola.

The 12Z ECMWF is actually 20 kt stronger than in the 00Z run. It shows 850-mb winds of 35 m/s at the time of landfall in four days near Cedar Key. This translates to 61 kt / 70 mph at the surface. So the ECMWF now shows a near-hurricane hit, albeit with most winds displaced well to the east of the center. Even strong tropical storms can be somewhat disorganized, but the trough seems to impart divergence which is co-located with the low-level center, thereby minimizing the negative impacts of the shear.

12Z ECMWF at 96 hours

This means very high tides along the west coast of FL due to the large wind field and the angle of approach. Tides could easily be 5-6' above mean sea level from the Everglades National Park to north of Tarpon Springs--according to the track shown by the ECMWF. No one should be complacent; even a large but disorganized TS produced quite a bit of beach erosion and flooding on the Gulf Coast.

ECMWF is nowhere near hurricane intensity. In fact, the 10m winds are not even TS intensity

[wxman57]

Here's a screen shot of the 96hr EC. Elongated low across north FL. About 1004mb in NE Gulf. Looks more like a trof axis/frontal boundary extending SW from the low(s). Lots of 20-25 kt winds from the SW into FL. I get the high-res Euro in 3hr intervals now:

[MiamiensisWx]

Here's a screen shot of the 96hr EC. Elongated low across north FL. About 1004mb in NE Gulf. Looks more like a trof axis/frontal boundary extending SW from the low(s). Lots of 20-25 kt winds from the SW into FL. I get the high-res Euro in 3hr intervals now:

There's no substitute for AWIPS...thanks so much for posting this and, again, for correcting me.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Latest Ruskin discussion...

LOWER LCLS CAN BE EXPECTED THANKS TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS...WITH THE 12Z GFS FEATURING AROUND A 700 FT LCL FOR TPA...A
500 FT LCL AT SRQ...A 600 FT LCL AT LAL...AND A 700-800 FT LCL AT
FMY AROUND 18Z THURSDAY...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES. WITH THE
LOW FORECAST TO PASS WEST OF THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL JET ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCESSIBLE TO POTENTIAL TORNADIC
CONVECTION. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN
INCREASING 0-1 KM HELICITY TREND STARTING AT 00Z THURSDAY...WITH
VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EASILY PEAKING ABOVE
20-25 KNOTS ALSO RAISES A LARGE RED FLAG FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE RESPECTABLE.

Is this for the Ruskin area?

[psyclone]

12z euro is a little stronger than previous runs, it hangs the low pressure just north of the Yucatan Peninsula through the next 48-72 hrs.

Takes it into the Big Bend area of Florida near Cedar Key.

12z Canadian has a 70kt Hurricane into Appalachicola.

The 12Z ECMWF is actually 20 kt stronger than in the 00Z run. It shows 850-mb winds of 35 m/s at the time of landfall in four days near Cedar Key. This translates to 61 kt / 70 mph at the surface. So the ECMWF now shows a near-hurricane hit, albeit with most winds displaced well to the east of the center. Even strong tropical storms can be somewhat disorganized, but the trough seems to impart divergence which is co-located with the low-level center, thereby minimizing the negative impacts of the shear.

12Z ECMWF at 96 hours

This means very high tides along the west coast of FL due to the large wind field and the angle of approach. Tides could easily be 5-6' above mean sea level from the Everglades National Park to north of Tarpon Springs--according to the track shown by the ECMWF. No one should be complacent; even a large but disorganized TS produced quite a bit of beach erosion and flooding on the Gulf Coast.

I wouldn't sweat anything yet. hurricane gordon (version Y2K) passed just west of tampa bay as a minimal cane on its was to an eventual TS landfall at cedar key. It did so with minimal problems. I'm having a tough time envisioning this as anything more than a heavy rain/svr threat vs tidal threat although any southerly flow (even that which occurs in advance of a strong cold front) is an efficient beach eater around these parts.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

Hey, you're up in our neck of the woods now. Weren't you in Miami before?

Hello, neighbor! Yes, I once lived in the Miami metro area, meaning SE Florida, in Boca Raton to be exact. I just started attending college at USF Saint Petersburg in Pinellas County this spring. I am currently back in Boca for summer break, but I will return to St. Pete for the fall and spring semesters of 2013-2014. So my real "home" is in St. Pete. What a special city...but more vulnerable to storm surge than in SE FL, thanks to the shallow Gulf shelf. Anyway, too many people who don't live on the Gulf do not know why we take even messy tropical storms seriously due to the surge. The ECMWF is showing a large storm at LF, meaning more of a fetch / surge hazard for the FL Gulf Coast from near Naples to near Cedar Key.

Andrew, since 1 m/s = 1.94 kt, I multiplied 35 m/s*1.94 kt = 67.9 kt at 850 mb. Since the NHC uses about a 90% reduction factor, I got 61 kt (70 mph) at 10 m (the surface).

Edit: Ah, never mind. Thanks to wxman57 for correcting me.

the standard reduction, which does not apply in this case, is 80 percent from 850mb, not 90. 90 is from 700

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest Ruskin discussion...

LOWER LCLS CAN BE EXPECTED THANKS TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS...WITH THE 12Z GFS FEATURING AROUND A 700 FT LCL FOR TPA...A
500 FT LCL AT SRQ...A 600 FT LCL AT LAL...AND A 700-800 FT LCL AT
FMY AROUND 18Z THURSDAY...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES. WITH THE
LOW FORECAST TO PASS WEST OF THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL JET ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCESSIBLE TO POTENTIAL TORNADIC
CONVECTION. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN
INCREASING 0-1 KM HELICITY TREND STARTING AT 00Z THURSDAY...WITH
VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EASILY PEAKING ABOVE
20-25 KNOTS ALSO RAISES A LARGE RED FLAG FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE RESPECTABLE.

Is this for the Ruskin area?

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TBW&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[MiamiensisWx]

the standard reduction, which does not apply in this case, is 80 percent from 850mb, not 90. 90 is from 700

Ah, I must have confused the two...thanks as usual!

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass from 5 hours ago.

[SouthDadeFish]

This was from earlier today, but it shows the broad, elongated center taking shape:



Edit: Luis I noticed you just beat me haha. You can remove my post if you wish.

[Ikester]

Latest Satellite Wind Analysis

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1306031800

GCANE, is that in the low or mid level winds?

Its not surface, more about 850 to 700mb level.

Yes, but if you stir the top of a cup of coffee long enough, the circulation eventually makes it to the bottom of the cup. Same idea here.

[Evil Jeremy]

Well that ASCAT (man I miss QUIKSCAT) coincides with what GCANE posted earlier. Still can't see a circulation there on satellite though.

[cycloneye]

This was from earlier today, but it shows the broad, elongated center taking shape:

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/4435/2 ... wind91.jpg

Edit: Luis I noticed you just beat me haha. You can remove my post if you wish.

Oh my,we thinked alike about that No problem to leave it as it a broader perspective than the one I posted.

[SouthDadeFish]

Well that ASCAT (man I miss QUIKSCAT) coincides with what GCANE posted earlier. Still can't see a circulation there on satellite though.

I definitely see the broad cyclonic turning that ASCAT pass shows. Try using the RGB product. It helps one see the low-level clouds.