Texas Winter 2012-2013

[wxman57]

No, I'm not deviating from my stance that models aren't very good beyond 3-4 days, but the 12Z GFS says no rain in the next week.

http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/7884/20130228122106pm.png

Euro is similar, indicating only a little light rain for central TX over the next 10 days. I think the models are correct in that aspect. It's hard to squeeze rain out of dry air. I've been thinking about the general flow pattern across TX for the past few years. As has been noted, it's been more SSW-SW rather than SE-SSE, resulting in drier conditions. Over the past 2 years, the Bermuda High has been stronger than normal, ridging farther west across the Gulf and into Texas. In addition, instability across much of the tropics, including the Gulf (and TX) has been down. The two are likely related, leading to the dry conditions across at least central TX.

Latest Euro forecast is for more of the same this summer - stronger Bermuda High than normal, though not as strong as 2012.

[somethingfunny]

If we have a dry month of March, we're in big trouble for the summer. April and May are the wettest months normally, but March sets the tone for spring storm season.

[South Texas Storms]

No, I'm not deviating from my stance that models aren't very good beyond 3-4 days, but the 12Z GFS says no rain in the next week.

http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/7884/20130228122106pm.png

Man, I don't think I have ever read an optimistic (or even neutral) post from you about our weather. It's always negative. Texas is not becoming a desert. Actually, average annual rainfall across our state has increased in the last 100 years or so. Here is a good link on rainfall patterns in Texas: http://doublehelixranch.com/FlyGapRainTrends.html


The Euro and GFS both show a storm system affecting Texas in about 10 days bringing us our next rain chance.

[dhweather]

If we have a dry month of March, we're in big trouble for the summer. April and May are the wettest months normally, but March sets the tone for spring storm season.

Get ready for trouble.

As wxman57 noted, it's looking like we will again be cursed with prevailing winds out of the SSW, resulting in abnormally warm and dry conditions. Of course, the argument can be made that this is the new normal - drought.

[dhweather]

No, I'm not deviating from my stance that models aren't very good beyond 3-4 days, but the 12Z GFS says no rain in the next week.

http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/7884/20130228122106pm.png

Man, I don't think I have ever read an optimistic (or even neutral) post from you about our weather. It's always negative. Texas is not becoming a desert. Actually, average annual rainfall across our state has increased in the last 100 years or so. Here is a good link on rainfall patterns in Texas: http://doublehelixranch.com/FlyGapRainTrends.html


The Euro and GFS both show a storm system affecting Texas in about 10 days bringing us our next rain chance.

If there's something to be optimistic about, you'll hear about it from me. I'm being realistic. Fact is, long term, we've been in drought for most of the last six years. I look at the CPC page pretty often, and Texas is just about always a red state, and I'm not talking politics. I've been in San Antonio and seen epic amounts of losses in agriculture, large numbers of trees dead. Normally waterfront property in Austin is now a dry lake bed.

[Ntxw]

I do not see the coming of La Nina within the foreseeable future. While this will not fix the drought it will likely not make it much worse than what it is now and definitely not 2011 when a strong Nina was present. A SW wind can provide moisture if the Epac works with us, that is the savior, but I wouldn't count on that just yet.

If you're looking for severe weather come March look to the gulf. Late Feb warmth and gulf temps correlate well with that and it's not as warm as the previous two years so I don't think March will be that active in that department. It's actually cool in the western and northern gulf.

[dhweather]

Here is a good link on rainfall patterns in Texas: http://doublehelixranch.com/FlyGapRainTrends.html

Thanks for this link - that's a really good read. I recommend this to anyone reading this forum - take a few minutes and read it. The author did a fantastic job documenting everything.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm pretty sure folks thought Texas was becoming a desert in the 1930s and the 1950s.

Didn't happen. Each time, despite severe and crippling drought for several years, the rains eventually returned again.

In fact, in my neck of the woods, Lake Texoma's lowest level ever recorded was 599.94’ on March 20, 1957. That same year it flooded and crested above the 640.00 emergency spillway for the first time. That's only happened two other times since the lake was impounded (1990 and 2007).

The late great weatherman Harold Taft once said that in Texas, the next drought begins as soon as the last flood ends.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Well, after spending the last 5 hours at my son's track meet, I am joining the dark side. Bring on summer!!!

[wxman57]

Well, after spending the last 5 hours at my son's track meet, I am joining the dark side. Bring on summer!!!

Good, good! Give in to the dark side! It's now March. Time to stop talking about freezing temps or snow in Texas. Trees are leafing out, azaleas are blooming all across Houston. Spring/summer will be here shortly.

00Z Euro takes an upper low across northern NM then NE into the Plains around the 10th. Snow band north of Texas into the Central and Northern Plains. Squall line extending southward through Texas around the 10th could drop some significant rain.

[dhweather]

Well, after spending the last 5 hours at my son's track meet, I am joining the dark side. Bring on summer!!!

Good, good! Give in to the dark side! It's now March. Time to stop talking about freezing temps or snow in Texas. Trees are leafing out, azaleas are blooming all across Houston. Spring/summer will be here shortly.

00Z Euro takes an upper low across northern NM then NE into the Plains around the 10th. Snow band north of Texas into the Central and Northern Plains. Squall line extending southward through Texas around the 10th could drop some significant rain.

How much? I think we can all agree that we REALLY need a lot of rain.

[Portastorm]

IMPORTANT!


Actually, this is probably a good time to let everyone know that today, March 1st, is considered the beginning of meteorological "Spring." I would respectfully suggest that we began to move our discussions over to the Texas Spring thread (linked below).

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=114601

If you want to discuss wintry impacts of system in Texas, and I do think that could easily still happen for places along the Red River and in Amarillo/Lubbock areas, this is still a good thread to do it in. I will lock this thread on April 1st.

[utweather]

Well, after spending the last 5 hours at my son's track meet, I am joining the dark side. Bring on summer!!!

Good, good! Give in to the dark side! It's now March. Time to stop talking about freezing temps or snow in Texas. Trees are leafing out, azaleas are blooming all across Houston. Spring/summer will be here shortly.

00Z Euro takes an upper low across northern NM then NE into the Plains around the 10th. Snow band north of Texas into the Central and Northern Plains. Squall line extending southward through Texas around the 10th could drop some significant rain.

How much? I think we can all agree that we REALLY need a lot of rain.

Not to mention the higher temperatures increasing the evaporation rate of what does fall. Its a vicious cycle of denial.

[Kennethb]

While not exactly Texas weather, but did anyone notice the NAM trying to put a 1100+ high over Greenland?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... precip.gif

[Ntxw]

While not exactly Texas weather, but did anyone notice the NAM trying to put a 1100+ high over Greenland?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... precip.gif

I mentioned it a few pages ago. It's interesting because the official world record is 1083 or 1085 (depending on method) in Siberia/Mongolia. But then again it is the NAM, it would obliterate the record.

[Kennethb]

While not exactly Texas weather, but did anyone notice the NAM trying to put a 1100+ high over Greenland?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... precip.gif

I mentioned it a few pages ago. It's interesting because the official world record is 1083 or 1085 (depending on method) in Siberia/Mongolia. But then again it is the NAM, it would obliterate the record.

Thanks. I knew I had seen it noted in one of these threads. I noticed the shape of the high a times almost shaped like Greenland. Not sure if or why Greenland might have any impact on the high.

Shiver just to think about one of those sliding down out of Canada into the Plains.

[hriverajr]

That High just did not look right..lol

[somethingfunny]

I like the NAM for our local North Texas weather...and it's not good for much outside of Texas.

[amawea]

Hey wxman57, look.

HOUSTON BUSH PTCLDY 32 at 7a.m.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

32.4 at my house, does that equate to freezing?