Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Jarodm12]

it was sleeting this morning at 40. granted the 850mb temp was colder. however it looks like this may be colder than expected and with convection the atmosphere could cool to provide sleet. Not saying it will but this might get interesting

temp down to 37 here in allen dewpoint 32

[KatDaddy]

Its cold! 43°F with winds E-23G32mph here in Weatherford, TX making a windchill of 34F. At Weatherford for work until Friday.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I hope it gets a LOT colder down there (just to make up for those tropical winds you just sent up here).

[Ntxw]

it was sleeting this morning at 40. granted the 850mb temp was colder. however it looks like this may be colder than expected and with convection the atmosphere could cool to provide sleet. Not saying it will but this might get interesting

temp down to 37 here in allen dewpoint 32

It's much warmer above our heads than this morning according to soundings. Chilly down at the surface but where the saturation occurs and falls is mostly above freezing all the way up to ten thousand feet. If it's anything frozen it will be hail. Unless a miracle happens and the 5h low tracks overhead to cool the column.

[GaryHughes]

Just got in Ntwx, any thoughts on the possible winter storm next week?

[Ntxw]

Just got in Ntwx, any thoughts on the possible winter storm next week?

There are several potentials. Not the Sunday/Monday one (if it decides to go further south then it may) but the digging waves when the PNA heads for positive has the most promise. We'll also have a good snow cover to our north, every system will be followed by another likely 2-3 days later.

[GaryHughes]

Ok thanks, feeling a lot under the weather, just wanted to check before I call it done for the night!
Y'all have a good one!

[Ntxw]

Unless the 0z GFS is right. God that was an awful run, dry as a bone with zonal flow.

[Ntxw]

I say we toss the GFS and crown Canadian king it did get updated after all!

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... na&lang=en

[wxman57]

Neither the Canadian nor the Euro has any snow for north Texas Sun/Mon. 00Z Euro is a bit farther north with the snow vs. the 12Z (centered in northern to central Kansas). No freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth next 10 days as per 00Z Euro.

[Portastorm]

Another frontal passage ... another frontal passage with no measurable rainfall.

I've lost count how many times this has happened in the last six months.

Austin: Gateway to the Chihuahuan Desert.

[Portastorm]

Just got in Ntwx, any thoughts on the possible winter storm next week?

There are several potentials. Not the Sunday/Monday one (if it decides to go further south then it may) but the digging waves when the PNA heads for positive has the most promise. We'll also have a good snow cover to our north, every system will be followed by another likely 2-3 days later.

Here is an encouraging snippet from this morning's HPC discussion about next week:

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST... INCREASING CHANCES FOR MODEST
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTHWARD. BACK OUT WEST...
ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE THE TURN NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THEN. THIS ENERGY SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGEST SOME VARIED
SOLUTIONS AFTER THAT... SOME MUCH MORE DEVELOPED THAN OTHERS...
BUT WINTER IS NOT WILLING TO RETREAT JUST YET. COLDER AIR SHOULD
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MIDWEEK BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD.


A further south track should mean some real rain for many of us followed by a nice cooldown.

[wxman57]

The front and a partial line of storms is just to your west, Portastorm. Maybe it'll build a little before it moves through.

[weatherdude1108]

Another frontal passage ... another frontal passage with no measurable rainfall.

I've lost count how many times this has happened in the last six months.

Austin: Gateway to the Chihuahuan Desert.

I don't even get my hopes up anymore when they mention rain in the forecast. Same empty promises. They should change their forecasts to say:

"Today: A 90% chance of sunshine, with desert-like conditions likely. Rain is not out of the question, but we will use this scenario as an outlier given low-confidence is moisture and higher confidence in the Chihuahuan blocking cap."

Hmmm

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-
BEXAR-COMAL-ATASCOSA-
505 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE FOLLOWING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES...
LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...BLANCO...
HAYS...TRAVIS...BEXAR...COMAL...ATASCOSA.

* 20-FOOT WIND...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. AVOID THE USE OF
OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE SPARKS.
ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW QUICKLY INTO
DANGEROUS WIND DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

[weatherdude1108]

I would be interested to see what weather patterns were like here at this time of year (or whenever) during the drought of the 1950s (i.e., Mexican desert cap). Does anyone know where I can find that information? Trying to find an historical correlation to what is happening now. I know the desert periodically expands and contracts given our proximity to it and the Gulf influences.

[Portastorm]

The front and a partial line of storms is just to your west, Portastorm. Maybe it'll build a little before it moves through.

Nope. The southern half of Travis County got a little wind and clouds and that was it. The heavier stuff is up north as usual, closer to the upper level energy. No rain here. But thanks for trying with the encouragement!

[dhweather]

I'm really beginning to wonder if we are seeing the desertification of Texas take place.

[Portastorm]

I'm really beginning to wonder if we are seeing the desertification of Texas take place.

While this is a bit off topic and perhaps merits a new thread by itself, but dhweather I'm beyond wondering ... I really think it's happening. I forget where I heard this but some "expert" said recently that Austin's climate/weather is now like what San Angelo's weather was 15-20 years ago. Those folks who laid down big bucks for "waterfront" property along Lake Travis are probably sick right now. All they have in front of them is dried land and a boatdock sitting on it. Haven't done any research on this but I gotta believe real estate values have dropped.

[South Texas Storms]

The front and a partial line of storms is just to your west, Portastorm. Maybe it'll build a little before it moves through.

Nope. The southern half of Travis County got a little wind and clouds and that was it. The heavier stuff is up north as usual, closer to the upper level energy. No rain here. But thanks for trying with the encouragement!

Yep Porta, SA and Austin missed out again with this system. This pattern is very frustrating for us. The rain just keeps missing us to our north. I think the pattern will become more favorable for rain further south into Texas in March though.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm really beginning to wonder if we are seeing the desertification of Texas take place.

While this is a bit off topic and perhaps merits a new thread by itself, but dhweather I'm beyond wondering ... I really think it's happening. I forget where I heard this but some "expert" said recently that Austin's climate/weather is now like what San Angelo's weather was 15-20 years ago. Those folks who laid down big bucks for "waterfront" property along Lake Travis are probably sick right now. All they have in front of them is dried land and a boatdock sitting on it. Haven't done any research on this but I gotta believe real estate values have dropped.

I'm currently taking Atmospheric Climatology at Texas A&M University and my professor is the Texas State Climatologist (John Nielsen-Gammon). I was talking to him a few days ago about long term trends in Texas precipitation. He said Texas has been getting wetter over the past 100 years and it's hard to say why that has happened. He also said we are currently in a long dry spell due to the AMO being positive and the PDO being negative. He thinks this will last until about 2020 and then we should enter another wet period (similar to the 1970s) with the AMO becoming negative and the PDO becoming positive. Overall, he said he thinks Texas should become warmer and therefore slightly drier due to more evaporation occurring.