Texas Winter 2012-2013

[dhweather]

And in typical fashion, a very thin line of thundershowers passes through with this "strong" system, and I get a grand total of .19 inches of rain. Sadly, that amount is .19 more than what folks in Austin got.

[Ntxw]

While I feel the pain of Austonians and joke around with 'desertification' of Texas, it's simply not true. Either the rocky mountains expand and cast a deeper rain shadow or the gulf shuts down completely, it's basic geology/meteorology not a string of dry years or even decades. South Texas Storms has a very good point as in previous post I have made note that the drought is easily explainable (super ninas and only one nino in cold pdo) not the desertification of the state.

[weatherdude1108]

And in typical fashion, a very thin line of thundershowers passes through with this "strong" system, and I get a grand total of .19 inches of rain. Sadly, that amount is .19 more than what folks in Austin got.

0.07-inch at the weatherdude Center to be exact (may have gotten a tad more after I left). I think Camp Mabry registered 0.06-inch adding the numbers. 0.04-inch at the airport. Not sure though.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm really beginning to wonder if we are seeing the desertification of Texas take place.

While this is a bit off topic and perhaps merits a new thread by itself, but dhweather I'm beyond wondering ... I really think it's happening. I forget where I heard this but some "expert" said recently that Austin's climate/weather is now like what San Angelo's weather was 15-20 years ago. Those folks who laid down big bucks for "waterfront" property along Lake Travis are probably sick right now. All they have in front of them is dried land and a boatdock sitting on it. Haven't done any research on this but I gotta believe real estate values have dropped.

I also read/heard an article about that. Austin turning into San Angelo. Hope not! But based on what I'm seeing/feeling, feels A LOT like West Texas. Everytime it rains, that West Texas dust spots up the cars -- in Austin.

[weatherdude1108]

While I feel the pain of Austonians and joke around with 'desertification' of Texas, it's simply not true. Either the rocky mountains expand and cast a deeper rain shadow or the gulf shuts down completely, it's basic geology/meteorology not a string of dry years or even decades. South Texas Storms has a very good point as in previous post I have made note that the drought is easily explainable (super ninas and only one nino in cold pdo) not the desertification of the state.

I like your explanation, and prefer it!

[weatherdude1108]

I'm really beginning to wonder if we are seeing the desertification of Texas take place.

While this is a bit off topic and perhaps merits a new thread by itself, but dhweather I'm beyond wondering ... I really think it's happening. I forget where I heard this but some "expert" said recently that Austin's climate/weather is now like what San Angelo's weather was 15-20 years ago. Those folks who laid down big bucks for "waterfront" property along Lake Travis are probably sick right now. All they have in front of them is dried land and a boatdock sitting on it. Haven't done any research on this but I gotta believe real estate values have dropped.

I'm currently taking Atmospheric Climatology at Texas A&M University and my professor is the Texas State Climatologist (John Nielsen-Gammon). I was talking to him a few days ago about long term trends in Texas precipitation. He said Texas has been getting wetter over the past 100 years and it's hard to say why that has happened. He also said we are currently in a long dry spell due to the AMO being positive and the PDO being negative. He thinks this will last until about 2020 and then we should enter another wet period (similar to the 1970s) with the AMO becoming negative and the PDO becoming positive. Overall, he said he thinks Texas should become warmer and therefore slightly drier due to more evaporation occurring.

I heard about Texas becoming wetter also! Seems ironic with all that has happened. We frankly need the "wetter" if we're stuck with the "warmer." Maybe it'll balance itself out.

[orangeblood]

While I feel the pain of Austonians and joke around with 'desertificiation' of Texas, it's simply not true. Either the rocky mountains expand and cast a deeper rain shadow or the gulf shuts down completely, it's basic geology/meteorology not a string to dry years or even decades. South Texas Storms has a very good point as in previous post I have made note that the drought is easily explainable (super ninas and only one nino in cold pdo) not the desertification of the state.

To expand on what Ntxw is saying, the Oceans/Sun are the biggest drivers of our climate and so in turn the biggest drivers of the North American climate would be the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. These two oceans cycle between warm and cold periods. We are currently in a period of a Cold Pacific (negative PDO) and Warm Atlantic (positive AMO) and coincidentally the last time we had a Cold PDO/Warm AMO was the 1950's, which happened to be the worst drought Central Texas experienced in at least 600 years. Below is a chart showing both the PDO and AMO cycles of the past 100 years...

[wxman57]

There were also quite a few major hurricane impacts in the 40s, 50s and 60s - the last time the PDO was cold while the AMO was warm.

[Ntxw]

It seems during that time the mid atlantic and northeast coast were very active with landfalls. Perhaps Sandy and Irene are just the beginnings of a very vulnerable period for them.

Back to modelology! GFS seems to be alone with the flat zonal flow, thank goodness.

[cycloneye]

This is way off-topic but I had to post this as is not looking good for early next winter 2013-2014 (If it pans out) for the members who want to see a real winter in Texas. What is cyclone talking about you may ask? Go here and find out about that hiding little guy.

[WeatherNewbie]

Everytime it rains, that West Texas dust spots up the cars -- in Austin.

Hell, that happens in Dallas too after it rains. I don't think it is indicative of much other than these high wind storms kick up a lot of dust in west Texas and carry it with them as they move across the state.

[orangeblood]

This is way off-topic but I had to post this as is not looking good for early next winter 2013-2014 (If it pans out) for the members who want to see a real winter in Texas. What is cyclone talking about you may ask? Go here and find out about that hiding little guy.

But you're referencing the same models that were predicting a weak el nino to start this winter and we all know how that worked out.....if the models can't even accurately predict ocean temps 3 months in advance, how do we expect the models to do it 9 months in advance ??

[orangeblood]

Back to modelology! GFS seems to be alone with the flat zonal flow, thank goodness.

The Northern Pacific is going to dictate most everything that goes on for us next week....they are having trouble figuring out where the Northern Pacific trough will set up. Is it in the Gulf of Alaska or towards the Aleutians ?? We need the trough to set up further west towards the Aleutians as it will allow energy coming over the top of the western US ridge to dig further west down into the southern plains. The Ukmet and some GFS ensemble members show this but most, like the Euro and GFS, have it in the Gulf of Alaska.

[Ntxw]

I think we'll be fine and the flat GFS will be incorrect, even it predicts the golden combo of teleconnections which all point to amped wavelengths. Arguably we're in the best alignment of signals since Christmas, only thing against us is wxman57 and his longer days!

[orangeblood]

I think we'll be fine and the flat GFS will be incorrect, even it predicts the golden combo of teleconnections which all point to amped wavelengths. Arguably we're in the best alignment of signals since Christmas, only thing against us is wxman57 and his longer days!

Watch the PNA, the Euro is forecasting some of the highest PNA values I've ever seen...if anywhere close to true, all the action will be off to our east unfortunately

[cycloneye]

This is way off-topic but I had to post this as is not looking good for early next winter 2013-2014 (If it pans out) for the members who want to see a real winter in Texas. What is cyclone talking about you may ask? Go here and find out about that hiding little guy.

But you're referencing the same models that were predicting a weak el nino to start this winter and we all know how that worked out.....if the models can't even accurately predict ocean temps 3 months in advance, how do we expect the models to do it 9 months in advance ??

Agreed. And the barrier of Spring when the forecasts from models become less confiable. I am only posting the news.

[Ntxw]

I think we'll be fine and the flat GFS will be incorrect, even it predicts the golden combo of teleconnections which all point to amped wavelengths. Arguably we're in the best alignment of signals since Christmas, only thing against us is wxman57 and his longer days!

Watch the PNA, the Euro is forecasting some of the highest PNA values I've ever seen...if anywhere close to true, all the action will be off to our east unfortunately

If it was just the PNA alone I would definitely be worried but I'm not looking for record cold. Split flow and -NAO will keep it at least stormy and when the transition to the very PNA happens we get a window for a storm to dig in the southern rockies before they shift all east. If the NAO was weakly neg or positive things would just slide right through but fortunately it is forecasted to remain very negative.

[Ntxw]

Check this out from the Euro ensembles. I suspect there are some very deep members in there to drag the consensus that way, perhaps the Canadian isn't so crazy after all. It's not even long range, we're talking within 100 hours!

[Rgv20]

It has been a non existent winter down here in the Valley, I have had 2 or 3 very light freezes. I'm ready for Tropical Season!

[weatherdude1108]

Anyone want to take bets on when (or if) Lake Travis lake levels will fall below last year's levels?


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By August if nothing changes.

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