Texas Spring 2013
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
American models are shifting to the Euro (no surprise) which is letting the HPC be a little more hopeful with rainfall amounts. The I-35 corridor and to the east should get sufficient rain of 0.50-1+ inches including DFW, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston locally higher if the line slows or training occurs. The further west you get (Edwards plateau to the Permian basin) the less you will see this weekend.
Good time to lay down lawn fertilizer for the spring before the rain arrives!
Good time to lay down lawn fertilizer for the spring before the rain arrives!
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re:
Ntxw wrote:American models are shifting to the Euro (no surprise) which is letting the HPC be a little more hopeful with rainfall amounts. The I-35 corridor and to the east should get sufficient rain of 0.50-1+ inches including DFW, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston locally higher if the line slows or training occurs. The further west you get (Edwards plateau to the Permian basin) the less you will see this weekend.
Good time to lay down lawn fertilizer for the spring before the rain arrives!
I hope we get a good soaker (as a lot of us feel)! It has been drizzling/light raining off and on all morning.
Oh shoot! Of course I'll be out of town today through this weekend. Have to wait on the fertilizer until next week after the rain.
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Yukon Cornelius
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- Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO
Re: Texas Spring 2013
We have had a 60-80% chance of shower and thunderstorms forecasted for the last two days and didnt see a drop. Something needs to change really soon.
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Spring 2013
Yukon Cornelius wrote:We have had a 60-80% chance of shower and thunderstorms forecasted for the last two days and didnt see a drop. Something needs to change really soon.
Models have never shown much for NW Texas in and around the Wichita Falls region. This is an I-35 corridor and east affair mostly.
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horselattitudesfarm
- Category 1
- Posts: 315
- Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:55 pm
- Location: Asheville, NC (formerly from Dallas, TX)
Re: Texas Spring 2013
Sure would like to see more colors on that radar loop for us Texans. Looks like all the storms are scared of Texas and high-tailing it into Oklahoma. (I'm gonna have to try not to keep looking at it...you know what they say about that 'watched-pot'.) 
I don't like the tilt in it either and would like to see more pooling back to the west. Lets hope it 'juices up' before tonight after all this hoopla about a big rain event. NWS still saying a 100% chance of thunderstorms for DFW so I got my hopes up. LI values are good for storms, only if we could get some insolation on this atmosphere around here.
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Uploaded with ImageShack.us
I don't like the tilt in it either and would like to see more pooling back to the west. Lets hope it 'juices up' before tonight after all this hoopla about a big rain event. NWS still saying a 100% chance of thunderstorms for DFW so I got my hopes up. LI values are good for storms, only if we could get some insolation on this atmosphere around here.[/URL]Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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horselattitudesfarm
- Category 1
- Posts: 315
- Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:55 pm
- Location: Asheville, NC (formerly from Dallas, TX)
Re: Texas Spring 2013
Here's a more recent snapshot: That line is looking mighty anorexic 
As an old commercial once exclaimed, "Where's the Beef!!"
[/URL]
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As an old commercial once exclaimed, "Where's the Beef!!"[/URL]Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Re: Texas Spring 2013
horselattitudesfarm wrote:Here's a more recent snapshot: That line is looking mighty anorexic
That is not the thunderstorms associated with the main energy. The vorticity is still in the NM/AZ and the associated cold front won't come until much later this evening. What you are looking at is whimsey outflow boundary storms from pre-existing thunderstorms earlier.
Once the cold front and dryline merge and march east closer to I-35 it will build a solid line of thunderstorms
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horselattitudesfarm
- Category 1
- Posts: 315
- Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:55 pm
- Location: Asheville, NC (formerly from Dallas, TX)
Re: Texas Spring 2013
Ntxw wrote:That is not the thunderstorms associated with the main energy. The vorticity is still in the NM/AZ and the associated cold front won't come until much later this evening. What you are looking at is whimsey outflow boundary storms from pre-existing thunderstorms earlier Once the cold front and dryline merge and march east closer to I-35 it will build a solid line of thunderstorms
I sure hope so. I'm countin' on ya!, or...uh...it
I just put a bunch of fertilizer out and some spring plants, so it has to work against that jinx. (The last 2 times they predicted rain and I fertilized, the rain didn't materialize. Its kind of the opposite of the washing-the-car-effect) This time I washed the car also, so maybe the effects will cancel 
Last edited by horselattitudesfarm on Sat Mar 09, 2013 2:15 pm, edited 11 times in total.
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Re: Texas Spring 2013
horselattitudesfarm wrote:I sure hope so. I'm countin' on ya!, or...uh...it
i hear ya too! I put fertilizer too this morning expecting the rain. HPC paints 0.50 to 2 inches (more east less west) in the DFW area tonight.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 49
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC035-049-059-077-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-143-147-181-193-
221-237-251-307-333-337-363-367-411-425-429-439-497-503-
100500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0049.130309T1950Z-130310T0500Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS
DENTON EASTLAND ERATH
FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON
HOOD JACK JOHNSON
MCCULLOCH MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER SAN SABA
SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT
WISE YOUNG
$$
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC035-049-059-077-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-143-147-181-193-
221-237-251-307-333-337-363-367-411-425-429-439-497-503-
100500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0049.130309T1950Z-130310T0500Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS
DENTON EASTLAND ERATH
FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON
HOOD JACK JOHNSON
MCCULLOCH MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER SAN SABA
SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT
WISE YOUNG
$$
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
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horselattitudesfarm
- Category 1
- Posts: 315
- Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:55 pm
- Location: Asheville, NC (formerly from Dallas, TX)
Per the NWS discussion:
"THE DIFFICULTY IN THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING IS
THE LACK OF SYNCHRONIZATION OF THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WHICH DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MID TO LATE
EVENING. HI-RES AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO INDICATE
THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW
ZONES THROUGH 7 OR 8PM...AND MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE TO TAKE HOLD OR
EVEN DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE METROPLEX. OBVIOUSLY STORM
SCALE MODELING CANT BE TRUSTED TO THIS EXTENT...BUT IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY SOLD THAT THIS LINE WILL
BEHAVE AS THEY TYPICALLY DO IN THE SPRING. (gotta love this line) IF THE AFTERNOON STORMS
DO NOT BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A STRONG COLD POOL AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING."
Looks like a major fizzling-out might occur with this already anemic line of storms. I had already lost hope in any of these storms reaching us anyway.
However:
"CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AFTER AROUND 8 OR 9 PM AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
AS THIS FORCING ARRIVES AND ANOTHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY
SPC FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA LATER. PROVIDED AFTERNOON STORMS DO
NOT CAUSE AN ACCELERATION OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FRONT SHOULD
BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT WORTH TO COMANCHE AT
THIS TIME. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE SB CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG EVEN AFTER SUNSET OWING TO THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EXPAND AND SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH ANY
CELL THAT CAN BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HAVE FORECAST 100 POPS FOR ALL BUT THE NW ZONES FOR TONIGHT
AND EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN NORTH OF I-20 TO 1-2 INCHES SOUTH
OF I-20 WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CELL TRAINING."
NWS still seems bullish that a miracle can happen and rain will 'magically' appear out of thin air after the magical hour of 8 or 9 or so tonight
I have faith in technology and science and so will go ahead and be hopeful due to the fact they are fairly confident in their forecast, and also that the weather maps show energy still off to the west. I will keep my eyes to the Southwest then.
"THE DIFFICULTY IN THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING IS
THE LACK OF SYNCHRONIZATION OF THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WHICH DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MID TO LATE
EVENING. HI-RES AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO INDICATE
THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW
ZONES THROUGH 7 OR 8PM...AND MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE TO TAKE HOLD OR
EVEN DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE METROPLEX. OBVIOUSLY STORM
SCALE MODELING CANT BE TRUSTED TO THIS EXTENT...BUT IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY SOLD THAT THIS LINE WILL
BEHAVE AS THEY TYPICALLY DO IN THE SPRING. (gotta love this line) IF THE AFTERNOON STORMS
DO NOT BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A STRONG COLD POOL AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING."
Looks like a major fizzling-out might occur with this already anemic line of storms.
I had already lost hope in any of these storms reaching us anyway.However:
"CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AFTER AROUND 8 OR 9 PM AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
AS THIS FORCING ARRIVES AND ANOTHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY
SPC FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA LATER. PROVIDED AFTERNOON STORMS DO
NOT CAUSE AN ACCELERATION OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FRONT SHOULD
BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT WORTH TO COMANCHE AT
THIS TIME. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE SB CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG EVEN AFTER SUNSET OWING TO THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EXPAND AND SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH ANY
CELL THAT CAN BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HAVE FORECAST 100 POPS FOR ALL BUT THE NW ZONES FOR TONIGHT
AND EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN NORTH OF I-20 TO 1-2 INCHES SOUTH
OF I-20 WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CELL TRAINING."
NWS still seems bullish that a miracle can happen and rain will 'magically' appear out of thin air after the magical hour of 8 or 9 or so tonight
I have faith in technology and science and so will go ahead and be hopeful due to the fact they are fairly confident in their forecast, and also that the weather maps show energy still off to the west. I will keep my eyes to the Southwest then.
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^ It will expand substantially once it hits the higher pwats along I-35 as we have seen the line begin to consolidate on radar. Analysis show this very well along with growing lift. Dewpoints are into the 60s which shows very good moisture transport.
The fact that these storms are firing up further west than the American models had indicated is good for places like Austin.
I'm also seeing the sun pop out which probably will add to the instability. 1000 joules and 2000 in south Texas is plenty of energy for severe weather
The fact that these storms are firing up further west than the American models had indicated is good for places like Austin.
I'm also seeing the sun pop out which probably will add to the instability. 1000 joules and 2000 in south Texas is plenty of energy for severe weather
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Ewx is wondering if there will be enough of a trigger for the convection, and most likely area is the northeast. I hope we get more than a few drops! 
000
FXUS64 KEWX 092140 CCA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
CORRECTED TO FIX POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM JUST WEST OF ABILENE TO AROUND SANDERSON. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER ALONG WITH
BEST CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT JUST NORTH OF LLANO COUNTY. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TONIGHT. TIMING STILL LOOKS
LIKE LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. MOST LIKELY WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO HAVE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EITHER SIDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
ENTIRE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTHEAST. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR CWA BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE A
CHILLY MORNING MONDAY WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THE
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THEN IT WILL TRANSITION TO NEARLY
ZONAL BY MID-WEEK BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES TURNING
IT BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A DRY PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEK FROM THE COOL START MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BRINGING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF A LINE FROM ROCKSPRINGS TO HONDO TO
PEARSALL. WINDS COULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS SOUTH OF DEL RIO. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...
PRECIPITATION THIS AREA GETS. MID-SHIFT WILL BE IN BETTER SHAPE TO
ASSESS IF THERE WILL BE ANY WETTING RAIN. IF WE DO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS IS WILL BE AFTER NOON AND UNTIL AROUND 7 PM. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RETREAT TO RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 092140 CCA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
CORRECTED TO FIX POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM JUST WEST OF ABILENE TO AROUND SANDERSON. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER ALONG WITH
BEST CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT JUST NORTH OF LLANO COUNTY. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TONIGHT. TIMING STILL LOOKS
LIKE LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. MOST LIKELY WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO HAVE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EITHER SIDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
ENTIRE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTHEAST. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR CWA BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE A
CHILLY MORNING MONDAY WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THE
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THEN IT WILL TRANSITION TO NEARLY
ZONAL BY MID-WEEK BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES TURNING
IT BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A DRY PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEK FROM THE COOL START MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BRINGING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF A LINE FROM ROCKSPRINGS TO HONDO TO
PEARSALL. WINDS COULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS SOUTH OF DEL RIO. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...
PRECIPITATION THIS AREA GETS. MID-SHIFT WILL BE IN BETTER SHAPE TO
ASSESS IF THERE WILL BE ANY WETTING RAIN. IF WE DO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS IS WILL BE AFTER NOON AND UNTIL AROUND 7 PM. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RETREAT TO RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Ping pong hail in Parker county likely moving into Wise county. Cell just to the south of that could effect Weatherford and the western suburbs of Fort Worth. storms to the southwest of those is moving northeast and will likely go severe as well as they head toward the metroplex.
Radar is reflecting 2 inch an hour rainfall rates on the northern cells
Radar is reflecting 2 inch an hour rainfall rates on the northern cells
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Effective: 19:11 EST on 03-09-2013
Expires: 19:45 EST on 03-09-2013
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN KIMBLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CST
* AT 607 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 4 MILES SOUTH OF
ROOSEVELT...OR 18 MILES WEST OF JUNCTION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
A FEW VEHICLE DENTS...
MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH LLANO RIVER STATE PARK BY 630 PM CST...
CLEO AND JUNCTION BY 635 PM CST...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 430 AND 453.
...QUARTER SIZE
WIND...60-70 MPH
Instructions: A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
Target Area: Kimble
Forecast Office: NWS San Angelo (Central Texas San Angelo)
Expires: 19:45 EST on 03-09-2013
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN KIMBLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CST
* AT 607 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 4 MILES SOUTH OF
ROOSEVELT...OR 18 MILES WEST OF JUNCTION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
A FEW VEHICLE DENTS...
MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH LLANO RIVER STATE PARK BY 630 PM CST...
CLEO AND JUNCTION BY 635 PM CST...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 430 AND 453.
...QUARTER SIZE
WIND...60-70 MPH
Instructions: A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
Target Area: Kimble
Forecast Office: NWS San Angelo (Central Texas San Angelo)
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Effective: 19:20 EST on 03-09-2013
Expires: 20:00 EST on 03-09-2013
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN SABA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 700 PM CST
* AT 618 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LOHN...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF BRADY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
SOME VEHICLE DENTS...
MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
A FEW EXPOSED WINDOWS COULD CRACK OR BREAK...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROCHELLE BY 630 PM CST...
PLACID BY 635 PM CST...
US-190 NEAR THE MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA COUNTY LINE AND MERCURY BY 640
PM CST...
HALL...ELM GROVE AND MILBURN BY 645 PM CST...
SKEETERVILLE AND RICHLAND SPRINGS BY 650 PM CST...
LOCKER BY 700 PM CST...
...HALF DOLLAR SIZE
WIND...60-70 MPH
Instructions: A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
Target Area: Brown
McCulloch
San Saba
Expires: 20:00 EST on 03-09-2013
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN SABA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 700 PM CST
* AT 618 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LOHN...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF BRADY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
SOME VEHICLE DENTS...
MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
A FEW EXPOSED WINDOWS COULD CRACK OR BREAK...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROCHELLE BY 630 PM CST...
PLACID BY 635 PM CST...
US-190 NEAR THE MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA COUNTY LINE AND MERCURY BY 640
PM CST...
HALL...ELM GROVE AND MILBURN BY 645 PM CST...
SKEETERVILLE AND RICHLAND SPRINGS BY 650 PM CST...
LOCKER BY 700 PM CST...
...HALF DOLLAR SIZE
WIND...60-70 MPH
Instructions: A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
Target Area: Brown
McCulloch
San Saba
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Effective: 19:23 EST on 03-09-2013
Expires: 20:30 EST on 03-09-2013
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 730 PM CST
* AT 623 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SANGER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KRUGERVILLE AND CROSS ROADS AROUND 630 PM...
RAY ROBERTS PARK ISLE DU BOIS AND AUBREY AROUND 635 PM...
RAY ROBERTS PARK JOHNSON BRANCH AND PILOT POINT AROUND 640 PM...
GAINESVILLE AND LINDSAY AROUND 645 PM...
COLLINSVILLE AROUND 655 PM...
WHITESBORO AROUND 700 PM...
THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 469 AND 503...
I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 461 AND 466
.
Instructions: FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
Expires: 20:30 EST on 03-09-2013
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 730 PM CST
* AT 623 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SANGER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KRUGERVILLE AND CROSS ROADS AROUND 630 PM...
RAY ROBERTS PARK ISLE DU BOIS AND AUBREY AROUND 635 PM...
RAY ROBERTS PARK JOHNSON BRANCH AND PILOT POINT AROUND 640 PM...
GAINESVILLE AND LINDSAY AROUND 645 PM...
COLLINSVILLE AROUND 655 PM...
WHITESBORO AROUND 700 PM...
THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 469 AND 503...
I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 461 AND 466
.
Instructions: FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL MENARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CONCHO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 700 PM CST
* AT 625 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR US-83 NEAR THE
MENARD-CONCHO COUNTY LINE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF MENARD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
A FEW VEHICLE DENTS...
MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...
NORTHERN MENARD AND SOUTHEASTERN CONCHO COUNTIES.
...QUARTER SIZE
WIND...60-70 MPH
Instructions: A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
Target Area: Concho
Menard
Alert: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL MENARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CONCHO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 700 PM CST
* AT 625 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR US-83 NEAR THE
MENARD-CONCHO COUNTY LINE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF MENARD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
A FEW VEHICLE DENTS...
MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...
NORTHERN MENARD AND SOUTHEASTERN CONCHO COUNTIES.
...QUARTER SIZE
WIND...60-70 MPH
Instructions: A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
Target Area: Concho
Menard
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Alert: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BOSQUE COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE DALLAS DENTON
ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON
HAMILTON HOOD JOHNSON
MILLS PARKER SOMERVELL
TARRANT WISE
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ARLINGTON...BONHAM...BRIAR...
BRIDGEPORT...BURLESON...CLEBURNE...CLIFTON...COMANCHE...DALLAS...
DE LEON...DECATUR...DENISON...DENTON...DUBLIN...FLOWER MOUND...
FORT WORTH...GAINESVILLE...GLEN ROSE...GOLDTHWAITE...GRANBURY...
HAMILTON...HICO...LEWISVILLE...MERIDIAN...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
PLANO...SHERMAN...STEPHENVILLE...THE COLONY...
VALLEY MILLS AND WEATHERFORD.
Instructions:
Target Area: Bosque
Collin
Comanche
Cooke
Dallas
Denton
Erath
Fannin
Grayson
Hamilton
Hood
Johnson
Mills
Parker
Somervell
Alert: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BOSQUE COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE DALLAS DENTON
ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON
HAMILTON HOOD JOHNSON
MILLS PARKER SOMERVELL
TARRANT WISE
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ARLINGTON...BONHAM...BRIAR...
BRIDGEPORT...BURLESON...CLEBURNE...CLIFTON...COMANCHE...DALLAS...
DE LEON...DECATUR...DENISON...DENTON...DUBLIN...FLOWER MOUND...
FORT WORTH...GAINESVILLE...GLEN ROSE...GOLDTHWAITE...GRANBURY...
HAMILTON...HICO...LEWISVILLE...MERIDIAN...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
PLANO...SHERMAN...STEPHENVILLE...THE COLONY...
VALLEY MILLS AND WEATHERFORD.
Instructions:
Target Area: Bosque
Collin
Comanche
Cooke
Dallas
Denton
Erath
Fannin
Grayson
Hamilton
Hood
Johnson
Mills
Parker
Somervell
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