Is now TC JAMALA.
WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 8.7S 86.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 86.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 9.2S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 9.7S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 10.2S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.5S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.5S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 12.0S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 8.8S 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 35 TO
45 KNOTS. TC 24S IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S WESTWARD BUT DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER TO OFFSET THE UKMO SOLUTION. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS FORECAST TO RELAX, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION. TC 24S SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT 70
KNOTS BY TAU 72 THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER,
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
![Image](http://oi42.tinypic.com/261c0wk.jpg)