Texas Winter 2012-2013

[orangeblood]

Canadian even more aggressive with precip...looks really good for areas northwest of Austin. We see this time and time again with these storms coming out of the southwest...the models almost always have a hard time picking up on moisture availability and usually trend wetter as you get closer to the event.

They are blind to the Pacific, must be those big mountains in Mexico. They always assume down-sloping will dry things out. There are some SREF members even more aggressive

A good example of this was the handling of the system that hit the metroplex a couple of years ago , right before the Super Bowl at Jerry World. Most models showed up to a trace of snow and a lot of areas ended up with 4-6 inches of dry powdery snow...the RUC model dominated this event.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm down with becoming the new Saskatchewan... now wxman57 on the other hand... he'd have to move to the Equator.

[Ntxw]

A good example of this was the handling of the system that hit the metroplex a couple of years ago , right before the Super Bowl at Jerry World. Most models showed up to a trace of snow and a lot of areas ended up with 4-6 inches of dry powdery snow...the RUC model dominated this event.

Yep, as Air Force Met said during that event, follow the vorticity. Lift is a lot stronger than the models will see, and it's also on the back end of the cold. There is a temperature gradient from warm to cold that they seem to miss for instability.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

frick no......but my spidey senses have been tingling all this morning.

Mid to Late January models have the polar Vortex sitting in Screamer's kitchen.

even Knecht had to have a bracing drink hearing that news


now look at the white stuff in that picture carefully.....that is s*n*o*w.

*sigh*

[Ntxw]

*sigh*

Forget the Arctic, how about the new Siberia? Even our fans won't be able to save you (we're kinda chilly already maybe stave off a degree or two). Perhaps sending Wxman57 up there to radiate some heat off his body to warm you up! Even his warm hearted nature lately has been dampened by cold's misery unfortunately

[Tireman4]

*sigh*

Forget the Arctic, how about the new Siberia? Even our fans won't be able to save you (we're kinda chilly already maybe stave off a degree or two). Perhaps sending Wxman57 up there to radiate some heat off his body to warm you up! Even his warm hearted nature lately has been dampened by cold's misery unfortunately

or let him ride through Moose Jaw. He shall bring the heat with him....bwaahhhaaa..Happy New Year Wxman 57!!!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

:

okay show me what you fellows are looking at.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

and they all disappear..........hmmmmmmmmmm.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

:double: :

okay show me what you fellows are looking at.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

:double: :

okay show me what you fellows are looking at.

Now what I'm thinking will get me banned.


Praying the winds are right so I can share all my upcoming joy with you folks (say goodbye to your tropical plants, oranges, grapefruits and whatever other exotics your growing down there).

*sigh*

[ThunderSleetDreams]

mid to long range GFS and Euro ensembles showing the possibility of a full latitude trough. Hello Arctic plunge!

[Ntxw]

Check your pm SaskatchewanScreamer

[wxman57]

*sigh*

Forget the Arctic, how about the new Siberia? Even our fans won't be able to save you (we're kinda chilly already maybe stave off a degree or two). Perhaps sending Wxman57 up there to radiate some heat off his body to warm you up! Even his warm hearted nature lately has been dampened by cold's misery unfortunately

I may have to travel farther south than the Equator to escape the cold later this month. Don't like the look of the long-range GFS pattern and other signals. They don't say 80 degrees for Houston. Just learned it's confirmed I will be traveling to Norway in April on business. I renewed my old passport in 2007 in hopes of a business trip to the Caribbean, not to the North Pole. Typical Norway weather in April is much like today over SE TX. Lows in the 30s, highs in the 40s. 14hrs of sunlight by then, though the sun is not very high over the horizon.

[Ntxw]

I may have to travel farther south than the Equator to escape the cold later this month. Don't like the look of the long-range GFS pattern and other signals. They don't say 80 degrees for Houston. Just learned it's confirmed I will be traveling to Norway in April on business. I renewed my old passport in 2007 in hopes of a business trip to the Caribbean, not to the North Pole. Typical Norway weather in April is much like today over SE TX. Lows in the 30s, highs in the 40s. 14hrs of sunlight by then, though the sun is not very high over the horizon.

We'll at least you'll know you won't be missing anything from Houston! Are you seeing the same pattern set up as I am? It's a rare set up for cold in these parts especially these times. It's very Mcfarland-esque

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I may have to travel farther south than the Equator to escape the cold later this month. Don't like the look of the long-range GFS pattern and other signals. They don't say 80 degrees for Houston. Just learned it's confirmed I will be traveling to Norway in April on business. I renewed my old passport in 2007 in hopes of a business trip to the Caribbean, not to the North Pole. Typical Norway weather in April is much like today over SE TX. Lows in the 30s, highs in the 40s. 14hrs of sunlight by then, though the sun is not very high over the horizon.

We'll at least you'll know you won't be missing anything from Houston! Are you seeing the same pattern set up as I am? It's a rare set up for cold in these parts especially these times. It's very Mcfarland-esque

It does have the McFarland Signature...full latitude trough... whatever you want to call it!



It would be a very rare set up and one that parallels the 1989 blast.

[Ntxw]

It does have the McFarland Signature...full latitude trough... whatever you want to call it!



It would be a very rare set up and one that parallels the 1989 blast.

Not sure about 1989, that's a bit extreme. If it does happen, something more like the 1960s (January 1962). PV would just sit and rotate around Hudson Bay for weeks and shot on shot of cold due to the big -EPO ridging. It's a bit far out to call it historic, just something to think about as we get closer.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

[TexasF6]

Y'all are making my day!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 9 8 9 ! ! ! ! ! ! !

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It does have the McFarland Signature...full latitude trough... whatever you want to call it!



It would be a very rare set up and one that parallels the 1989 blast.

Not sure about 1989, that's a bit extreme. If it does happen, something more like the 1960s (January 1962). PV would just sit and rotate around Hudson Bay for weeks and shot on shot of cold due to the big -EPO ridging. It's a bit far out to call it historic, just something to think about as we get closer.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

The January '62 blast was every bit as cold as some of the colder 1989 readings. Now the synoptic set up wasn't quite the same, but the arctic episode wasn't your run of the mill cold outbreak, it was severe. Now, the 1989 plunge had us below freezing for a long long time. With this episode, it would be more like a 3 day plunge followed by a day or two of moderation before the next plunge came barreling down.

[Comanche]

I see the strato depicted above at 144 hours, what does this mean though since the 240 hour depicts the cold area gone and replaced by warmth in the stratosphere? Does it mean whatever cooling we get from the warming event in the pole region quickly goes away?
I'm guessing here.......

[JackCruz]

What kind of temps are we talking here for Houston? Some teens? And wind chills in the single digits????