![Image](http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2313.gif)
WTPS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292221ZAPR2013//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.0S 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.7S 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.1S 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.3S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.0S 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 149.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ZANE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE, WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF
INDICATING THE LLCC HAS INTENSIFIED TO WARNING STATUS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BELOW THE AXIS OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE AS THE LLCC TRACKS WESTWARD, MAKING
LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT OVER AUSTRALIA WILL START THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
BY TAU 48 WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK INTO THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA, DUE TO THE MIX OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS COMPETING FOR THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON
INTENSITY. THIS FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
THE TRACK NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
292221Z APR 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 292230)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z AND 010300Z.//
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