Texas Winter 2012-2013

[aggiecutter]

:uarrow:

You guys need to re-read what the NWS forecaster wrote in that AFD. He explains quite well why the synoptics tonight are different than last night and why a winter "surprise" is a lot less likely.

Sorry. You got your snow and sleet today already! Alright ... whose next in line? Austin? San Antonio? Houston?

The forecasters out of the Shreveport NWS office are predicting a 60% chance of snow for Texarkana tonight. The 18z NAM has introduced moisture back into the Texarkana region tonight. The NAM was the only model that handled the last system correctly. I'm getting tired of these consecutive winter weather events. This will be the third day in a row of sleet or snow. I guess I should move to Austin where winter weather rarely occurs.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 9&site=shv

[TexasF6]

Portastorm isn't as much fun now as he was in the old days!

He will come back. The force that is Wxman57 can only linger so long. It will fade my friend. In time, snow will be his only purpose (and the PWC) again. Their motto, "You want snow, you got it" will ring through every meteorological office again.

"FEAR of no snow is the path to the WARM side of the Force!!! I sense much fear in this forum, much fear...We must unlearn, what we have learned from Wxman57; corrupt you it will..."

-Jedi Snowmaster Yoda

[Brent]

:uarrow:

You guys need to re-read what the NWS forecaster wrote in that AFD. He explains quite well why the synoptics tonight are different than last night and why a winter "surprise" is a lot less likely.

Sorry. You got your snow and sleet today already! Alright ... whose next in line? Austin? San Antonio? Houston?

The forecasters out of the Shreveport NWS office are predicting a 60% chance of snow for Texarkana tonight. The 18z NAM has introduced moisture back into the Texarkana region tonight. The NAM was the only model that handled the last system correctly. I'm getting tired of these consecutive winter weather events. This will be the third day in a row of sleet or snow. I guess I should move to Austin where winter weather rarely occurs.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 9&site=shv

I'll be glad to take some of this snow off your hands. Have watched Dallas get snow 3-4 times and I've yet to have a thing...

[orangeblood]

Looking ahead again (you knew it was coming ) Jan 28th-Feb 2nd ish, look for a potential major system. It should be associated with Arctic front number 2. Could be a phaser with a baja low and incoming low from Alaska and building heights behind it. Keep that in the back of our minds.

Well that would fit the time frame when this monster extratropical cyclone in the North Pacific would arrive on the west coast....this storm according to the GFS will bomb out and deepen to around 932 mb over the next 24 hours. This would make it one of the most rapidly developing storms of all time if it were to verify. Now models still aren't sure where this storm will end up but some have it arriving on the west coast in about 10 days. Something to follow over the next 7-10 days to fit your forecast Ntxw....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I noticed RyanMaues tweets about that storm, would that buckle the jet stream like strong Typhoons do ? That storm is extremely impressive. Def want to keep tabs on that storm and see how it progresses across the Pacific

[Ntxw]

Well that would fit the time frame when this monster extratropical cyclone in the North Pacific would arrive on the west coast....this storm according to the GFS will bomb out and deepen to around 932 mb over the next 24 hours.

I did notice that! It's like the far east version of a nor'easter on steroids! I wasn't using the system as part of the thoughts but it's good that you noticed the connection before me . I wonder if the same drivers are at work like during the fall when a cyclone re-curves in the WPAC translates to cold 7-10 days down the line in NA.

Edit: Looks like TPB got there first to the idea

[TexasF6]

I know this is not supposed to happen? But I see sleet & snow returns on the radar outside of Dallas? Anyone able to confirm this?

[Ntxw]

I know this is not supposed to happen? But I see sleet & snow returns on the radar outside of Dallas? Anyone able to confirm this?

None of the sites underneath report anything, maybe it's virga. We'll know when/if it gets into the metroplex since we have a lot of posters to keep an eye

[GaryHughes]

I know this is not supposed to happen? But I see sleet & snow returns on the radar outside of Dallas? Anyone able to confirm this?

Been watching this myself... I'm in North Parker County, I will let you know shortly as it's approaching my location soon.

Edit : nothing fell at my location.

[dhweather]

Looking ahead again (you knew it was coming ) Jan 28th-Feb 2nd ish, look for a potential major system. It should be associated with Arctic front number 2. Could be a phaser with a baja low and incoming low from Alaska and building heights behind it. Keep that in the back of our minds.

Well that would fit the time frame when this monster extratropical cyclone in the North Pacific would arrive on the west coast....this storm according to the GFS will bomb out and deepen to around 932 mb over the next 24 hours. This would make it one of the most rapidly developing storms of all time if it were to verify. Now models still aren't sure where this storm will end up but some have it arriving on the west coast in about 10 days. Something to follow over the next 7-10 days to fit your forecast Ntxw....

Man, that already looks impressive! 932 this time of year on a cold core is impressive, of course, if it happens.

[dhweather]

Precip? Impossible! It's positively tilted, so it positively won't produce any precip.

[Ntxw]

Man, that already looks impressive! 932 this time of year on a cold core is impressive, of course, if it happens.

Here is NOAA's current analysis of it. It's currently 937mb! Spectacle!

[horselattitudesfarm]

Looking ahead again (you knew it was coming ) Jan 28th-Feb 2nd ish, look for a potential major system. It should be associated with Arctic front number 2. Could be a phaser with a baja low and incoming low from Alaska and building heights behind it. Keep that in the back of our minds.

Well that would fit the time frame when this monster extratropical cyclone in the North Pacific would arrive on the west coast....this storm according to the GFS will bomb out and deepen to around 932 mb over the next 24 hours. This would make it one of the most rapidly developing storms of all time if it were to verify. Now models still aren't sure where this storm will end up but some have it arriving on the west coast in about 10 days. Something to follow over the next 7-10 days to fit your forecast Ntxw....

Must be all that Fukashima radiation!

[vbhoutex]

I'm in the surprise bandwagon for tonight.

Heavy amount of moisture is now coming up from Mexico with the STJ. Should see some precip in SE TX from this within the next few hours.

I'm seeing enough to give me hope of a surprise. First hint was seeing the clouds over Houston as I came home tonight. They are obviously thickening up with more moisture. If that moisture out of S TX makes it here at the right time I think we could get the surprise, especially if the cold core tracks further South. Amatuer? Yes? -removed-? Don't tell anyone or I will get in trouble. Possible? We shall see.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Like you said, we shall see. Temp is 35.2F and falling. Humidity has fallen a bit to 89% as well.

[pwrdog]

Echos picking up near Corpus... Moving NNE... Maybe the start???

[TexasSam]

It's been "misting" here in Baytown for about a hour.

[JackCruz]

Hey second time posting on this forum. I live in the Cypress area..and I'm praying for at least a snow flake or two around here. what radars are you guys looking at?

[TexasSam]

The only working radar in Houston that I know of is Ch. 13's The weather service is down for upgrade.
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/doppler?section=weather/doppler&id=5750607

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us1225.php

Here is the 2004 storms upper air charts as it was developing. Check out the similarities and differences to this low pressure. The main difference seems to be the moisture at the 700 MB level. Well, according to the water vapor imagery, there is plenty of moisture. Im not sure at what level the moisture is at, but there is tons of it. I think we are still a few hours away from anything happening IF something were to even happen. Maybe not till 3AM etc.