Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Yukon Cornelius]

It's a chilly 22 degrees here this morning. It's nice to see some below average temps.

[CaptinCrunch]

It's a chilly 22 degrees here this morning. It's nice to see some below average temps.

It was a crisp 27 at my place this morning, and we will be about 29-30 tonight.

[wxman57]

Down to a bone-chilling 55 in north Houston this morning. Ready for summer... (as always)

[Portastorm]

Down to a bone-chilling 55 in north Houston this morning. Ready for summer... (as always)

Should we send some space heaters over to your office to help?!

I think it may get even colder for you next week, my friend.

[wxman57]

Down to a bone-chilling 55 in north Houston this morning. Ready for summer... (as always)

Should we send some space heaters over to your office to help?!

I think it may get even colder for you next week, my friend.

Yes, I'll need them. I'm already wearing my coat in the office. The AC is running and my thermometer reads a frigid 75.5 deg. Lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s for a couple of days. At least the temperature may reach the mid to upper 60s this weekend - good enough for biking. Not much precip showing up on the metrogram below. I did measure 0.56" yesterday/Wednesday.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Down to a bone-chilling 55 in north Houston this morning. Ready for summer... (as always)

Should we send some space heaters over to your office to help?!

I think it may get even colder for you next week, my friend.

Yes, I'll need them. I'm already wearing my coat in the office. The AC is running and my thermometer reads a frigid 75.5 deg.

I hope the storm of the century hits Oslo and he is stuck there for months.

[wxman57]

I hope the storm of the century hits Oslo and he is stuck there for months.

Just checked and they're forecast to be above freezing most of this week. Highs into the mid 40s, lows 34-35 deg. Well above normal for southern Norway (not Oslo, by the way, but not far west). By the time I get there in mid April the sun will be out 15 hours a day, which could allow temps to soar into the 50s.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I hope the storm of the century hits Oslo and he is stuck there for months.

Just checked and they're forecast to be above freezing most of this week. Highs into the mid 40s, lows 34-35 deg. Well above normal for southern Norway (not Oslo, by the way, but not far west). By the time I get there in mid April the sun will be out 15 hours a day, which could allow temps to soar into the 50s.

All I can hope for then is that their models are doing as well as they are for North America.

[Texas Snowman]

11 a.m., high clouds and sunshine, and its still showing 32 degrees at my house.

Ahhh, winter...

[Ntxw]

There's a bonafide true blizzard coming to the southern plains and no chatter?! Come on guys, sure most models are a bit north than the Red River but they have been going south! Look at the snowpack we've established to our north! Ensembles are giving wiggle room for the stacked low.

[gboudx]

There's a bonafide true blizzard coming to the southern plains and no chatter?! Come on guys, sure most models are a bit north than the Red River but they have been going south! Look at the snowpack we've established to our north!

You want chatter? Okay. Fool me once, shame on you(models). Fool me twice, shame on me. I'm waiting until it's within 24-36 hours before I line up the football.

[Ntxw]

Would 48-60 hours work?

[gboudx]

Still too far out. Too much time for the models to pull the football. But I like the trend.

[gpsnowman]

Where is said storm located now, Ntwx? Is it inland yet?

[Ntxw]

I'll see if I can distract Lucy long enough! By the way the latest CMC updates have proven to be rather refreshing. The other models seem to have trended towards it with the past and present systems. Sample is still small but it has been much more respectable than before the update.

[Ntxw]

Where is said storm located now, Ntwx? Is it inland yet?

Coming into the Pac Nw states tonight

[Portastorm]

I'll see if I can distract Lucy long enough! By the way the latest CMC updates have proven to be rather refreshing. The other models seem to have trended towards it with the past and present systems. Sample is still small but it has been much more respectable than before the update.

All of us ... well ... just about everyone here except for wxman57 ... will want that 12z Canadian run to verify. If it does ... we could end this disappointing winter with some happy/happy.joy/joy!

[South Texas Storms]

I'll see if I can distract Lucy long enough! By the way the latest CMC updates have proven to be rather refreshing. The other models seem to have trended towards it with the past and present systems. Sample is still small but it has been much more respectable than before the update.

You are right Ntxw!

Here is an excerpt from the HPC model discussion this morning:

"DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST MONDAY
PREFERENCE: 00Z UKMET WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN OUTPACE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THIS SYSTEM'S EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE RIDGE/TROUGH
CONFIGURATION THIS SYSTEM PARTIALLY COMPRISES IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH AMERICA, ARGUING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION,
SIMILAR TO THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE. THERE IS AN UPSTREAM KICKER
WITHIN 2000 NM TO ITS WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE UPSTREAM IS NOT
AMPLIFYING, WHICH DOES NOT FAVOR THE SLOWER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER,
BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GEFS MEANS ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY THE NAM/SREF MEAN. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWEST/SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM, TOWARDS THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE.
THE 00Z CANADIAN IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY OF THE GUIDANCE, WHICH FITS
ONE OF ITS TRADITIONAL BIASES WITH CLOSED LOWS. HOWEVER, ITS
PHYSICS WERE UPGRADED LAST WEEK, SO THIS BIAS MAY NO LONGER BE
RELEVANT. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, THE GFS/NAM ARE NOT BEING
CONSIDERED USEFUL AT THIS TIME. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A
COMPROMISE OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE, CLOSEST TO THE 00Z UKMET
WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS CHOICE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SINCE THE
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE YET AMPLIFIED."


The 12z CMC looks even better for the northern half of Texas than the 0z run!

[Texas Snowman]

Ahh, the refreshing sounds of Portastorm coming back from the Dark Side.

With any luck, Porta will be soon exclaiming (in his best Duck Dynasty voice): "You want a winter storm! You got it Jack!"

[gpsnowman]

You are correct Portastorm. I hate to sound like a spoiled brat considering the DFW area has seen three measurable snowfalls this winter, but a late season surprise would erase the doldrums we have had the last few weeks. Seeing other parts of the country get hammered with snow just makes it worse. Oklahoma, Texas panhandle, Kansas, Missouri all getting some fun while we spectate just south. Frustrating.