#10 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:01 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9S
178.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6S 173.1W, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH
HAS STARTED SHOWING SIGNS OF A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. AN OLDER 142125Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC WAS LOCATED
WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF AN ELONGATED REGION OF TROUGHING
WITH THE STRONGEST OBSERVED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH IS
CREATING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS)
AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL (27 TO 28
CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE STEADILY AS
THE LLCC PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE STRONG VWS, SUBSIDENCE, AND
DECREASING SSTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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