Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

At least the the MJO is finally picking up pace after looping around 7 for eons! Lets hope the AO gets tanking and the two tango

Agreed. Did you see the 12z GFS? It continues to show a pattern change at or around 10 days from now. Major trough develops over the west with ridging poking up into the British Columbian west coast. Winter will return to Texas. It may be a brief mid-month period but it will come. The PWC guarantees it!

[gpsnowman]

Well, the line of storms looks impressive. They are coming in a little later that forecast. That might allow some extra heating to occur. Still some peeks of sun here in GP. I wonder how much of an impact this will have on the severity of the squall line? I just want to see liquid fall from the sky.

[Ntxw]

^ There is a tornado watch for eastplexers and severe watch for the rest of us. Hi res guidance suggest supercells could effect NE areas as well as a few central Texas counties this afternoon. Lets all take a break today and keep watch in the USA forum for violent weather. Very spring like set up out there

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

reports from Calgary.....this cold system is coming on hard and leaving quickly (thank you God)!

" What a difference 24 hours can make, I had to wear a face mask this morning, -35 windchill sucks when you have to walk 14 blocks to work!"

"-28 with a feel in the -40 at 7am today. My 3 block walk to work was invigorating.

+1 by Friday "

" Calgary: -20 with a -35 windchill (or so). Within 3 days, +5. Love it here.

The winds last night were so strong, the street sign in front of my house sheared off from its pole. It's now sitting in my yard (didn't hit anything). I'm scared to take a close look at the house itself when I get home from work. "

I got a kick out of this Edmontonian's post yesterday:

" looks cold out.

Underground heated parking at home to underground heated parking at work. Just left the winter jacket in the backseat... in case I might need it".

I think he has the same tropical blood that Wxman57 has.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

My ponderosa pine is now really dancing with each gust.

[wxman57]

At least the the MJO is finally picking up pace after looping around 7 for eons! Lets hope the AO gets tanking and the two tango

Agreed. Did you see the 12z GFS? It continues to show a pattern change at or around 10 days from now. Major trough develops over the west with ridging poking up into the British Columbian west coast. Winter will return to Texas. It may be a brief mid-month period but it will come. The PWC guarantees it!

But check out the GFS past 240 hrs more closely and you'll see the big push of warmth off the Pacific and into NW Canada as that trof develops in the west. Check the 850mb temp prog, for example. 850mb (5000ft) temps in west and NW Canada go from -30C or colder to near 0C beyond 240hrs. There won't be any cold air to come down by then.

[Portastorm]

OK, that's it. I've had it with you wxman57! It's not enough that you pushed Earth a little closer to the sun and that you have prevented any significant winter storms from happening in Texas ... now you're rubbing your boot heel on the few little straws I'm trying to grasp for hope down the road!

To add on my earlier post ... my thoughts are that the pattern starts changing in about 10 days. And far out in GFS la-la land, 288 hours and beyond ... the model has shown a Southern stream storm and some colder, perhaps Polar air moving south as well into the Southern Plains. Do I think winter returns in 10 days? No. But I think the process to a possible change very well may occur then. We shall see. So far my powers have been rendered useless by your evil weather domination!

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

OK, that's it. I've had it with you wxman57! It's not enough that you pushed Earth a little closer to the sun and that you have prevented any significant winter storms from happening in Texas ... now you're rubbing your boot heel on the few little straws I'm trying to grasp for hope down the road!

To add on my earlier post ... my thoughts are that the pattern starts changing in about 10 days. And far out in GFS la-la land, 288 hours and beyond ... the model has shown a Southern stream storm and some colder, perhaps Polar air moving south as well into the Southern Plains. Do I think winter returns in 10 days? No. But I think the process to a possible change very well may occur then. We shall see. So far my powers have been rendered useless by your evil weather domination!

I just pointed out that projected temperature of the air in the source region beyond 10 days might be 30-40F degrees warmer than the air currently there. Don't shoot the messenger.

Lots of grasping at straws going on around here, but there are no signs that indicate a return to the cold of a few weeks ago. Time to nudge the Earth a bit closer to the Sun...

[Ntxw]

Grasping at straws? You bet we are! We're not looking for arctic outbreaks (getting more and more unlikely). We need an anomalously deep system from the subtropical jet with some help from -NAO backtrack blocking! The late system on the Euro is as good as any to be a candidate for me

[wxman57]

Grasping at straws? You bet we are! We're not looking for arctic outbreaks (getting more and more unlikely). We need an anomalously deep system from the subtropical jet with some help from -NAO backtrack blocking! The late system on the Euro is as good as any to be a candidate for me

Would you settle for just some warm rain?

[Ntxw]

Would you settle for just some warm rain?

I would actually, a couple inches of a long soaker would be nice. If you'll make that trade I might consider it

What are your thoughts for summer wxman? Neutral analogs seem fuzzly for me, I know Ninas are the hot ones and Nino wet and cool. Can't seem to fit the years in for neutrals as a category. I think this year's cool neutral might actually feature an active tropical season for Texas

[dhweather]

This month has been a dejavu of most of the last six, with the anomoly being that low that produced rain statewide.

When we do get something to come through, it's a very thin line of thunderstorms, moving quickly. Now, they might be severe, might produce a brief tornado, but they are so thin and moving so quickly, there's just not going to be much rainfall. The pattern continues to take all the significant precip into Oklahoma and further north.

I fear it will be another long dry and warm year, with worsening drought conditions.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:

OK, that's it. I've had it with you wxman57! It's not enough that you pushed Earth a little closer to the sun and that you have prevented any significant winter storms from happening in Texas ... now you're rubbing your boot heel on the few little straws I'm trying to grasp for hope down the road!

To add on my earlier post ... my thoughts are that the pattern starts changing in about 10 days. And far out in GFS la-la land, 288 hours and beyond ... the model has shown a Southern stream storm and some colder, perhaps Polar air moving south as well into the Southern Plains. Do I think winter returns in 10 days? No. But I think the process to a possible change very well may occur then. We shall see. So far my powers have been rendered useless by your evil weather domination!

I just pointed out that projected temperature of the air in the source region beyond 10 days might be 30-40F degrees warmer than the air currently there. Don't shoot the messenger.

Lots of grasping at straws going on around here, but there are no signs that indicate a return to the cold of a few weeks ago. Time to nudge the Earth a bit closer to the Sun...

Yeah, I think you're right wxman57....the source regions look like they're about to get flooded with pacific air from the massive Aleutian trough that's starting to get established in the 7-10 day range. The central plains has a great shot at wintry weather over the next few weeks but it's going to be really tough to get anything, of the wintry weather type, going down here in the southern plains.

I keep on being reminded of last winter because we keep on putting the cold air off another 2 weeks just like we did most of last winter. To put this winter into perspective so far, December 2012 was the 3rd warmest December for DFW over the past 30 years and January 2013 could end up in the top 5 warmest Januarys over the past 30 years

[cycloneye]

I know that when you see this graphic the rest of winter cancel chorus will start but I had to post the truth. This is the GFS ensemble mean temperature anomaly until Mid Febuary.

[wxman57]

Would you settle for just some warm rain?

I would actually, a couple inches of a long soaker would be nice. If you'll make that trade I might consider it

What are your thoughts for summer wxman? Neutral analogs seem fuzzly for me, I know Ninas are the hot ones and Nino wet and cool. Can't seem to fit the years in for neutrals as a category. I think this year's cool neutral might actually feature an active tropical season for Texas

Ah, summer talk - now we're talkin'! Probably a subject for another thread, but this thread appears dead for now. Haven't thought a lot about summer of 2013/hurricane season yet. ENSO looks neutral. Euro is forecasting high pressure to dominate much of the Atlantic Basin.

[weatherdude1108]

The down arrow on my barometer on my weather station is blinking. Means the pressure has gone down 0.15 inHg or greater in my case in the last six hours. It can be set as low as .09 or as high as 0.27 inHg. I left it at 0.15 inHg as the original default. It is 75% accurate according to manufacturer. Last time I had a blinking arrow, it rained three inches here the next day.
We'll see if something happens again. Thinking in the remaining 25% probability (ZILCHO) this go round. Hope not. The pressure here is 29.57 inHg at 2:48pm.

It's also 81.4 degrees.

Not a good start to the year with these Red Flag Warnings.

[wxman57]

Low 90s in south Texas and snow in the panhandle this hour.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

For putting up with the temps that are giving the panhandle snow I expect to see some pretty amazing Calvin and Hobbs snowmen down there!

[Portastorm]

You've done a sorry job Screamer of importing your weather down this way. That's all I have to say about that!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I told you OMW was flexing his muscles this year (and I had everyone here, with grinch like grins, turn their fans your way)