#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 29, 2013 11:11 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3N
88.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY, JUST OFF THE COAST OF INDIA, WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 291343Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM THAT HAS
MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDING DESPITE THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTH, OVER LAND, IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN DUE TO THE LAND
INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. DUE TO THE WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacifichttps://www.weather.gov/gum/