Texas Winter 2012-2013

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dont think ive ever seen a map like that since ive been obsessed with forecasting for the last 7 years.

Is that map the "motherload"? Record breaking temps?

For this time of year? Absolutely. This map might be too cold for us. Im not so sure this would be much fun.

[Ntxw]

To many times this winter I have seen chat of cold and snow and it bust. Is this time around any different? Are confidence levels growing? When should I start really getting excited? (I already am....)


Not blaming anyone, I watch the models and hope for real winter just like everyone else.

Just had my heart broken to many times of late it seems.

Don't trust it but remain optimistic that a modest cold air mass for late feb/march may get trapped underneath blocking.

[Portastorm]

To many times this winter I have seen chat of cold and snow and it bust. Is this time around any different? Are confidence levels growing? When should I start really getting excited? (I already am....)


Not blaming anyone, I watch the models and hope for real winter just like everyone else.

Just had my heart broken to many times of late it seems.

Don't trust it but remain optimistic that a modest cold air mass for late feb/march may get trapped underneath blocking.

I would agree but also say that such an extreme solution, while unlikely at this point, isn't out of the question. Even as you have pointed out Ntxw, if we have a +PNA and strong blocking, it is possible. The takeaway for me from today's model guidance is that something BIG is brewing for next week and beyond. Just how big remains the $64,000 question.

[dhweather]

And now for my Debbie Downer post.

Model guidance tends to have large errors beyond 3-4 days out.

That said, all of the models have seemingly latched on to something significant next weekend. If the next 2-3 runs show similar solutions, then maybe they are onto something.

[vbhoutex]

To many times this winter I have seen chat of cold and snow and it bust. Is this time around any different? Are confidence levels growing? When should I start really getting excited? (I already am....)


Not blaming anyone, I watch the models and hope for real winter just like everyone else.

Just had my heart broken to many times of late it seems.

Don't trust it but remain optimistic that a modest cold air mass for late feb/march may get trapped underneath blocking.

I would agree but also say that such an extreme solution, while unlikely at this point, isn't out of the question. Even as you have pointed out Ntxw, if we have a +PNA and strong blocking, it is possible. The takeaway for me from today's model guidance is that something BIG is brewing for next week and beyond. Just how big remains the $64,000 question.

I would say just how big and WHERE? is the $64K question. I am pretty much sure that SE TX has no chance of any Winter precip this year, but maybe one last freezing(barely) gasp.

[iorange55]

Trying to catch up here, was this something you guys have been watching as a possibility for awhile, or has it kind of popped up out of nowhere?

[wxman57]

I certainly don't like the humongous eastern U.S. upper low that the ECMWF forecasts in 8-9 days. Another big snow storm for Kansas, Missouri to Chicago early next week.

[Ntxw]

Trying to catch up here, was this something you guys have been watching as a possibility for awhile, or has it kind of popped up out of nowhere?

Cold look has been for several days but they haven't shown a direct hit to Texas until today. I'm watching Monday's system, 30-45mph blizzard in Oklahoma on the models but shift it 100-200 miles south and we get to rockin.

[wxman57]

Euro has the storm north of OK - from Kansas NE to Chicago early next week. 12Z GFS is similar to the Euro in that it has the snow in Kansas and northeastward. Are or we talking about something beyond next week? Here's the GFS projected snowcover for early next week. That Kansas bullseye is from the storm Sun/Mon:

[Ntxw]

^ Latest NAM and cmc are bullish for Oklahoma. A tightly wound system should have a N/S deformation band, I don't buy the GFS at all it had a sheared mess in south dakota the other day. Ensembles have been further south than the OP and remain open crossing out of NM

[Portastorm]

There is good in you, wxman57, I have seen it! Come to the light ... the light of winter precipitation and frosty goodness!

The "force" looks to be dumping some mighty cold temperatures your way in about a week's time!

As for the GFS ... HPC has thrown it out the window. It's way too progressive and fast for next week. Read the discussions as they elaborate further.

[South Texas Storms]

Hopefully the storm system on Monday will track further south into Texas so a lot of us can get either more rain or snow.

That 12z Euro run was crazy, and I think it may be on to something as the new and improved CMC has been consistently showing that for several runs now. If those runs verify and we can get a little disturbance with some moisture to work with in that cold air mass, south Texas may get some very rare late season snow! Man I hope so!

[Texas Snowman]

Another snowstorm in Kansas will build a glacier there...

[Portastorm]

Hopefully the storm system on Monday will track further south into Texas so a lot of us can get either more rain or snow.

That 12z Euro run was crazy, and I think it may be on to something as the new and improved CMC has been consistently showing that for several runs now. If those runs verify and we can get a little disturbance with some moisture to work with in that cold air mass, south Texas may get some very rare late season snow! Man I hope so!

Well, per my old friend srainhoutx, there will be extra winter recon missions this weekend with a lot of interest to the east of Hawaii. As he pointed out to me, there clearly is concern/interest in the subtropical jet with that area. The plot for next week, especially later next week, is thickening.

[South Texas Storms]

Hopefully the storm system on Monday will track further south into Texas so a lot of us can get either more rain or snow.

That 12z Euro run was crazy, and I think it may be on to something as the new and improved CMC has been consistently showing that for several runs now. If those runs verify and we can get a little disturbance with some moisture to work with in that cold air mass, south Texas may get some very rare late season snow! Man I hope so!

Well, per my old friend srainhoutx, there will be extra winter recon missions this weekend with a lot of interest to the east of Hawaii. As he pointed out to me, there clearly is concern/interest in the subtropical jet with that area. The plot for next week, especially later next week, is thickening.

Yeah I saw that. It's starting to look like our weather could get really interesting next week.
Ntxw and myself have been telling y'all not to give up hope until after early March. I'm glad this forum is hopping again and we have some model support now!

[orangeblood]

Hopefully the storm system on Monday will track further south into Texas so a lot of us can get either more rain or snow.

That 12z Euro run was crazy, and I think it may be on to something as the new and improved CMC has been consistently showing that for several runs now. If those runs verify and we can get a little disturbance with some moisture to work with in that cold air mass, south Texas may get some very rare late season snow! Man I hope so!

The most interesting systems for those in Central Texas to monitor should be the ones entering the pacific northwest on Monday and Wednesday of this coming week...these have the most potential to carve further south and west over time. With the cold air getting established deep into Texas, one of these shortwaves could turn into a decent winter weather maker. The GFS has no clue how to handle all of these shortwaves moving through the active North Pacific at this time...it should sort it out over the next couple of days.

[Ntxw]

This Monday system is going to be an interesting system to follow. Tulsa has mentioned this in their AFD but the storm could end up so wound up that warm air advection would make areas south and sw of this storm colder than areas to the north/ne of it. 12z Euro ens not playing around. March 20-21, 2010 had a system like this where def band just plowed right on south/se from the NW on the backside.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18z GFS is not onboard, still a bit early for the GFS to catch on though. Maybe at 06z

[Texas Snowman]

Jeepers, the NAM is painting 19-21 inches of snow for Wichita?!? That will be a real live glacier six hours to my north if that verifies.

That would be unreal - 14.2 inches this week, 2nd biggest snow of all-time, followed by an even bigger storm.

Wow. If only that storm will go a little further south!

[GaryHughes]

Jeepers, the NAM is painting 19-21 inches of snow for Wichita?!? That will be a real live glacier six hours to my north if that verifies.

That would be unreal - 14.2 inches this week, 2nd biggest snow of all-time, followed by an even bigger storm.

Wow. If only that storm will go a little further south!

How about 7.5 hours farther South!