Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Texas Snowman]

Hey wxman57, look.

HOUSTON BUSH PTCLDY 32 at 7a.m.

Wow...a March freeze in the Heat Miser's backyard!

[gboudx]

I guess the only thing left is figuring out when its safe to start my garden where I'll grow basil, tomatoes(Roma and Cherry) and bell peppers. I'll probably wait another 3 weeks just to be safe.

[Ntxw]

I guess the only thing left is figuring out when its safe to start my garden where I'll grow basil, tomatoes(Roma and Cherry) and bell peppers. I'll probably wait another 3 weeks just to be safe.

This is a very good idea. We will not have the unusual early spring like last year. The models do not suggest any kind of unusual warmth and actually quite cool for the next 2 weeks compared to averages and a light frost or freeze cannot be discounted with the -NAO/-EPO/-AO. The arctic regions remain well below normal so I would not be the least bit surprised if a late cold snap appears even in April.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I was going to write the same thing as Ntxw said. While I'm not here to say it's going to snow or ice in Dallas or Waco or Austin ... I do think, based on teleconnections and the operational models, that the next 2-3 weeks look potentially cold enough that a freeze in north Texas isn't out of the realm of possibilities.

Down here, I'm just hoping for some rainfall.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yeah, I was going to write the same thing as Ntxw said. While I'm not here to say it's going to snow or ice in Dallas or Waco or Austin ... I do think, based on teleconnections and the operational models, that the next 2-3 weeks look potentially cold enough that a freeze in north Texas isn't out of the realm of possibilities.

Down here, I'm just hoping for some rainfall.

Forecast low for tonight is 30 for the inner city areas, upper 20's for the outline areas of DFW.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I was wondering (not too hard) where our cold would head to.

[Texas Snowman]

Two tweets from Joe Bastardi that - if they verify - will give some of us lots of smiles. And leave one of us a little bit grumpy!

@BigJoeBastardi: While US is still in warm phase of flip of pdo/amo relationship, europe, far east, alaskan winters are start of whats coming next 20-30 yrs.

@BigJoeBastardi: The more consistent cold winters from 1960-1985 are still 5-10 yrs away for US..but not for far east and as Europe has found out, them.

[Portastorm]

For entertainment purposes only: the 12z GFS at 336 hours has a Texas snowstorm, including laying down several inches of snow in the Hill Country and Austin metropolitan areas.

[Portastorm]

Well, the 18z GFS didn't include so much fun. But it should be noted that the 12z Euro run suggest a major plunge of cold, Polar air at 240 hours into Texas.

And if y'all are wondering why I'm still here ... ... I promised I'd be the last one to leave and turn out the lights.

[Longhornmaniac8]

It's nice to have you back, Porta. We'd all really worried you'd been converted to the dark side.

[amawea]

Here is an interesting little article from Accuweather. The very last paragraph stated by Bernie Rayno says it all.
There is also a video at the link.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... ng/6531926
How Weather Forecast Bust
Forecasting is an ever-changing process because the atmosphere is so dynamic. A meteorologist might have a hundred reasons for forecasting a certain event, but if one of those reasons is wrong, the forecast will bust.

"Think of it like a set of dominos," AccuWeather Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "You have one domino here, you have the 10,000th one there, and at the end is your pot of gold, that is, the correct forecast. Well, in order to get to there, every domino better be in the right spot and be lined up perfectly so everything falls to get the correct assessment."

With sophisticated computer models, forecasters can get an idea about the storms coming to the United States a week to 10 days in advance. The models' accuracy is weakened by sparse current weather data into the models.

"A lot of our storms originate out in the Pacific Ocean," AccuWeather meteorologist Mark Mancuso said. "In the Pacific Ocean, we have very little data coming from observation spots. There's a few islands out there that might send up a weather balloon. You might get a report here or there about what the profile of the atmosphere is like but a lot of the forecasting done with our models initially is an estimation using satellite data.

[There is] a lot of estimation and very little [actual] data. Once the systems get on land, you get a lot more data and then the models, they can do a lot better job on the forecast. You can get a lot of timing differences, intensity differences, with these storm systems."

If you put garbage into the models, you get a garbage forecast out. Forecasting is more than just interpreting models. It is an understanding of the atmosphere in the language of physics and mathematics.

"I think sometimes as meteorologists, since we have the models that do all the math and physics for us, you lose sight of that and we tend to trust them too much," Rayno said. "I believe a lot of the busted forecasts that we see, I say 70-80% is because we are buying the models lock, stock and barrel and forgetting the meteorology."

[wxman57]

I guess the only thing left is figuring out when its safe to start my garden where I'll grow basil, tomatoes(Roma and Cherry) and bell peppers. I'll probably wait another 3 weeks just to be safe.

Waiting would not be wise at all, as tomatoes require cool (below 72F) nighttime lows to set fruit. If you wait much longer then the plants won't mature in time to produce much fruit. Bell peppers don't have any such nighttime chill requirements.

[weatherdude1108]

Here is an interesting little article from Accuweather. The very last paragraph stated by Bernie Rayno says it all.
There is also a video at the link.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... ng/6531926
How Weather Forecast Bust
Forecasting is an ever-changing process because the atmosphere is so dynamic. A meteorologist might have a hundred reasons for forecasting a certain event, but if one of those reasons is wrong, the forecast will bust.

"Think of it like a set of dominos," AccuWeather Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "You have one domino here, you have the 10,000th one there, and at the end is your pot of gold, that is, the correct forecast. Well, in order to get to there, every domino better be in the right spot and be lined up perfectly so everything falls to get the correct assessment."

With sophisticated computer models, forecasters can get an idea about the storms coming to the United States a week to 10 days in advance. The models' accuracy is weakened by sparse current weather data into the models.

"A lot of our storms originate out in the Pacific Ocean," AccuWeather meteorologist Mark Mancuso said. "In the Pacific Ocean, we have very little data coming from observation spots. There's a few islands out there that might send up a weather balloon. You might get a report here or there about what the profile of the atmosphere is like but a lot of the forecasting done with our models initially is an estimation using satellite data.

[There is] a lot of estimation and very little [actual] data. Once the systems get on land, you get a lot more data and then the models, they can do a lot better job on the forecast. You can get a lot of timing differences, intensity differences, with these storm systems."

If you put garbage into the models, you get a garbage forecast out. Forecasting is more than just interpreting models. It is an understanding of the atmosphere in the language of physics and mathematics.

"I think sometimes as meteorologists, since we have the models that do all the math and physics for us, you lose sight of that and we tend to trust them too much," Rayno said. "I believe a lot of the busted forecasts that we see, I say 70-80% is because we are buying the models lock, stock and barrel and forgetting the meteorology."

Nice read! That tends to be my (and a bunch of other people's) problem. I put too much faith in the models instead of figuring out the physics and math (which I am NOT good at doing, especially the math part). A lot of "dominoes" and "garbage" that effect their outcomes, which is easily forgotten. Great analogies! Thanks for the article!

[CaptinCrunch]

Well folks it's looks as Winter is in the record books for 2012/2013, I know we will see a few more chilly night in the mid 30's but as we spring forward this weekend the days become longer and the yard becomes greener.

It's been fun but I was kind of disappointed in Winter this year. Hopefully we see a EL NINO winter next year and a better chance of some good old fashion late 70's winter storms. Till then everyone take care and as I shift over to another Severe Weather Season chase, keep an eye to the sky.

Happy Trails to all.

[Portastorm]

Saw an interesting factoid from KVUE's Mark Murray, lead meteorologist from the ABC affiliate here in Austin. He said that Austin's winter of '12-'13 ranks # 7 on the list of warmest winters. 4 of the top 10 are from the last 20 years. Records date back to 1854.

[Texas Snowman]

Lots of Texas peeps on the road today heading for New Mexico and Colorado spring break skiing vacations.

26" of new snow in Arizona, 17" of new snow at Taos Ski Valley in New Mexico, and near blizzard conditions on I-25 along the Colorado Front Range.

Wish we were going skiing this year!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Officially 30 degrees here in Denison for the overnight low.

Forecast low of 34 degrees tonight.

May be the last flirtation with the freezing mark until next fall.

[Texas Snowman]

I believe it was twenty years ago today that the 93 Superstorm or "Blizzard of '93" was roaring through the SE and up the East Coast. It was one of the biggest snowstorms in U.S. history.

Snow missed us here in Denison but I think it started snowing around Tyler and Texarkana in East Texas. Then it just got worse and worse to the east as the low bombed out in the Gulf. Southern cities like Birmingham, Atlanta, and Charlotte just got buried by one to two feet of snow.

Even without the snow, I remember very well the blue norther associated with the storm as it passed through the Red River Valley. Winds were HOWLING behind the front at 25-35 mph, temps were below freezing the next morning, and Lake Texoma looked like the Gulf of Mexico during a hurricane.

[Portastorm]

I believe it was twenty years ago today that the 93 Superstorm or "Blizzard of '93" was roaring through the SE and up the East Coast. It was one of the biggest snowstorms in U.S. history.

Snow missed us here in Denison but I think it started snowing around Tyler and Texarkana in East Texas. Then it just got worse and worse to the east as the low bombed out in the Gulf. Southern cities like Birmingham, Atlanta, and Charlotte just got buried by one to two feet of snow.

Even without the snow, I remember very well the blue norther associated with the storm as it passed through the Red River Valley. Winds were HOWLING behind the front at 25-35 mph, temps were below freezing the next morning, and Lake Texoma looked like the Gulf of Mexico during a hurricane.

Yep, I remember that one as well. It dropped temps here in Austin some 25 degrees. We had highs in the low 70s prior to frontal passage and then spent several days with highs near 50 and lows at or below freezing ... which for Austin in mid March was unusually cold. Also had some good thunderstorms with the front passing.

[pwrdog]

Officially 30 degrees here in Denison for the overnight low.

Forecast low of 34 degrees tonight.

May be the last flirtation with the freezing mark until next fall.

I have had a freeze on 8 of the first 14 days of March just 60 miles north of Houston.

Conroe, just 20 miles north of Houston, has had a freeze 7 of the first 14 days of March and 9 mornings in the 30's.

We had only 4 freezes in Feb.
Jan we had 9 freezes.

In other words, it's been a chilly March so far after two very warm March's in 2012 and 2011..