WPAC: Sonamu - Severe Tropical Storm
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WPAC: Sonamu - Severe Tropical Storm
South of Guam.
Last edited by Meow on Fri Jan 04, 2013 11:12 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W
GFS predicts that it will be east of Visayas. EARLY START!
Quite organized, more organized than Wukong as an Invest. Happy New Year!
Quite organized, more organized than Wukong as an Invest. Happy New Year!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W
WOOHOO! Happy New Year to everyone on planet earth...
The West Pacific seems to be happy like us producing our first invest of 2013!
The West Pacific seems to be happy like us producing our first invest of 2013!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W
Very interesting track predicated by GFS, could be a crossover storm into the Indian Ocean
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W
This is now a tropical depression as per the RSMC.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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JMA:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 05N 141E WEST 10 KT.
GFS is continuously showing this as a rainmaker in southern PI then as a more organized tropical cyclone in southern Vietnam.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 05N 141E WEST 10 KT.
GFS is continuously showing this as a rainmaker in southern PI then as a more organized tropical cyclone in southern Vietnam.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 92W)
TXPQ21 KNES 010328
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 01/0232Z
C. 4.7N
D. 140.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...INITIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR SYSTEM. VERY BROAD OUTER
BAND SEEN IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR SYSTEM
CENTER. NOT CERTAIN THAT THERE IS A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT
AN EVIDENT RELATIVE ROTATION IN ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY. 2 TENTHS BANDING
GIVES DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RUMINSKI
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 01/0232Z
C. 4.7N
D. 140.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...INITIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR SYSTEM. VERY BROAD OUTER
BAND SEEN IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR SYSTEM
CENTER. NOT CERTAIN THAT THERE IS A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT
AN EVIDENT RELATIVE ROTATION IN ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY. 2 TENTHS BANDING
GIVES DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RUMINSKI
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 92W)
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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PAGASA said this has a little chance to become a tropical cyclone once within the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Yeah like what happened with Wukong last Christmas.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 92W)
wow, so its developing...I've been monitoring this for quite some day, the last time i checked it - its just an LLC without much convection south of chuuk. this one is moving quite fast due to strong easterlies... GFS and NOGAPS are doing good...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 92W)
TXPQ21 KNES 011529
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 01/1432Z
C. 5.5N
D. 134.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER WAS USED FOR THE POSITION AND THIS
RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM CONTINUITY...OVER 300 KM FROM
0832Z FIX. SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING TO THE NW OF THE CSC RESULTS
IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT. CANNOT CONFIRM
EXISTENCE OF CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO LACK OF MICROWAVE DATA.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 01/1432Z
C. 5.5N
D. 134.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER WAS USED FOR THE POSITION AND THIS
RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM CONTINUITY...OVER 300 KM FROM
0832Z FIX. SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING TO THE NW OF THE CSC RESULTS
IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT. CANNOT CONFIRM
EXISTENCE OF CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO LACK OF MICROWAVE DATA.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 92W)
i think it has a much better chance in the south china sea...heavy rains lashing palau at the moment
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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Will there be a January tropical storm in the Northern Hemisphere?
TD
Issued at 13:25 UTC, 2 January 2013
<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°35'(7.6°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°00'(9.0°)
E121°00'(121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
TD
Issued at 13:25 UTC, 2 January 2013
<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°35'(7.6°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°00'(9.0°)
E121°00'(121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 128.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON A 020404Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS, ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON A 020404Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS, ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 92W)
still at 1.0 but this is looking alot like a tropical storm about to make landfall. i've seen worser...once again, dvorak downplaying the excitement...
over 1000 dead from bopha with over 800 more missing, this area is still getting pounded...wukong last month and now this bringing plenty of rain to devastated areas...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 92W)
euro6208 wrote:still at 1.0 but this is looking alot like a tropical storm about to make landfall. i've seen worser...once again, dvorak downplaying the excitement...
over 1000 dead from bopha with over 800 more missing, this area is still getting pounded...wukong last month and now this bringing plenty of rain to devastated areas...
If it is upgraded to a tropical storm, it will be named Sonamu (1301). I never saw a tropical storm in January living in neither the Sulu Sea nor the South China Sea before.
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 92W)
Meow wrote:euro6208 wrote:still at 1.0 but this is looking alot like a tropical storm about to make landfall. i've seen worser...once again, dvorak downplaying the excitement...
over 1000 dead from bopha with over 800 more missing, this area is still getting pounded...wukong last month and now this bringing plenty of rain to devastated areas...
If it is upgraded to a tropical storm, it will be named Sonamu (1301). I never saw a tropical storm in January living in neither the Sulu Sea nor the South China Sea before.
the last time we had a tropical storm in january was in 2008 when tropical storm 01W developed in the SCS...the only tropical cyclone last decade (2000-2010 and counting) to ever develop in the SCS...
before that, we had Tropical Storm Kulap 60 knots- 2005 and Tropical Storm Yanyan 50 knots- 2003...in the open ocean...
to me, it doesn't matter if a storm forms early, each season is like on steriods or something...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 92W)
euro6208 wrote:the last time we had a tropical storm in january was in 2008 when tropical storm 01W developed in the SCS...the only tropical cyclone last decade (2000-2010 and counting) to ever develop in the SCS...
I meant a tropical storm officially named by the JMA. The first one in 2008 was Neoguri, also an impressive early typhoon.
Also, I think the JTWC still has not taken the system seriously, as the JMA already expects that it will become a TS within 24 hours.
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