![Image](http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/5808/sh1013.gif)
WTPS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 160.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 160.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.9S 158.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.9S 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.1S 156.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.5S 154.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.5S 147.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.6S 140.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 160.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM WEST
OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
FUEL THE RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 85 KNOTS. THE TRACK SPEED
HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTERACT, INCREASING THE GRADIENT PRESSURE ON THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES THAT ARE REORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ORIENTATION IS NOW IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND HAS
MITIGATED THE HIGH LEVELS (30 TO 40 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS); THE NET EFFECT CONTRIBUTING TO THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO
THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DEFLECT THE CYCLONE TO A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 36, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
APPROACH AND WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING TC 10P TO
ACCELERATE ON A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE CYCLONE; IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. AS TC GARRY TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR ITS RAPID DECAY. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
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