#2 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Jan 04, 2013 12:03 am
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N 84.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WHICH HAS SLOWLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, IN A DIFFLUENT AREA, WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ELONGATED, YET
DEFINED LLCC, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN A 031902Z PARTIAL OSCAT PASS. THIS
PASS SHOWS BROAD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TURNING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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