Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

I'm not expecting any wintry precip Sunday or Monday. I doubt we see much precip at all, there's just no moisture to work with. There's a reason it's so rare to get snow this far south, so many things have to be just right for it to happen.

Your local NWSFO disagrees with you. Looks like 30-40% POPS areawide with a chance of wintry precip as wraparound moisture on Monday afternoon in the northern areas. They also mention a low track further south could change everything.

[Portastorm]

I'm excited for our friends in the South Plains and Panhandle as near blizzard conditions will be taking place Sunday evening into Monday. Winter Storm Watches have already been hoisted for the entire Panhandle. A further south track of the low and Lubbock may be much more "in the mix."

[wxman57]

I'm excited for our friends in the South Plains and Panhandle as near blizzard conditions will be taking place Sunday evening into Monday. Winter Storm Watches have already been hoisted for the entire Panhandle. A further south track of the low and Lubbock may be much more "in the mix."

Just shut down my laptop as we're heading to Pappadeaux's for dinner. Didn't look at the 12Z Euro snow predictions. E-wall 12Z euro looks about the same as the 00Z. Will do so when we return in a few hours. 12Z GFS had snow down to the Red River. Not much change there.

[dhweather]

I'm not expecting any wintry precip Sunday or Monday. I doubt we see much precip at all, there's just no moisture to work with. There's a reason it's so rare to get snow this far south, so many things have to be just right for it to happen.

Your local NWSFO disagrees with you. Looks like 30-40% POPS areawide with a chance of wintry precip as wraparound moisture on Monday afternoon in the northern areas. They also mention a low track further south could change everything.

That's the same group I was complaining about Wednesday running a 60-70% chance Wednesday afternoon and night. We got 0.00" of rain. We'll see, but I'm not optimistic about chances for precip with this.

[Dencolo]

I'm excited for our friends in the South Plains and Panhandle as near blizzard conditions will be taking place Sunday evening into Monday. Winter Storm Watches have already been hoisted for the entire Panhandle. A further south track of the low and Lubbock may be much more "in the mix."

Just shut down my laptop as we're heading to Pappadeaux's for dinner. Didn't look at the 12Z Euro snow predictions. E-wall 12Z euro looks about the same as the 00Z. Will do so when we return in a few hours. 12Z GFS had snow down to the Red River. Not much change there.

Wwman57, if you want to include the map through Denver (which previous maps have done, just started the timing a little late on snow), that would be awesome. Yes, I know it's the Texas thread, but the NAM is giving us upwards of a foot and I'm curious as to the extend of the snow.

But to add in some Texas discussion, it's likely going to take some heavy snowfall south of the Red River to get accumulations. Main reason is the NWS is forecasting highs near 70 the day before the snow. I know in Denver when we get our April snow, if highs are near 70 and sunny the day before, snow melts fast upon contact unless snowfall rates are high. Good news is that between high temps tomorrow and surface temps at or above freezing, roads may be okay even if the Dallas area gets some snow.

Edit: I mean south of the Red River closer to the Dallas area.

Edit2: Man, I miss Pappadeaux's!

[Dean4Storms]

12zECM 500mb Vort further south than GFS...

http://vine.co/v/bgM1qHjjizA

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I'm not expecting any wintry precip Sunday or Monday. I doubt we see much precip at all, there's just no moisture to work with. There's a reason it's so rare to get snow this far south, so many things have to be just right for it to happen.

Your local NWSFO disagrees with you. Looks like 30-40% POPS areawide with a chance of wintry precip as wraparound moisture on Monday afternoon in the northern areas. They also mention a low track further south could change everything.

I NEVER buy into wraparound precip for DFW. Almost always, atmosphere is scoured and surface layer is too dry for precip. Just one novice's worthless opinion.

[Portastorm]

The cynicism and negativity from you Metroplexers ... come on, gang!

Actually I can understand how a long-term drought and unfullfilled opportunities this winter season can lead one to that frame of mind. My earlier posts were merely reporting what the local NWSFO was saying. Besides, if anyone has a "right" to be negative and cynical about the weather it's folks in Austin and San Antonio, and especially the Del Rio area. You at least had snow earlier this winter, we had squat. We get dry slotted every fropa or squall lines fall apart when they approach the south I-35 corridor. And whlie we have it bad here it is even worse out west of San Antonio. But enough of my whining.

Back to this next system ... I still think y'all have a decent shot at seeing some sleet or snow. Probably not much if any accumulation but it may fall. I think the track of the low is going to sink a bit further south before all is said and done, maybe going west to east just south of the Red River.

[amawea]

The cynicism and negativity from you Metroplexers ... come on, gang!

Actually I can understand how a long-term drought and unfullfilled opportunities this winter season can lead one to that frame of mind. My earlier posts were merely reporting what the local NWSFO was saying. Besides, if anyone has a "right" to be negative and cynical about the weather it's folks in Austin and San Antonio, and especially the Del Rio area. You at least had snow earlier this winter, we had squat. We get dry slotted every fropa or squall lines fall apart when they approach the south I-35 corridor. And whlie we have it bad here it is even worse out west of San Antonio. But enough of my whining.

Back to this next system ... I still think y'all have a decent shot at seeing some sleet or snow. Probably not much if any accumulation but it may fall. I think the track of the low is going to sink a bit further south before all is said and done, maybe going west to east just south of the Red River.

I agree with your track Portastorm, and here's why. We have had colder temps than predicted here and to our south, which means stronger blocking to our north as the cold has came down and not by an upper low creating it's own cold. This cold is from the north and I feel it may send the low on a track further south. (Heavy cold air to it's north). Of course this is just the opinion of an old man basing his thoughts on old meteorolgy ideas. edited to add: by to our north, I mean here in north Arkansas, but it all amounts to a more southern track.

[Ntxw]

Wrap around moisture and ejection of low depends on many factors. Majority of storms do not have much wrap around simply because we don't get many deep systems that cuts off (March 2010, and December 2009 are the other two in the last few years). Only a handful of them actually occur in a number of years in winter. Most are open troughs that go neutral tilt. At 5h this system will provide plenty of wrap around, the other ingredient needed is the gulf to open up for moisture transport.

This is going to be a very different system than we are used to, deep cut offs like this is rare for our region (more common over the coasts and far north). Ejection is highly dependent on how deep a trough we get. I agree with you Portastorm the cynicism this year has been more than needed. We live in the deep south, we know the odds are low don't need to rehash it every time imo. Just talking about the possibilities, if it doesn't add to the conversation or pointing out meteorological data lets try to keep it at a minimum.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro definitely shifted north and west with the precip in Texas. Nothing in Dallas-Ft. Worth now. Trace almost south to Abilene. Core of 12-14" in NW Oklahoma just east of the panhandle extending north into south-central Kansas.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 there was a poster from Denver that asked if you could post snow maps from the Euro for them, maybe in that thread if possible.

Here's a wide look at the big picture, shortwave is the swirl of clouds around Nevada.

[dhweather]

I'm not expecting any wintry precip Sunday or Monday. I doubt we see much precip at all, there's just no moisture to work with. There's a reason it's so rare to get snow this far south, so many things have to be just right for it to happen.

Your local NWSFO disagrees with you. Looks like 30-40% POPS areawide with a chance of wintry precip as wraparound moisture on Monday afternoon in the northern areas. They also mention a low track further south could change everything.

I NEVER buy into wraparound precip for DFW. Almost always, atmosphere is scoured and surface layer is too dry for precip. Just one novice's worthless opinion.

Your opinion isn't worthless! You are actually speaking from experience, which most of the time, is exactly as you describe. We don't get wraparound very often, at the moisture usually is scoured out quickly. That's just the way it is.

[dhweather]

The cynicism and negativity from you Metroplexers ... come on, gang!

Actually I can understand how a long-term drought and unfullfilled opportunities this winter season can lead one to that frame of mind. My earlier posts were merely reporting what the local NWSFO was saying. Besides, if anyone has a "right" to be negative and cynical about the weather it's folks in Austin and San Antonio, and especially the Del Rio area. You at least had snow earlier this winter, we had squat. We get dry slotted every fropa or squall lines fall apart when they approach the south I-35 corridor. And whlie we have it bad here it is even worse out west of San Antonio. But enough of my whining.

Back to this next system ... I still think y'all have a decent shot at seeing some sleet or snow. Probably not much if any accumulation but it may fall. I think the track of the low is going to sink a bit further south before all is said and done, maybe going west to east just south of the Red River.

I have no idea how you guys basically along and south of Austin haven't gone just flat out nuts! It's just sad how much extremely severe drought you guys have had for roughly a decade. And there's no end in sight - NONE. We at least get some rain, but it seems like you guys never do.

That tropical system that came into extreme south texas during the brutal 2011 summer - TS Don I think? - the freaking the evaporated as soon as it hit the brutally dry air. You sit back and think about that - even though it was weak, a tropical system evaporated like a nuke went off - that one event tells the story of the last decade. It's heartbreaking.

[Ntxw]

That tropical system that came into extreme south texas during the brutal 2011 summer - TS Don I think? - the freaking the evaporated as soon as it hit the brutally dry air. You sit back and think about that - even though it was weak, a tropical system evaporated like a nuke went off - that one event tells the story of the last decade. It's heartbreaking.

What's so strange about a tropical storm (weak at that) getting choked by dry air? They get stripped in the mid ocean all the time. That was more sensationalism by people and media to put a hyperbole for the drought. That big high was going to kill anything that plowed into it. It's not like every tropical feed has been killed off by the dry air since.

[Ntxw]

GFS has some snow for Lubbock to Amarillo and wraparound moisture for some light snow along the Red River counties, maybe 2 rows.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Haven't gotten a chance to look at any of the forecasts or models this evening and about to head out the door. What are things looking like for north/north east wichita county?

[dhweather]

It didn't just get choked - it literally evaporated. I've watched the tropics for a long, long time, and I don't recall seeing one do that, at least not as quickly as that one did. Dry air has crippled many a tropical system, but to just simply disappear from satellite in a few frames, that's not common.

[Ntxw]

CMC and Ukmet are coming south again with light snow for many areas north of I-20. Looking at satellite loops and RAP/HRRR, the earlier models had this thing making the turn in Arizona by now, it's still diving south from Nevada and could end up in northern Mexico.

[Ntxw]

It didn't just get choked - it literally evaporated. I've watched the tropics for a long, long time, and I don't recall seeing one do that, at least not as quickly as that one did. Dry air has crippled many a tropical system, but to just simply disappear from satellite in a few frames, that's not common.

It was dying as it was heading through the western gulf. There's a billion billion trillion gallons of water for it to work with, even with dry air there's no limit amount of liquid or warm water to build a system, the atmosphere was simply not favorable for it to develop and the dry continental air did the rest as it drew closer from that high. Sure the drought probably added more dry air than usual, but this is not some crazy concept.

Florence in the Atlantic did just that last August was a sprawling tropical storm, hit dry air then a few hours later it went poof