![Image](http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1613.gif)
WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 25.4S 48.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 48.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.5S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.2S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.6S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.1S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
REBUILDING AROUND THE LLCC AS TC 16S HAS TRACKED BACK OVER WATER.
THIS IS READILY APPARENT IN A 231206Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI
LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES OF 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS THERE IS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS AT MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
LEVELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ALSO MARGINAL AT
25 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 16S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SSTS WILL DECREASE, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SPREAD CONSIDERABLY AFTER TAU 12 WITH A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON TRACK
SPEEDS. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, DUE TO
CONSENSUS SHOWING A MUCH FASTER TRACK AS IT IS BEING PULLED BY THE
MUCH FASTER NOGAPS AND WBAR SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE NOW LARGE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAST TAU 12, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
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