Texas Spring 2013

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Like that big drought buster named Don in 2011!

Oh yeah. The High Pressure Ridge of Death ( why does not the Weather Channel name High Pressure Ridges in Summer...lol..he he) that completely ate Don. That was the wildest thing I have ever seen. I was like, "Wooahh, where did it go? Did I see what I just thought I saw?" LOL

We should lobby them to name the first one this summer Wxman57.

[weatherdude1108]

Like that big drought buster named Don in 2011!

Oh yeah. The High Pressure Ridge of Death ( why does not the Weather Channel name High Pressure Ridges in Summer...lol..he he) that completely ate Don. That was the wildest thing I have ever seen. I was like, "Wooahh, where did it go? Did I see what I just thought I saw?" LOL

We should lobby them to name the first one this summer Wxman57.

That would be a GREAT idea! We need some High Pressure Ridge of Death names for those neverending Summer patterns. It would keep it interesting if anything!

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, "back at the ranch":

"A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM TUES FOR ALL OF SO. CNTL TX.

A FAST MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT INTO TUES MORNING & CREATE WINDY & GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SO. CNTL TX FROM DAWN TO THE AFTERNOON HRS ON TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-050500-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WI.Y.0003.130305T1200Z-130306T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.LLANO.BURNET.GEORGETOWN.DEL RIO.
ROCKSPRINGS.LEAKEY.KERRVILLE.BANDERA.FREDERICKSBURG.
BOERNE.BLANCO.SAN MARCOS.AUSTIN.BASTROP.GIDDINGS.
BRACKETTVILLE.UVALDE.HONDO.SAN ANTONIO.NEW BRAUNFELS.
SEGUIN.LOCKHART.LA GRANGE.EAGLE PASS.CRYSTAL CITY.
PEARSALL.PLEASANTON.FLORESVILLE.KARNES CITY.GONZALES.
CUERO.HALLETTSVILLE.CARRIZO SPRINGS
259 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING.STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT AROUND 8 AM TO 12 PM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.10 AM TO 2 PM ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR & 12 PM TO 4 PM ACROSS THE FAR S. COUNTIES.

* WINDS.NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS.LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS.PATIO FURNITURE & LAWN DECORATIONS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$"

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Meanwhile, "back at the ranch":

"A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM TUES FOR ALL OF SO. CNTL TX.

A FAST MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT INTO TUES MORNING & CREATE WINDY & GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SO. CNTL TX FROM DAWN TO THE AFTERNOON HRS ON TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-050500-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WI.Y.0003.130305T1200Z-130306T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.LLANO.BURNET.GEORGETOWN.DEL RIO.
ROCKSPRINGS.LEAKEY.KERRVILLE.BANDERA.FREDERICKSBURG.
BOERNE.BLANCO.SAN MARCOS.AUSTIN.BASTROP.GIDDINGS.
BRACKETTVILLE.UVALDE.HONDO.SAN ANTONIO.NEW BRAUNFELS.
SEGUIN.LOCKHART.LA GRANGE.EAGLE PASS.CRYSTAL CITY.
PEARSALL.PLEASANTON.FLORESVILLE.KARNES CITY.GONZALES.
CUERO.HALLETTSVILLE.CARRIZO SPRINGS
259 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING.STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT AROUND 8 AM TO 12 PM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.10 AM TO 2 PM ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR & 12 PM TO 4 PM ACROSS THE FAR S. COUNTIES.

* WINDS.NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS.LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS.PATIO FURNITURE & LAWN DECORATIONS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$"

I'm glad today was my garbage day in my neighborhood. Last week some neighborhoods looked like landfills thanks to our trash and recyclable carts being blown over by the winds which gusted near 65 mph. And these carts are not cheap, light weight plastic too. On the flip side, it looks like my outfield playing son will have to play with gusty winds to his back when normally around here they blow right into his face. Should be some interesting attempts at some catches for sure.

[Portastorm]

It is very evident to me who ordered today's weather ... a private-sector tropical meteorologist who resides in Houston who enjoys cycling. It is 89 degrees here in Austin at 3:30 pm ... 90 degrees in Llano.

Come on, man ... isn't this a little too early for this stuff?!

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, "back at the ranch":

"A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM TUES FOR ALL OF SO. CNTL TX.

A FAST MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT INTO TUES MORNING & CREATE WINDY & GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SO. CNTL TX FROM DAWN TO THE AFTERNOON HRS ON TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-050500-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WI.Y.0003.130305T1200Z-130306T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.LLANO.BURNET.GEORGETOWN.DEL RIO.
ROCKSPRINGS.LEAKEY.KERRVILLE.BANDERA.FREDERICKSBURG.
BOERNE.BLANCO.SAN MARCOS.AUSTIN.BASTROP.GIDDINGS.
BRACKETTVILLE.UVALDE.HONDO.SAN ANTONIO.NEW BRAUNFELS.
SEGUIN.LOCKHART.LA GRANGE.EAGLE PASS.CRYSTAL CITY.
PEARSALL.PLEASANTON.FLORESVILLE.KARNES CITY.GONZALES.
CUERO.HALLETTSVILLE.CARRIZO SPRINGS
259 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING.STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT AROUND 8 AM TO 12 PM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.10 AM TO 2 PM ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR & 12 PM TO 4 PM ACROSS THE FAR S. COUNTIES.

* WINDS.NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS.LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS.PATIO FURNITURE & LAWN DECORATIONS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$"

I'm glad today was my garbage day in my neighborhood. Last week some neighborhoods looked like landfills thanks to our trash and recyclable carts being blown over by the winds which gusted near 65 mph. And these carts are not cheap, light weight plastic too. On the flip side, it looks like my outfield playing son will have to play with gusty winds to his back when normally around here they blow right into his face. Should be some interesting attempts at some catches for sure.

Oh yeah, last Monday during the "winds of change," it was my trash day. I think I lost my plastic garbage can (bins the city provides)(?)! There was a can across the street in front of the neighbor's truck, but not certain. There was another in front of his house, and the closest can was caddy corner to my house. I picked it up, assuming it MIGHT be mine(?). Maybe another neighbor picked up mine. The wind was nuts. Didn't see any shingles around the house thankfully!

Anyway, glad trash day is today rather than tomorrow.

[weatherdude1108]

It is very evident to me who ordered today's weather ... a private-sector tropical meteorologist who resides in Houston who enjoys cycling. It is 89 degrees here in Austin at 3:30 pm ... 90 degrees in Llano.

Come on, man ... isn't this a little too early for this stuff?!

YEP

[wxman57]

It is very evident to me who ordered today's weather ... a private-sector tropical meteorologist who resides in Houston who enjoys cycling. It is 89 degrees here in Austin at 3:30 pm ... 90 degrees in Llano.

Come on, man ... isn't this a little too early for this stuff?!

It's only 79-80 in Houston. Still a bit cool...

12Z GFS doesn't have a single 70-deg day in Houston between the 11th-20th of March.

[Rgv20]

It is very evident to me who ordered today's weather ... a private-sector tropical meteorologist who resides in Houston who enjoys cycling. It is 89 degrees here in Austin at 3:30 pm ... 90 degrees in Llano.

Come on, man ... isn't this a little too early for this stuff?!

Had a high of 95F at my back yard, it was a really dry heat tho so it did not feel as bad. Hopefully we can get some rain soon! Things are really dry down here!

[dhweather]

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL...WITH MUCAPES AROUND 700-900 J/KG
FORECASTED BY THE GFS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT
WITH SHEAR VECTORS INITIALLY ALMOST PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...SOME DISCRETE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
INSTABILITY WERE TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WE COULD SEE
SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN THE 55 KNOT 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES.

PROGRESSING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. THE LATEST FORECASTED TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND THERE SHOULD BE BETTER
LIFT OVER THE CWA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THE FRONT/PRECIP SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD


oh please, please please!!!!

[dhweather]

Not looking too good to me, looks like the storm track goes up into Kansas/Nebraska. I expect the infamous linear thin line of thunderstorms dropping generally between .25 and .4 inches of rain. Austin and southward probably gets dry slotted again.

[South Texas Storms]

Not looking too good to me, looks like the storm track goes up into Kansas/Nebraska. I expect the infamous linear thin line of thunderstorms dropping generally between .25 and .4 inches of rain. Austin and southward probably gets dry slotted again.

It's looking great to me. GFS has been consistent in showing over .50 inch of rain from SA to Dallas.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Not looking too good to me, looks like the storm track goes up into Kansas/Nebraska. I expect the infamous linear thin line of thunderstorms dropping generally between .25 and .4 inches of rain. Austin and southward probably gets dry slotted again.

I think the infamous 'Tail-end' syndrome again will win out the further south you go. Weather patterns in South Texas kinda reminds me when I go tubing in the San Marcus and get stuck in one of those stagnant mossy pools off to the side of the clearer, rapidly flowing water: I guess a kind-of analogy to being farther away from the jet stream

[Kludge]

Not looking too good to me, looks like the storm track goes up into Kansas/Nebraska. I expect the infamous linear thin line of thunderstorms dropping generally between .25 and .4 inches of rain. Austin and southward probably gets dry slotted again.

I think the infamous 'Tail-end' syndrome again will win out the further south you go. Weather patterns in South Texas kinda reminds me when I go tubing in the San Marcus and get stuck in one of those stagnant mossy pools off to the side of the clearer, rapidly flowing water: I guess a kind-of analogy to being farther away from the jet stream

Trying to be optimistic here...
It seems in previous weeks the models would show these storms, at 8-10 days out while they were out over the unsampled Pacific, to have significant and widespread rain over Texas. Then, as they came ashore and got sampled with RAOBs, they showed dryer and dryer with each run...which ultimately verified. For the one coming this weekend, though, it seems the models are showing wetter for us as they get more sampling data.

I gotta hope. 1.1" here in February, and March starting off looking about the same.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Trying to be optimistic here...
It seems in previous weeks the models would show these storms, at 8-10 days out while they were out over the unsampled Pacific, to have significant and widespread rain over Texas. Then, as they came ashore and got sampled with RAOBs, they showed dryer and dryer with each run...which ultimately verified. For the one coming this weekend, though, it seems the models are showing wetter for us as they get more sampling data.

I gotta hope. 1.1" here in February, and March starting off looking about the same.

I hope for the best. Would be kinda nice to see a bump up in Lake Travis levels like last spring.

[Ntxw]

I am very optimistic about a good line of thunderstorms this weekend (yes even into Austin/San Antonio Sunday). Good news is that the energy is not all coming through at once so lagging vorticity may provide a longer duration of lift. The European has been the better model this March and it paints a good shot of rain for the I-35 corridor with the coming system compared to it's American counterparts. It may not be a drench-er by any means but I'm 70% confident most areas will see a good dose of rain with the coming cold front.

[dhweather]

I am very optimistic about a good line of thunderstorms this weekend (yes even into Austin/San Antonio Sunday). Good news is that the energy is not all coming through at once so lagging vorticity may provide a longer duration of lift. The European has been the better model this March and it paints a good shot of rain for the I-35 corridor with the coming system compared to it's American counterparts. It may not be a drench-er by any means but I'm 70% confident most areas will see a good dose of rain with the coming cold front.

I sure hope so. Everyone needs the rain.

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD this morning:

850 MB DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12C ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN PWATS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES...THUS OUR CONFIDENCE IN A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES IS MODERATELY HIGH.


This would be great! I need to look at the models and see what's going on myself.

[weatherdude1108]

Nice "site for sore eyes" in this discussion. But I'm at the point where I'll believe it when I see it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 AM CST THU MAR 7 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST THU MAR 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
"...THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SPLIT FEATURE WITH THIS TROUGH AS ONE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GIVEN A LONGER PERIOD OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS THIS REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE
MODELS. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT IS PROMISING TO NOTE HOW THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS RECENT MODEL TRENDS.[/color] FOR NOW...WE/LL
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OUT WEST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SEVERE BEING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. [color=#0000FF]RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
THIS LINE WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO WORK IT/S WAY EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 ON SUNDAY. IF SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT... RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED. ..."

[weatherdude1108]

Trying to be optimistic here...
It seems in previous weeks the models would show these storms, at 8-10 days out while they were out over the unsampled Pacific, to have significant and widespread rain over Texas. Then, as they came ashore and got sampled with RAOBs, they showed dryer and dryer with each run...which ultimately verified. For the one coming this weekend, though, it seems the models are showing wetter for us as they get more sampling data.

I gotta hope. 1.1" here in February, and March starting off looking about the same.

I hope for the best. Would be kinda nice to see a bump up in Lake Travis levels like last spring.

Interesting about the sampling! Looks like the sampling team needs to wait until they get adequate sampling data for more accurate forecasts IMO.