Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Rgv20]

If you look on the graphic below the 0zECMWF Ensembles are in good agreement (Green Shading) on the Ridge Poking up to Alaska by days 9 and 10....Its hard not to get excited with all the model support and the Pattern that the models are forecasting..

[Snowman67]

I'm guessing by where the models are placing the cold air, southeast Texas won't see much of a cold snap?

The possible cold weather pattern being discussed would not spare SE Texas were it to verify.

[Ntxw]

Euro is crazy. The near 1050 high is building from Central Canada retrograding. If that holds the whole thing is just going to come down. Extreme -NAO and -EPO <- Aleutian low is going to pop it for another high. If that holds we might see some of the most -AO values on record

[iorange55]

Euro is crazy. The near 1050 high is building from Central Canada retrograding. If that holds the whole thing is just going to come down. Extreme -NAO and -EPO <- Aleutian low is going to pop it for another high. If that holds we might see some of the most -AO values on record

Which site do you use to view the Euro? The one I use doesn't seem to have the best maps...

Oh and

[Ntxw]

Which site do you use to view the Euro? The one I use doesn't seem to have the best maps...

Oh and

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 3010512!!/

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=240

[Rgv20]

This is just crazy....we could be looking at some really cold temperatures in the longer range if it were to verify!


Day 9 500mb Height Anomalies



Day 10 500mb Height Anomalies

[BigB0882]

Would Southeast Louisiana be in on the cold or will it stay too far to the our West? I will be mighty upset if it just misses us but would be happy if any of my Texas neighbors could get in on some winter weather with the cold.

[orangeblood]

Yikes...570 DM over Greenland. That's insane!!!

[Ntxw]

Would Southeast Louisiana be in on the cold or will it stay too far to the our West? I will be mighty upset if it just misses us but would be happy if any of my Texas neighbors could get in on some winter weather with the cold.

There's just no way we can say who's going to see what. What we can see is the models are pointing to a very rare set up over North America. The cold is going to overwhelm the pattern wherever one is. Who sees the worst is up for debate. Most of the time the models see something (even then not to this magnitude) and slowly back off. But the exact opposite is happening

[northjaxpro]

That set-up would put the Rockies, The Plains and much of the western U.S. in the deep freeze. Still have lots of time to see how the 500 mb Heights will evolve, but one thing I see consensus with the models is that the Alaskan/Eleutian Ridge will evolve to help drive down the arctic air down into the lower 48 within the next ten days or so.

[GaryHughes]

Have been busy today, not had time to look at models.. what kind of cold would this bring (possible high/lows) to North Texas?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Would Southeast Louisiana be in on the cold or will it stay too far to the our West? I will be mighty upset if it just misses us but would be happy if any of my Texas neighbors could get in on some winter weather with the cold.

you can join the rest of them in counselling sessions!!!!!

So do you Americans have any crops growing *anywhere* down there?????

BTW now is the time to get your Bibles out and start repenting for your sin of being too greedy with your winter/snow dreams!!!

[Ntxw]

The SOI has gone back negative the last several days also. Expect the Subtropical Jet to make noise during that period again as well. I suspect those cold fronts will be associated with some big cyclogenesis from the Gulf/nation in the battle zone between the two air masses.

[Rgv20]

Would Southeast Louisiana be in on the cold or will it stay too far to the our West? I will be mighty upset if it just misses us but would be happy if any of my Texas neighbors could get in on some winter weather with the cold.

you can join the rest of them in counselling sessions!!!!!

So do you Americans have any crops growing *anywhere* down there?????

BTW now is the time to get your Bibles out and start repenting for your sin of being too greedy with your winter/snow dreams!!!

Here in the Valley we have a lot of agricultural interest..we shall see what happens.

Here is a link Screamer http://www.rgvtexas.com/agriculture.htm

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sorry guys. Ntx live in Gonzales just south if baton rouge. They mentioned it yesterday morning in their discussion as well. Talking about artic temps and winter weather for next weekend. They have backed off on severe weather for midweeks system for now as well. Guess they are talking about system behind the midweeks that they thought would bring first round of cold air? Will read lake Charles and Shreveport to see what they say. Afternoons should be out in about two hours or so.

[LaBreeze]

Sorry guys. Ntx live in Gonzales just south if baton rouge. They mentioned it yesterday morning in their discussion as well. Talking about artic temps and winter weather for next weekend. They have backed off on severe weather for midweeks system for now as well. Guess they are talking about system behind the midweeks that they thought would bring first round of cold air? Will read lake Charles and Shreveport to see what they say. Afternoons should be out in about two hours or so.

Thanks Cyclone Mike, let us know what you make out of all of this. Thanks!

[Texas Snowman]

Well, we knew something big ticket was bound to happen again. Maybe this is the year that Vodka cold finds its way to Texas again..

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is pretty wild. -EPO sends no less than 3-5 big highs, that would be a very long duration of intense cold. That Alaska region signature is wicked. That's what I meant by "pop"

[Tejas89]

The end of FW NWS afternoon discussion..

EXTENDED...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX LATE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR MID-WEEK SYSTEM...AND
AS A RESULT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT TO PRODUCE HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. OF COURSE THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 7 TO 8 DAYS OUT...AND ITS FORECAST EVOLUTION MAY CHANGE
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY WITH
NEXT WEEKENDS COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW.

[iorange55]

18z GFS is pretty wild. -EPO sends no less than 3-5 big highs, that would be a very long duration of intense cold. That Alaska region signature is wicked. That's what I meant by "pop"

18z is nuts. It seems like everyday the models get bolder and colder, which is not usually the norm.