![Image](http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/2882/sh1113.gif)
WTPS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSWALD) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSWALD) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.2S 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.7S 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.8S 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.6S 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.6S 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.7S 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.8S 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 141.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (OSWALD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WELL DEVELOPED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN OLDER
210023Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KNOT WINDS WERE LOCATED IN ALL
QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND ADRM, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ARE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS CREATING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LAND IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAIN OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, AS AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LLCC
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITH AVAILABLE
ENERGY FROM THE WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER THE CORAL SEA. DUE
TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 210421Z JAN 13
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 211430). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
212100Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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